Bubble Watch - Thursday Tourney Week

[cuseattle]

Indiana just went from tied to up 13 in about 3 minutes.

 

[pearl31]

Must be nice to win tournament games especially when you need them

Good times

hey come on, I feel really good about us winning an acct game on of these years

 

[pearl31]

oh btw Palm has Cal up to a 5 seed now

 

[jdubs30]

I'm thinking getting to the final game might just put them in...

They become interesting at that point for sure.

Let's assume they get there (beating SC and UK) - that'd give them 4 top 50 wins; 6 top 100 wins. However, 4 of those wins would be away from home - which is a plus. However their RPI/SOS right now stands at 91/75. Obviously their RPI would go up with those 2 wins, but it still wouldn't be great (similar to us).

They have 3 losses between 110 - 154; similar to us (they don't have a BC-bad loss though). They have 5 road wins right now which is a good number - but 3 of them are vs. 144 or worse RPI.

I think it's a decent overall resume. But 6 top 100 wins and 3 110+ losses with an SOS in 90s isn't a quality overall resume. I think our resume compares favorable to theirs - even though they'd end up with 3 top 35 neutral/road wins if they make it to the SEC final. But only 3 other top 100 wins besides that...

 

[raf4488]

oh btw Palm has Cal up to a 5 seed now

Something that makes me feel a bit better is that Palm is an outlier on us. Everyone else has us in or right on the cut line

 

[jdubs30]

To be honest pearl31 - UGA is more of threat than Alabama will be.

 

[jdubs30]

Butler up by 4 at half vs. X - IU up by 13 with 12min left against Iowa. Both of those results staying where they are would be great.

 

[Cuse House]

Something that makes me feel a bit better is that Palm is an outlier on us. Everyone else has us in or right on the cut line

He is an RPI fanatic. Really just comes down to how heavily the committee weighs RPI.

 

[raf4488]

To be honest pearl31 - UGA is more of threat than Alabama will be.

The SEC does worry me since the league blows and someone random could make the title game and get hot against UK. Like when UGA knocked us out in 2008

 

[20Plus]

My dad has a tough choice - cheer for his alma mater Iowa Hawkeyes or for their bubble to burst and help us out just a little. Bad new guys - I think the alma mater is going to win out.

His blood is red not orange

 

[raf4488]

Someone tell Iowa the second half started awhile ago

 

[pearl31]

To be honest pearl31 - UGA is more of threat than Alabama will be.

yep absolutely, especially with Maten back now

 

[jdubs30]

Curious if TCU's win will get less weight today due to Jackson being out?

 

[Cuse House]

Curious if TCU's win will get less weight today due to Jackson being out?

I mean it has to, right?

 

[pearl31]

eh it's still quite weighty

 

[jdubs30]

I mean it has to, right?

It will help their ultimate numbers - but I tend to agree I would think it has to be a consideration

 

[pearl31]

nice Indiana up 19 with 7:30 remaining

 

[jdubs30]

IU is primed. It's nice to get Iowa out of the way - but the way Wisconsin is playing I definitely wouldn't be surprised if IU up-ends them.

Nice to see 2 of the biggest bubble threats for the B10 go down today.

 

[bpo57]

It's 18 games out of 30-something. So obviously it matters in that it's a significant portion of the team's season. Not because they are "conference games." You might as well figure out a team's combined record on Tuesdays and Sundays and use it as a reason for why the team will or won't be dancing because of what their record is on those days. It's just as relevant.

Problem with your theory is that teams with lousy conference records are competing with teams from their own conference for NCAAT berths. You finish 2-3 games behind some other bubble team in your conference then you're probably toast.

 

[raf4488]

TAMU is copying Iowa now

 

[pearl31]

TAMU is copying Iowa now

they've been mostly terrible all year

 

[jdubs30]

Lundari's "last First 4 Out" team is Houston? Really? Man this bubble is soft...

He has us ahead of Wake it looks like.

 

[raf4488]

How important is this Vandy game? We want them to lose but I have to think a W here isn't a difference maker

 

[jdubs30]

How important is this Vandy game? We want them to lose but I have to think a W here isn't a difference maker

Vandy is ahead of us, IMO. However, if a team is close to us, we always want them to lose. This would give Vandy 15 losses. I think they'll be in regardless, but it's not bad to have a team directly ahead of us lose to a team like A&M. Who knows - the committee m ight not love Vandy

 

[orangenirvana]

Hoosiers making a statement