ACC, PAC-12, and BIG alliance / conference realignment

[HRE Otto IV]

I have thought for a while that they need to split D1 from 2 to 3 divisions. The problem is how? Outside of going back to a attendance requirement, it will be hard to do without issues (gov intervention, or law suits).

I think they should come out and say going forward your 4 year rolling avg has to be at least 25% of the top team's avg. That cuts the fat nicely.

Looking back over the last 4 years:

Michigan is #1 at 110,401.75

So 25% of that would be 27,600.4375 as the minimum.

There were 77 teams that were above that. Only two P4 programs were below. One was Northwestern, who is playing in a temporary stadium. If not for that they would be above.

The other is Duke, who was at 25,020.5 so they would have to fudge the numbers by giving out cheap tickets. They are rich enough to pull it off, but nearly 3k a year isn't easy.

The other P4 programs under 30k were Wake (29,930.25), Vandy (29,384), Stanford (29,347.5), and SMU (28,442.75). Wake has been pretty much between 27k and 30k every year teh last 7 years. I think they would be safe. Vandy had a big year last year (nearly 35k) that helped a lot. I think they would be able to make sure they are fine. Stanford has been down lately. Is it because they are not good or has joining the ACC hurt more? I still think they have nothing to worry about. SMU has been over 32k the last two years in the ACC, so they are fine.

For the G6 schools in order

Over 30k
Fresno State
East Carolina
Boise State
South Florida
Appalachian State
Oregon State
Navy

The above would all be safe.

Under 30k but above the 25% mark
Colorado State
Memphis
Army
UNLV

I don't think any of these would have an issue staying above. Maybe UNLV but the new stadium has seemed to help.

Teams that have a shot (above 25k)
San Deigo State
Air Force
UTSA
Washington State
UConn

San Diego State is close so I could see them making it. Similar for Air Force. UTSA had a bad 2024 otherwise they are right there. Same thing with Washington State in 2024. UConn was over 30k last year. Would fans show up though if they were 4-8 but in the big leagues?

I don't think anyone under 25k would be able to get there. Tulane is only at 23,665.5 so they seem too far. Playing better competition and being a nice road trip might bump that slightly but 4k? Similarly JMU is at 24,446.75 playing SBC teams. Can they get 3k more playing real teams?


Another question would be do the service academies want to be in FBS-A over FBS-AA? They will have a hard time competing, Plus Army and Navy would be FB onlies for a conference.

If they chose not to then we are at an 75-80 teams FBS-A which seems prefect.

 

[HtownOrange]

I have thought for a while that they need to split D1 from 2 to 3 divisions. The problem is how? Outside of going back to a attendance requirement, it will be hard to do without issues (gov intervention, or law suits).

I think they should come out and say going forward your 4 year rolling avg has to be at least 25% of the top team's avg. That cuts the fat nicely.

Looking back over the last 4 years:

Michigan is #1 at 110,401.75

So 25% of that would be 27,600.4375 as the minimum.

There were 77 teams that were above that. Only two P4 programs were below. One was Northwestern, who is playing in a temporary stadium. If not for that they would be above.

The other is Duke, who was at 25,020.5 so they would have to fudge the numbers by giving out cheap tickets. They are rich enough to pull it off, but nearly 3k a year isn't easy.

The other P4 programs under 30k were Wake (29,930.25), Vandy (29,384), Stanford (29,347.5), and SMU (28,442.75). Wake has been pretty much between 27k and 30k every year teh last 7 years. I think they would be safe. Vandy had a big year last year (nearly 35k) that helped a lot. I think they would be able to make sure they are fine. Stanford has been down lately. Is it because they are not good or has joining the ACC hurt more? I still think they have nothing to worry about. SMU has been over 32k the last two years in the ACC, so they are fine.

For the G6 schools in order

Over 30k
Fresno State
East Carolina
Boise State
South Florida
Appalachian State
Oregon State
Navy

The above would all be safe.

Under 30k but above the 25% mark
Colorado State
Memphis
Army
UNLV

I don't think any of these would have an issue staying above. Maybe UNLV but the new stadium has seemed to help.

