ACC, PAC-12, and BIG alliance / conference realignment

[HRE Otto IV]

I have thought for a while that they need to split D1 from 2 to 3 divisions. The problem is how? Outside of going back to a attendance requirement, it will be hard to do without issues (gov intervention, or law suits).

I think they should come out and say going forward your 4 year rolling avg has to be at least 25% of the top team's avg. That cuts the fat nicely.

Looking back over the last 4 years:

Michigan is #1 at 110,401.75

So 25% of that would be 27,600.4375 as the minimum.

There were 77 teams that were above that. Only two P4 programs were below. One was Northwestern, who is playing in a temporary stadium. If not for that they would be above.

The other is Duke, who was at 25,020.5 so they would have to fudge the numbers by giving out cheap tickets. They are rich enough to pull it off, but nearly 3k a year isn't easy.

The other P4 programs under 30k were Wake (29,930.25), Vandy (29,384), Stanford (29,347.5), and SMU (28,442.75). Wake has been pretty much between 27k and 30k every year teh last 7 years. I think they would be safe. Vandy had a big year last year (nearly 35k) that helped a lot. I think they would be able to make sure they are fine. Stanford has been down lately. Is it because they are not good or has joining the ACC hurt more? I still think they have nothing to worry about. SMU has been over 32k the last two years in the ACC, so they are fine.

For the G6 schools in order

Over 30k
Fresno State
East Carolina
Boise State
South Florida
Appalachian State
Oregon State
Navy

The above would all be safe.

Under 30k but above the 25% mark
Colorado State
Memphis
Army
UNLV

I don't think any of these would have an issue staying above. Maybe UNLV but the new stadium has seemed to help.

Teams that have a shot (above 25k)
San Deigo State
Air Force
UTSA
Washington State
UConn

San Diego State is close so I could see them making it. Similar for Air Force. UTSA had a bad 2024 otherwise they are right there. Same thing with Washington State in 2024. UConn was over 30k last year. Would fans show up though if they were 4-8 but in the big leagues?

I don't think anyone under 25k would be able to get there. Tulane is only at 23,665.5 so they seem too far. Playing better competition and being a nice road trip might bump that slightly but 4k? Similarly JMU is at 24,446.75 playing SBC teams. Can they get 3k more playing real teams?


Another question would be do the service academies want to be in FBS-A over FBS-AA? They will have a hard time competing, Plus Army and Navy would be FB onlies for a conference.

If they chose not to then we are at an 75-80 teams FBS-A which seems prefect.

 

[HtownOrange]

I have thought for a while that they need to split D1 from 2 to 3 divisions. The problem is how? Outside of going back to a attendance requirement, it will be hard to do without issues (gov intervention, or law suits).

I think they should come out and say going forward your 4 year rolling avg has to be at least 25% of the top team's avg. That cuts the fat nicely.

Looking back over the last 4 years:

Michigan is #1 at 110,401.75

So 25% of that would be 27,600.4375 as the minimum.

There were 77 teams that were above that. Only two P4 programs were below. One was Northwestern, who is playing in a temporary stadium. If not for that they would be above.

The other is Duke, who was at 25,020.5 so they would have to fudge the numbers by giving out cheap tickets. They are rich enough to pull it off, but nearly 3k a year isn't easy.

The other P4 programs under 30k were Wake (29,930.25), Vandy (29,384), Stanford (29,347.5), and SMU (28,442.75). Wake has been pretty much between 27k and 30k every year teh last 7 years. I think they would be safe. Vandy had a big year last year (nearly 35k) that helped a lot. I think they would be able to make sure they are fine. Stanford has been down lately. Is it because they are not good or has joining the ACC hurt more? I still think they have nothing to worry about. SMU has been over 32k the last two years in the ACC, so they are fine.

For the G6 schools in order

Over 30k
Fresno State
East Carolina
Boise State
South Florida
Appalachian State
Oregon State
Navy

The above would all be safe.

Under 30k but above the 25% mark
Colorado State
Memphis
Army
UNLV

I don't think any of these would have an issue staying above. Maybe UNLV but the new stadium has seemed to help.

Teams that have a shot (above 25k)
San Deigo State
Air Force
UTSA
Washington State
UConn

San Diego State is close so I could see them making it. Similar for Air Force. UTSA had a bad 2024 otherwise they are right there. Same thing with Washington State in 2024. UConn was over 30k last year. Would fans show up though if they were 4-8 but in the big leagues?

I don't think anyone under 25k would be able to get there. Tulane is only at 23,665.5 so they seem too far. Playing better competition and being a nice road trip might bump that slightly but 4k? Similarly JMU is at 24,446.75 playing SBC teams. Can they get 3k more playing real teams?


Another question would be do the service academies want to be in FBS-A over FBS-AA? They will have a hard time competing, Plus Army and Navy would be FB onlies for a conference.

