Bubble Watch - Week of February 18 to 24

[MSOrange]

Play in game against Wake Forest in this bracket

Bracketology: USC-Miami, Xavier-Michigan matchups highlight potential 1st round

 

[Madbiker]

Really feel beating Duke is the last shot. Don't see this team winning more than 1, at most, in ACCT. We need a great effort Wednesday night.

 

[Tom W.]

So do we root for Iowa State or Texas Tech? I feel like a loss puts Texas tech almost totally out, but I don't think Iowa State is quite a lock yet, and a string of L's could put them out...

 

[pearl31]

So do we root for Iowa State or Texas Tech? I feel like a loss puts Texas tech almost totally out, but I don't think Iowa State is quite a lock yet, and a string of L's could put them out...

Iowa St

 

[OttoinGrotto]

hey guys/gals! we heart Lunardi again! he's still got us as one of last 4 byes in his updated bracket today!

View attachment 89941

This changes nothing between Lunardi and I.

 

[NineOneSeven]

So do we root for Iowa State or Texas Tech? I feel like a loss puts Texas tech almost totally out, but I don't think Iowa State is quite a lock yet, and a string of L's could put them out...

I hate that phrase eye test but f it... TT is a tournament team

They have had some really tight losses and have some great wins

 

[pearl31]

I hate that phrase eye test but f it... TT is a tournament team

They have had some really tight losses and have some great wins

very similar to us, resume wise (and rpi wise too)

 

[jncuse]

This week's Schedule (Feb 20-Feb 23). Probabilities based on Sagarin


Standings at Monday. February 20

Kansas St 41 - Wed vs Oklahoma St (51%)
Michigan St 41 - Thurs vs Nebraska (75%)
Cal 39 - Wed vs Oregon (34%)
Seton Hall 36 - Wed vs Xavier (48%)
Marquette 35 - Tues vs St. John's (81%)
Illinois St 27 - Wed vs Southern Illinois (88%)
TCU 26 - Wed at Kansas (14%)
Georgia Tech 23 - Tues vs NC St (63%)

----IN / OUT LINE----------

Syracuse 16 - Wed vs Duke (33%)
Clemson 14 - Tues at Virginia Tech (43%)
Tennessee 13 - Wed vs Vanderbilt (64%)
Wake Forest 7 - Wed vs Pitt (74%)
Rhode Island 5 - Tues at Lasalle (64%)
Providence 3 - Wed At Creighton (17%)
Vanderbilt 3 - Wed at Tennessee (36%)
Houston 2 - Wed vs UConn (78%)
Alabama 2 - Thurs vs Georgia (54%)
Texas Tech 2 - Mon vs Iowa St (46%)
Pitt 2 - Wed at Pitt (26%)

19 Games to Watch - 13 at Home, 6 on the Road. Some of these teams on the bubble are very weak IMO. But they are a 3 game winning streak from probably being in.

 

[jncuse]

This Texas Tech - Iowa St is a great game. Texas Tech just blew an easy lay up to take the lead with a minute lead. Could be another painful loss for them.

 

[pearl31]

overtime now

 

[jncuse]

Updated standings as now 70 brackets updated today. No real changes from before. Seems to be quite a bit of uncertainty after Seton Hall and Marquette.

Standings at Monday. February 20 (out of 70)

Michigan St 69 - Thurs vs Nebraska (75%)
Kansas St 68 - Wed vs Oklahoma St (51%)
Cal 67 - Wed vs Oregon (34%)
Seton Hall 61 - Wed vs Xavier (48%)
Marquette 61 - Tues vs St. John's (81%)
Illinois St 47 - Wed vs Southern Illinois (88%)
TCU 46 - Wed at Kansas (14%)
Georgia Tech 35 - Tues vs NC St (63%)

----IN / OUT LINE----------

Syracuse 25 - Wed vs Duke (33%)
Clemson 19 - Tues at Virginia Tech (43%)
Tennessee 19 - Wed vs Vanderbilt (64%)
Wake Forest 11 - Wed vs Pitt (74%)
Rhode Island 8 - Tues at Lasalle (64%)
Providence 6 - Wed At Creighton (17%)
Vanderbilt 5 - Wed at Tennessee (36%)
Houston 5 - Wed vs UConn (78%)
Georgetown 2 - Wed vs Depaul (91%)
Alabama 2 - Thurs vs Georgia (54%)
Texas Tech 2 - Mon vs Iowa St (46%)
Pitt 2 - Wed at Wake Forest (26%)

One thing I noticed is that we would like our Old Big East friends to help us this week with wins - St. John's, UConn, Pitt and Depaul... asking Depaul to help out is probably a little much.

 

[jncuse]

Texas Tech finds some horrible ways too lose... how can you not even get a shot off.

 

[pearl31]

yep that's one bullet dodged

 

[Louie and Bouie]

Crazy ending in that one. Good for the Cuse.