Teams that have a shot (above 25k)
San Deigo State
Air Force
UTSA
Washington State
UConn

San Diego State is close so I could see them making it. Similar for Air Force. UTSA had a bad 2024 otherwise they are right there. Same thing with Washington State in 2024. UConn was over 30k last year. Would fans show up though if they were 4-8 but in the big leagues?

I don't think anyone under 25k would be able to get there. Tulane is only at 23,665.5 so they seem too far. Playing better competition and being a nice road trip might bump that slightly but 4k? Similarly JMU is at 24,446.75 playing SBC teams. Can they get 3k more playing real teams?


Another question would be do the service academies want to be in FBS-A over FBS-AA? They will have a hard time competing, Plus Army and Navy would be FB onlies for a conference.

If they chose not to then we are at an 75-80 teams FBS-A which seems prefect.

Your intent is good. However, the Rutgers turnstiles and tickets "sold" disagree. The fudging is already occuring and it does not help the matter in the least.
Minimum attendance was already tried and, well, ask Temple. Making more rules to regulate the matter and allowing room for "fudging" the numbers is a waste of time.

I don't know what the right answer is but there is a right answer. Unfortunately, like most things in life it takes good moral character to keep good things in place. I think most posters on this site agree that neither the NCAA has any good moral character nor do most of the major players in the NCAA have any good moral character.

Good moral character = integrity and honesty.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

Your intent is good. However, the Rutgers turnstiles and tickets "sold" disagree. The fudging is already occuring and it does not help the matter in the least.
Minimum attendance was already tried and, well, ask Temple. Making more rules to regulate the matter and allowing room for "fudging" the numbers is a waste of time.

I don't know what the right answer is but there is a right answer. Unfortunately, like most things in life it takes good moral character to keep good things in place. I think most posters on this site agree that neither the NCAA has any good moral character nor do most of the major players in the NCAA have any good moral character.

Good moral character = integrity and honesty.

You need a mechanism to exclude schools. I don't see any other way without it getting messy.

You can only do so much fudging. If a school is at 23k historically they would need to eat nearly 5k tickets a year just to make the minimum.

They also need a home conference. They can try going Indy but that will only last a year or two because they have no one to play. Plus what do they do with BBall and other sports?

 

[HRE Otto IV]

I have thought for a while that they need to split D1 from 2 to 3 divisions. The problem is how? Outside of going back to a attendance requirement, it will be hard to do without issues (gov intervention, or law suits).

I think they should come out and say going forward your 4 year rolling avg has to be at least 25% of the top team's avg. That cuts the fat nicely.

Looking back over the last 4 years:

Michigan is #1 at 110,401.75

So 25% of that would be 27,600.4375 as the minimum.

There were 77 teams that were above that. Only two P4 programs were below. One was Northwestern, who is playing in a temporary stadium. If not for that they would be above.

The other is Duke, who was at 25,020.5 so they would have to fudge the numbers by giving out cheap tickets. They are rich enough to pull it off, but nearly 3k a year isn't easy.

The other P4 programs under 30k were Wake (29,930.25), Vandy (29,384), Stanford (29,347.5), and SMU (28,442.75). Wake has been pretty much between 27k and 30k every year teh last 7 years. I think they would be safe. Vandy had a big year last year (nearly 35k) that helped a lot. I think they would be able to make sure they are fine. Stanford has been down lately. Is it because they are not good or has joining the ACC hurt more? I still think they have nothing to worry about. SMU has been over 32k the last two years in the ACC, so they are fine.

For the G6 schools in order

Over 30k
Fresno State
East Carolina
Boise State
South Florida
Appalachian State
Oregon State
Navy

The above would all be safe.

Under 30k but above the 25% mark
Colorado State
Memphis
Army
UNLV

I don't think any of these would have an issue staying above. Maybe UNLV but the new stadium has seemed to help.

Teams that have a shot (above 25k)
San Deigo State
Air Force
UTSA
Washington State
UConn

San Diego State is close so I could see them making it. Similar for Air Force. UTSA had a bad 2024 otherwise they are right there. Same thing with Washington State in 2024. UConn was over 30k last year. Would fans show up though if they were 4-8 but in the big leagues?