If they chose not to then we are at an 75-80 teams FBS-A which seems prefect.

Your intent is good. However, the Rutgers turnstiles and tickets "sold" disagree. The fudging is already occuring and it does not help the matter in the least.
Minimum attendance was already tried and, well, ask Temple. Making more rules to regulate the matter and allowing room for "fudging" the numbers is a waste of time.

I don't know what the right answer is but there is a right answer. Unfortunately, like most things in life it takes good moral character to keep good things in place. I think most posters on this site agree that neither the NCAA has any good moral character nor do most of the major players in the NCAA have any good moral character.

Good moral character = integrity and honesty.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

Your intent is good. However, the Rutgers turnstiles and tickets "sold" disagree. The fudging is already occuring and it does not help the matter in the least.
Minimum attendance was already tried and, well, ask Temple. Making more rules to regulate the matter and allowing room for "fudging" the numbers is a waste of time.

I don't know what the right answer is but there is a right answer. Unfortunately, like most things in life it takes good moral character to keep good things in place. I think most posters on this site agree that neither the NCAA has any good moral character nor do most of the major players in the NCAA have any good moral character.

Good moral character = integrity and honesty.

You need a mechanism to exclude schools. I don't see any other way without it getting messy.

You can only do so much fudging. If a school is at 23k historically they would need to eat nearly 5k tickets a year just to make the minimum.

They also need a home conference. They can try going Indy but that will only last a year or two because they have no one to play. Plus what do they do with BBall and other sports?

 

[HRE Otto IV]

I have thought for a while that they need to split D1 from 2 to 3 divisions. The problem is how? Outside of going back to a attendance requirement, it will be hard to do without issues (gov intervention, or law suits).

I think they should come out and say going forward your 4 year rolling avg has to be at least 25% of the top team's avg. That cuts the fat nicely.

Looking back over the last 4 years:

Michigan is #1 at 110,401.75

So 25% of that would be 27,600.4375 as the minimum.

There were 77 teams that were above that. Only two P4 programs were below. One was Northwestern, who is playing in a temporary stadium. If not for that they would be above.

The other is Duke, who was at 25,020.5 so they would have to fudge the numbers by giving out cheap tickets. They are rich enough to pull it off, but nearly 3k a year isn't easy.

The other P4 programs under 30k were Wake (29,930.25), Vandy (29,384), Stanford (29,347.5), and SMU (28,442.75). Wake has been pretty much between 27k and 30k every year teh last 7 years. I think they would be safe. Vandy had a big year last year (nearly 35k) that helped a lot. I think they would be able to make sure they are fine. Stanford has been down lately. Is it because they are not good or has joining the ACC hurt more? I still think they have nothing to worry about. SMU has been over 32k the last two years in the ACC, so they are fine.

For the G6 schools in order

Over 30k
Fresno State
East Carolina
Boise State
South Florida
Appalachian State
Oregon State
Navy

The above would all be safe.

Under 30k but above the 25% mark
Colorado State
Memphis
Army
UNLV

I don't think any of these would have an issue staying above. Maybe UNLV but the new stadium has seemed to help.

Teams that have a shot (above 25k)
San Deigo State
Air Force
UTSA
Washington State
UConn

San Diego State is close so I could see them making it. Similar for Air Force. UTSA had a bad 2024 otherwise they are right there. Same thing with Washington State in 2024. UConn was over 30k last year. Would fans show up though if they were 4-8 but in the big leagues?

I don't think anyone under 25k would be able to get there. Tulane is only at 23,665.5 so they seem too far. Playing better competition and being a nice road trip might bump that slightly but 4k? Similarly JMU is at 24,446.75 playing SBC teams. Can they get 3k more playing real teams?


Another question would be do the service academies want to be in FBS-A over FBS-AA? They will have a hard time competing, Plus Army and Navy would be FB onlies for a conference.

If they chose not to then we are at an 75-80 teams FBS-A which seems prefect.

BTW

SU is at 38,858 which is 58th nationally and 11th in the ACC. Only one G6 is ahead of us (Fresno State).

By conference avg it lines up with how I would also rank them based on quality:

SEC 79,369 - only one school is under 52,500 per game.

B1G 64,816 - despite having the Top 3 schools they are dragged down by the middle and bottom of the conference. A third of the conference is under 50k.

B12 48,114 - they only have one over 60k but only 2 under 40k.

ACC 46,060 - we have 3 schools better than the B12's #1. But 11 under 50k and 6 under 40k.

PAC 28,331 - big gap with the ACC.

AAC 24,164 - the top is decent and made up of OG schools. The bottom half is all recent adds.

SBC 20,433 - they are surprisingly pretty close to the top of the G6.

MWC 18,508 - they add North Dakota State this year which should bring that down slightly.

MAC 14,138 - I am sure MACtion doesn't help their numbers.