 

[jncuse]

At some point you have to win. As mentioned by Pearl a few times they are very similar to us in terms of ratings:

KP has them at #36... yet their RPI falls to #100 after this loss.

 

[NineOneSeven]

View attachment 89945

At some point you have to win. As mentioned by Pearl a few times they are very similar to us in terms of ratings:

KP has them at #36... yet their RPI falls to #100 after this loss.


View attachment 89946

Insane how Many close losses. Agree you have to win but to Me they are a tourney team. Unless they are directly eliminating us of course

 

[obliterata]

I don't think Miami winning is a good thing for SU. Virginia's a lock no matter what happens. Miami could've potentially lost their remaining 4 games and finished 8-10 behind SU's 9-9 or 10-8 (we hope). Prior to tonight the only good win they had was beating UNC, I think they're going to get a bid now.

 

[jdubs30]

According to Briancuse this officially eliminates Tech because now they have 10 conference losses

 

[jdubs30]

I don't think Miami winning is a good thing for SU. Virginia's a lock no matter what happens. Miami could've potentially lost their remaining 4 games and finished 8-10 behind SU's 9-9 or 10-8 (we hope). Prior to tonight the only good win they had was beating UNC, I think they're going to get a bid now.

Miami was as close to a lock as you can get. I see what you're getting at - but the chance of MIami completely collapsing was slim.

If this does anything, it improves Miami's RPI, which is good for us.

Tech losing was big though

 

[20Plus]

Updated standings as now 70 brackets updated today. No real changes from before. Seems to be quite a bit of uncertainty after Seton Hall and Marquette.

Standings at Monday. February 20 (out of 70)

Michigan St 69 - Thurs vs Nebraska (75%)
Kansas St 68 - Wed vs Oklahoma St (51%)
Cal 67 - Wed vs Oregon (34%)
Seton Hall 61 - Wed vs Xavier (48%)
Marquette 61 - Tues vs St. John's (81%)
Illinois St 47 - Wed vs Southern Illinois (88%)
TCU 46 - Wed at Kansas (14%)
Georgia Tech 35 - Tues vs NC St (63%)

----IN / OUT LINE----------

Syracuse 25 - Wed vs Duke (33%)
Clemson 19 - Tues at Virginia Tech (43%)
Tennessee 19 - Wed vs Vanderbilt (64%)
Wake Forest 11 - Wed vs Pitt (74%)
Rhode Island 8 - Tues at Lasalle (64%)
Providence 6 - Wed At Creighton (17%)
Vanderbilt 5 - Wed at Tennessee (36%)
Houston 5 - Wed vs UConn (78%)
Georgetown 2 - Wed vs Depaul (91%)
Alabama 2 - Thurs vs Georgia (54%)
Texas Tech 2 - Mon vs Iowa St (46%)
Pitt 2 - Wed at Wake Forest (26%)

One thing I noticed is that we would like our Old Big East friends to help us this week with wins - St. John's, UConn, Pitt and Depaul... asking Depaul to help out is probably a little much.

This does not match the most updated bracket matrix from last night

 

[Cusefan0307]

I don't think Miami winning is a good thing for SU. Virginia's a lock no matter what happens. Miami could've potentially lost their remaining 4 games and finished 8-10 behind SU's 9-9 or 10-8 (we hope). Prior to tonight the only good win they had was beating UNC, I think they're going to get a bid now.

They always were. If you look at Miami and UVA's resume next to each other before last night blind you wouldn't see much of a difference.

 

[jncuse]

This does not match the most updated bracket matrix from last night

My totals will typically never be a direct match because I am only pulling current info off the site to make my observations. I am only accumulating the totals of the 70 brackets updated yesterday and ignoring the 41 brackets posted before yesterday which don't consider our last game.

The only reason they show as "in" on the matrix is because of the 41 brackets before the Georgia Tech game. We will be on the outside the next time the matrix is updated and some of those older ones are rolled off.

 

[Tom W.]

Looking at the games for today, I'm thinking these are the results we want:

-La Salle over Rhode Island

-SC over Florida

-VT over Clemson

-GM over Dayton (Unlikely Dayton completely falls off but the more losses they have at the end, the better if they lose in conference tourney)

- Illinois over NW (I'm not convinced NW is anywhere near a lock yet)

-NC State over GT (Big one)

-Evansville over Wichita State

-St Johns over Marquette

Did I miss anything?

 

[jncuse]

Let's talk Vanderbilt. I noticed they are in on 4 of 29 brackets today. They play at Tennessee on Wednesday, which could be a significant win for them.

Actually have to go, but this is an interesting one.

 

[pearl31]

Let's talk Vanderbilt. I noticed they are in on 4 of 29 brackets today. They play at Tennessee on Wednesday, which could be a significant win for them.

Actually have to go, but this is an interesting one.

yeah geez Vandy might be this year's version of Vandy last year... they're perhaps (along with Wake) the ultimate golden RPI combined with no record or big wins to show for it... so yeah I suppose we actually have to pull for Tenn in that one