I don't think anyone under 25k would be able to get there. Tulane is only at 23,665.5 so they seem too far. Playing better competition and being a nice road trip might bump that slightly but 4k? Similarly JMU is at 24,446.75 playing SBC teams. Can they get 3k more playing real teams?


Another question would be do the service academies want to be in FBS-A over FBS-AA? They will have a hard time competing, Plus Army and Navy would be FB onlies for a conference.

If they chose not to then we are at an 75-80 teams FBS-A which seems prefect.

BTW

SU is at 38,858 which is 58th nationally and 11th in the ACC. Only one G6 is ahead of us (Fresno State).

By conference avg it lines up with how I would also rank them based on quality:

SEC 79,369 - only one school is under 52,500 per game.

B1G 64,816 - despite having the Top 3 schools they are dragged down by the middle and bottom of the conference. A third of the conference is under 50k.

B12 48,114 - they only have one over 60k but only 2 under 40k.

ACC 46,060 - we have 3 schools better than the B12's #1. But 11 under 50k and 6 under 40k.

PAC 28,331 - big gap with the ACC.

AAC 24,164 - the top is decent and made up of OG schools. The bottom half is all recent adds.

SBC 20,433 - they are surprisingly pretty close to the top of the G6.

MWC 18,508 - they add North Dakota State this year which should bring that down slightly.

MAC 14,138 - I am sure MACtion doesn't help their numbers.

CUSA 14,072

 

[shandeezy7]

I have thought for a while that they need to split D1 from 2 to 3 divisions. The problem is how? Outside of going back to a attendance requirement, it will be hard to do without issues (gov intervention, or law suits).

I think they should come out and say going forward your 4 year rolling avg has to be at least 25% of the top team's avg. That cuts the fat nicely.

Looking back over the last 4 years:

Michigan is #1 at 110,401.75

So 25% of that would be 27,600.4375 as the minimum.

There were 77 teams that were above that. Only two P4 programs were below. One was Northwestern, who is playing in a temporary stadium. If not for that they would be above.

The other is Duke, who was at 25,020.5 so they would have to fudge the numbers by giving out cheap tickets. They are rich enough to pull it off, but nearly 3k a year isn't easy.

The other P4 programs under 30k were Wake (29,930.25), Vandy (29,384), Stanford (29,347.5), and SMU (28,442.75). Wake has been pretty much between 27k and 30k every year teh last 7 years. I think they would be safe. Vandy had a big year last year (nearly 35k) that helped a lot. I think they would be able to make sure they are fine. Stanford has been down lately. Is it because they are not good or has joining the ACC hurt more? I still think they have nothing to worry about. SMU has been over 32k the last two years in the ACC, so they are fine.

For the G6 schools in order

Over 30k
Fresno State
East Carolina
Boise State
South Florida
Appalachian State
Oregon State
Navy

The above would all be safe.

Under 30k but above the 25% mark
Colorado State
Memphis
Army
UNLV

I don't think any of these would have an issue staying above. Maybe UNLV but the new stadium has seemed to help.

Teams that have a shot (above 25k)
San Deigo State
Air Force
UTSA
Washington State
UConn

San Diego State is close so I could see them making it. Similar for Air Force. UTSA had a bad 2024 otherwise they are right there. Same thing with Washington State in 2024. UConn was over 30k last year. Would fans show up though if they were 4-8 but in the big leagues?

I don't think anyone under 25k would be able to get there. Tulane is only at 23,665.5 so they seem too far. Playing better competition and being a nice road trip might bump that slightly but 4k? Similarly JMU is at 24,446.75 playing SBC teams. Can they get 3k more playing real teams?


Another question would be do the service academies want to be in FBS-A over FBS-AA? They will have a hard time competing, Plus Army and Navy would be FB onlies for a conference.

If they chose not to then we are at an 75-80 teams FBS-A which seems prefect.

Going that route would necessitate an unaffiliated third party "overseer" to certify that attendance numbers are accurate, which I assume would be quite costly.