CUSA 14,072

 

[shandeezy7]

I have thought for a while that they need to split D1 from 2 to 3 divisions. The problem is how? Outside of going back to a attendance requirement, it will be hard to do without issues (gov intervention, or law suits).

I think they should come out and say going forward your 4 year rolling avg has to be at least 25% of the top team's avg. That cuts the fat nicely.

Looking back over the last 4 years:

Michigan is #1 at 110,401.75

So 25% of that would be 27,600.4375 as the minimum.

There were 77 teams that were above that. Only two P4 programs were below. One was Northwestern, who is playing in a temporary stadium. If not for that they would be above.

The other is Duke, who was at 25,020.5 so they would have to fudge the numbers by giving out cheap tickets. They are rich enough to pull it off, but nearly 3k a year isn't easy.

The other P4 programs under 30k were Wake (29,930.25), Vandy (29,384), Stanford (29,347.5), and SMU (28,442.75). Wake has been pretty much between 27k and 30k every year teh last 7 years. I think they would be safe. Vandy had a big year last year (nearly 35k) that helped a lot. I think they would be able to make sure they are fine. Stanford has been down lately. Is it because they are not good or has joining the ACC hurt more? I still think they have nothing to worry about. SMU has been over 32k the last two years in the ACC, so they are fine.

For the G6 schools in order

Over 30k
Fresno State
East Carolina
Boise State
South Florida
Appalachian State
Oregon State
Navy

The above would all be safe.

Under 30k but above the 25% mark
Colorado State
Memphis
Army
UNLV

I don't think any of these would have an issue staying above. Maybe UNLV but the new stadium has seemed to help.

Teams that have a shot (above 25k)
San Deigo State
Air Force
UTSA
Washington State
UConn

San Diego State is close so I could see them making it. Similar for Air Force. UTSA had a bad 2024 otherwise they are right there. Same thing with Washington State in 2024. UConn was over 30k last year. Would fans show up though if they were 4-8 but in the big leagues?

I don't think anyone under 25k would be able to get there. Tulane is only at 23,665.5 so they seem too far. Playing better competition and being a nice road trip might bump that slightly but 4k? Similarly JMU is at 24,446.75 playing SBC teams. Can they get 3k more playing real teams?


Another question would be do the service academies want to be in FBS-A over FBS-AA? They will have a hard time competing, Plus Army and Navy would be FB onlies for a conference.

If they chose not to then we are at an 75-80 teams FBS-A which seems prefect.

Going that route would necessitate an unaffiliated third party "overseer" to certify that attendance numbers are accurate, which I assume would be quite costly.

 

[HtownOrange]

Going that route would necessitate an unaffiliated third party "overseer" to certify that attendance numbers are accurate, which I assume would be quite costly.

Do you mean a third party like what the NCAA was supposed to be?

I agree, a third party is necessary, but one with teeth, substance and character. When Big State U cheats, penalties must be at least three times the benefit the cheating garners plus all expenses. I.e. not attending classes, loose scholarships X3 for each year of the cheating.

 

[shandeezy7]

Do you mean a third party like what the NCAA was supposed to be?

I agree, a third party is necessary, but one with teeth, substance and character. When Big State U cheats, penalties must be at least three times the benefit the cheating garners plus all expenses. I.e. not attending classes, loose scholarships X3 for each year of the cheating.

I was thinking kind of like a Deloitte type auditing firm that verifies numbers are true, but it may have to be even more involved than that.

 

[Hoo's That]

The main thing to keep in mind with any proposed reorganization of D-1 is to let the schools still have access to the CBS D-1 basketball tournament money. That's what drives most of the elevations. Their football subdivision is really meaningless. Whether the Sun Belt Conference is FBS or some other letter combination isn't going to affect who's in the playoff in the majority of years. JMU's getting in was a "perfect storm" fluke this year that's unlikely to happen again. Don't chase flies with a sledgehammer.

 

[SU68]

BTW

SU is at 38,858 which is 58th nationally and 11th in the ACC. Only one G6 is ahead of us (Fresno State).

By conference avg it lines up with how I would also rank them based on quality:

SEC 79,369 - only one school is under 52,500 per game.

B1G 64,816 - despite having the Top 3 schools they are dragged down by the middle and bottom of the conference. A third of the conference is under 50k.

B12 48,114 - they only have one over 60k but only 2 under 40k.

ACC 46,060 - we have 3 schools better than the B12's #1. But 11 under 50k and 6 under 40k.

PAC 28,331 - big gap with the ACC.

AAC 24,164 - the top is decent and made up of OG schools. The bottom half is all recent adds.

SBC 20,433 - they are surprisingly pretty close to the top of the G6.

MWC 18,508 - they add North Dakota State this year which should bring that down slightly.

MAC 14,138 - I am sure MACtion doesn't help their numbers.

CUSA 14,072

With maybe four exceptions, SU has stunk for a quarter century. If SU can consistently produce a good to "above good" team each year, we would easily have 40,000+