 

[HtownOrange]

Going that route would necessitate an unaffiliated third party "overseer" to certify that attendance numbers are accurate, which I assume would be quite costly.

Do you mean a third party like what the NCAA was supposed to be?

I agree, a third party is necessary, but one with teeth, substance and character. When Big State U cheats, penalties must be at least three times the benefit the cheating garners plus all expenses. I.e. not attending classes, loose scholarships X3 for each year of the cheating.

 

[shandeezy7]

Do you mean a third party like what the NCAA was supposed to be?

I agree, a third party is necessary, but one with teeth, substance and character. When Big State U cheats, penalties must be at least three times the benefit the cheating garners plus all expenses. I.e. not attending classes, loose scholarships X3 for each year of the cheating.

I was thinking kind of like a Deloitte type auditing firm that verifies numbers are true, but it may have to be even more involved than that.

 

[Hoo's That]

The main thing to keep in mind with any proposed reorganization of D-1 is to let the schools still have access to the CBS D-1 basketball tournament money. That's what drives most of the elevations. Their football subdivision is really meaningless. Whether the Sun Belt Conference is FBS or some other letter combination isn't going to affect who's in the playoff in the majority of years. JMU's getting in was a "perfect storm" fluke this year that's unlikely to happen again. Don't chase flies with a sledgehammer.

 

[SU68]

BTW

SU is at 38,858 which is 58th nationally and 11th in the ACC. Only one G6 is ahead of us (Fresno State).

By conference avg it lines up with how I would also rank them based on quality:

SEC 79,369 - only one school is under 52,500 per game.

B1G 64,816 - despite having the Top 3 schools they are dragged down by the middle and bottom of the conference. A third of the conference is under 50k.

B12 48,114 - they only have one over 60k but only 2 under 40k.

ACC 46,060 - we have 3 schools better than the B12's #1. But 11 under 50k and 6 under 40k.

PAC 28,331 - big gap with the ACC.

AAC 24,164 - the top is decent and made up of OG schools. The bottom half is all recent adds.

SBC 20,433 - they are surprisingly pretty close to the top of the G6.

MWC 18,508 - they add North Dakota State this year which should bring that down slightly.

MAC 14,138 - I am sure MACtion doesn't help their numbers.

CUSA 14,072

With maybe four exceptions, SU has stunk for a quarter century. If SU can consistently produce a good to "above good" team each year, we would easily have 40,000+

 

[Rufus_13th]

BTW

SU is at 38,858 which is 58th nationally and 11th in the ACC. Only one G6 is ahead of us (Fresno State).

By conference avg it lines up with how I would also rank them based on quality:

SEC 79,369 - only one school is under 52,500 per game.

B1G 64,816 - despite having the Top 3 schools they are dragged down by the middle and bottom of the conference. A third of the conference is under 50k.

B12 48,114 - they only have one over 60k but only 2 under 40k.

ACC 46,060 - we have 3 schools better than the B12's #1. But 11 under 50k and 6 under 40k.

PAC 28,331 - big gap with the ACC.

AAC 24,164 - the top is decent and made up of OG schools. The bottom half is all recent adds.

SBC 20,433 - they are surprisingly pretty close to the top of the G6.

MWC 18,508 - they add North Dakota State this year which should bring that down slightly.

MAC 14,138 - I am sure MACtion doesn't help their numbers.

CUSA 14,072

Gee..its like there's a Power 4 or something

 

[HRE Otto IV]

Gee..its like there's a Power 4 or something

That is the point we need a Power FBS and cut out all of these other schools. The current 68 P4 and a dozen or so of the Top G6s should be in one division. The other 60 or so teams should be with the Top FCS teams in another. Leaving the rest of FCS as the third D1 tier.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

With maybe four exceptions, SU has stunk for a quarter century. If SU can consistently produce a good to "above good" team each year, we would easily have 40,000+

With the reduced capacity a big game has less pull than it did before. That could hurt.

From 2018-2025 we avg'd 38,157 per year. The high was 42,164 (2019) and the low was 32,461 (2021 was covid impacted). If you take away 2021 then it was a 39,107 avg.

 

[TampaLaker]

Your intent is good. However, the Rutgers turnstiles and tickets "sold" disagree. The fudging is already occuring and it does not help the matter in the least.
Minimum attendance was already tried and, well, ask Temple. Making more rules to regulate the matter and allowing room for "fudging" the numbers is a waste of time.

I don't know what the right answer is but there is a right answer. Unfortunately, like most things in life it takes good moral character to keep good things in place. I think most posters on this site agree that neither the NCAA has any good moral character nor do most of the major players in the NCAA have any good moral character.

Good moral character = integrity and honesty.

I don’t know that the people in the group do not have any integrity. I think the big issue they really have no real investigative authority. You can know (believe you know) that someone is cheating the system, but proving it judicially is a whole other thing. Unless you have power to compel testimony and punish for lying, you really are dependent on the honesty and integrity of others. And how many young people are going to say, “oh yeah they paid me under the table. Please take that money away from me.”

 

[Blanko97]

BTW

SU is at 38,858 which is 58th nationally and 11th in the ACC. Only one G6 is ahead of us (Fresno State).

By conference avg it lines up with how I would also rank them based on quality:

SEC 79,369 - only one school is under 52,500 per game.

B1G 64,816 - despite having the Top 3 schools they are dragged down by the middle and bottom of the conference. A third of the conference is under 50k.

B12 48,114 - they only have one over 60k but only 2 under 40k.

ACC 46,060 - we have 3 schools better than the B12's #1. But 11 under 50k and 6 under 40k.

PAC 28,331 - big gap with the ACC.

AAC 24,164 - the top is decent and made up of OG schools. The bottom half is all recent adds.

SBC 20,433 - they are surprisingly pretty close to the top of the G6.

MWC 18,508 - they add North Dakota State this year which should bring that down slightly.

MAC 14,138 - I am sure MACtion doesn't help their numbers.

CUSA 14,072

im actually quite surprised how high the Go5 average attendance is

 

[HRE Otto IV]

im actually quite surprised how high the Go5 average attendance is

The SWAC (FCS, 12 teams) had an avg of 12,303 last year. That isn't far behind from most of the G6.

 

[Hoo's That]

I don’t know that the people in the group do not have any integrity. I think the big issue they really have no real investigative authority. You can know (believe you know) that someone is cheating the system, but proving it judicially is a whole other thing. Unless you have power to compel testimony and punish for lying, you really are dependent on the honesty and integrity of others. And how many young people are going to say, “oh yeah they paid me under the table. Please take that money away from me.”

^^This^^ The NCAA is only allowed to do what the member schools allow it to do. One big complaint was, "Why doesn't the NCAA stop the conference realignment madness?" Very simple answer, "Because the member schools didn't allow it to get involved." I hate having to defend Indianoplace. Yes, they've done some really stupid things. That said, they're being saddled with the blame for things they weren't allowed to to handle.

 

[Newhouser]

^^This^^ The NCAA is only allowed to do what the member schools allow it to do. One big complaint was, "Why doesn't the NCAA stop the conference realignment madness?" Very simple answer, "Because the member schools didn't allow it to get involved." I hate having to defend Indianoplace. Yes, they've done some really stupid things. That said, they're being saddled with the blame for things they weren't allowed to to handle.

The NCAA worked for the schools. They are the villains here.

 

[HtownOrange]

I don’t know that the people in the group do not have any integrity. I think the big issue they really have no real investigative authority. You can know (believe you know) that someone is cheating the system, but proving it judicially is a whole other thing. Unless you have power to compel testimony and punish for lying, you really are dependent on the honesty and integrity of others. And how many young people are going to say, “oh yeah they paid me under the table. Please take that money away from me.”

You agree, the schools lack integrity as they make up and control the NCAA.

Your analogy is the murders will not vote murder as a crime. Respectfully, that kinda proves they lack integrity. In your example those breaking the rules will not beg for punishment. Nobody has argued that. If they had integrity to begin with, they would not have ventures outside the rules. And let's not forget, the violators include the money men (and women), the coaches, the schools, the players, and the NCAA officials.

The rules are there for consistency and standards. Without enforcement, the rules are purely based on integrity. The NCAA lost any and all moral authority when failing to stand up the threats of lawsuits by Big State Universities.

 

[WoadBlue]

I have thought for a while that they need to split D1 from 2 to 3 divisions. The problem is how? Outside of going back to a attendance requirement, it will be hard to do without issues (gov intervention, or law suits).

I think they should come out and say going forward your 4 year rolling avg has to be at least 25% of the top team's avg. That cuts the fat nicely.

Looking back over the last 4 years:

Michigan is #1 at 110,401.75

So 25% of that would be 27,600.4375 as the minimum.

There were 77 teams that were above that. Only two P4 programs were below. One was Northwestern, who is playing in a temporary stadium. If not for that they would be above.

The other is Duke, who was at 25,020.5 so they would have to fudge the numbers by giving out cheap tickets. They are rich enough to pull it off, but nearly 3k a year isn't easy.

The other P4 programs under 30k were Wake (29,930.25), Vandy (29,384), Stanford (29,347.5), and SMU (28,442.75). Wake has been pretty much between 27k and 30k every year teh last 7 years. I think they would be safe. Vandy had a big year last year (nearly 35k) that helped a lot. I think they would be able to make sure they are fine. Stanford has been down lately. Is it because they are not good or has joining the ACC hurt more? I still think they have nothing to worry about. SMU has been over 32k the last two years in the ACC, so they are fine.

For the G6 schools in order

Over 30k
Fresno State
East Carolina
Boise State
South Florida
Appalachian State
Oregon State
Navy

The above would all be safe.

Under 30k but above the 25% mark
Colorado State
Memphis
Army
UNLV

I don't think any of these would have an issue staying above. Maybe UNLV but the new stadium has seemed to help.

Teams that have a shot (above 25k)
San Deigo State
Air Force
UTSA
Washington State
UConn

San Diego State is close so I could see them making it. Similar for Air Force. UTSA had a bad 2024 otherwise they are right there. Same thing with Washington State in 2024. UConn was over 30k last year. Would fans show up though if they were 4-8 but in the big leagues?

I don't think anyone under 25k would be able to get there. Tulane is only at 23,665.5 so they seem too far. Playing better competition and being a nice road trip might bump that slightly but 4k? Similarly JMU is at 24,446.75 playing SBC teams. Can they get 3k more playing real teams?


Another question would be do the service academies want to be in FBS-A over FBS-AA? They will have a hard time competing, Plus Army and Navy would be FB onlies for a conference.

If they chose not to then we are at an 75-80 teams FBS-A which seems prefect.

I do not see anybody with power in the SEC or BT caring a piece of cat crap about anybody's attendance being a line for inclusion. I think they intend to decide who gets to be in the new Top Tier that they design. They do not intend to lose any power they now are able to act on, and allowing some entity to oversee a system bad on anything other than their agreement is one that will bother them.

So, regardless of attendance numbers, I think they are going to allow the new Top Tier to be no more than a P4. And many of them would prefer a P3. with many others most-preferring just SEC and BT, with each league expanded to a total of 20, maybe up to 24 members.

They are driven hard by Greed and lust for Power.

 

[baggerbob]

I do not see anybody with power in the SEC or BT caring a piece of cat crap about anybody's attendance being a line for inclusion. I think they intend to decide who gets to be in the new Top Tier that they design. They do not intend to lose any power they now are able to act on, and allowing some entity to oversee a system bad on anything other than their agreement is one that will bother them.

So, regardless of attendance numbers, I think they are going to allow the new Top Tier to be no more than a P4. And many of them would prefer a P3. with many others most-preferring just SEC and BT, with each league expanded to a total of 20, maybe up to 24 members.

They are driven hard by Greed and lust for Power.

The minimum in the power conferences when they finally break away is 60. Probably closer to 70. You aren’t going to eliminate states like New York, and some others without bring dragged into court. And Texas and California have schools not in the big 2 which would lose a lot of money. Those states could keep them in court for 20+ years. And if states sue which they would congress would do nothing.