Buffalo Bills - Draft / Free Agency

[chugg21]

If he's there, could we ever pass on this guy? 6'4 225, less than 2% body fat (allegedly) and runs like this.
Ole Miss WR D.K. Metcalf continues to impress at NFL combine with absurdly quick 40 times

Pretty sure that low % of body fat is actually a negative. End up like David Boston and always end up injured at that level. I just hope that Sweat has pushed up into the top 8 now along with Bosa, Allen, Q.Williams and that 2 QBs go up there too. That would basically guarantee someone out of the Gary, Oliver, White group or any of the WRs or O-lineman.

 

[IthacaBarrel]

I really think the Bills will wind up trading down in the draft. Just seems that Beane wants to wheel and deal for as many picks as possible but we shall see.

 

[chugg21]

I really think the Bills will wind up trading down in the draft. Just seems that Beane wants to wheel and deal for as many picks as possible but we shall see.

Issue is that there needs to be a guy that someone wants to come up for. My hope is that they are able to drop down to the 12/13 range, pick up a 3rd and still have their choice of top OL/WR. Issue is, who is going to be available at 9 that someone is going to be willing to give up that draft capital to come up and get. Maybe someone falls in love with Sweat and he's there. Gary if he falls down a bit. Who knows I guess.

 

[chugg21]

Anyone else hoping that management swings for the fences and makes a legit offer for Antonio Brown?

He is the perfect receiver for Allen’s skill set.

I'm not. Guy is going to be 31 before the season starts so even though he would certainly help Allen a ton on the field, the timeline just doesn't match good enough to take a chance on a volatile guy that might end up being just as much of a negative as a positive on Allen's development. If he was 28, I'd be way more willing to take the chance but I imagine the cost is probably pick 40 and that pick is vital with FA being so awful and having some glaring needs.

 

[IthacaBarrel]

I'm not. Guy is going to be 31 before the season starts so even though he would certainly help Allen a ton on the field, the timeline just doesn't match good enough to take a chance on a volatile guy that might end up being just as much of a negative as a positive on Allen's development. If he was 28, I'd be way more willing to take the chance but I imagine the cost is probably pick 40 and that pick is vital with FA being so awful and having some glaring needs.

Agreed and I don't see it happening, Bills are taking a long term approach and from everything you see from Beane and McDermott this is not the type of guy they want in their locker room. In addition, Brown won't want to be in Buffalo and will be nothing but a headache, how long before he throws J Allen under the bus after a couple of missed passes? Hard pass on this dude

 

[NateW]

I'm not. Guy is going to be 31 before the season starts so even though he would certainly help Allen a ton on the field, the timeline just doesn't match good enough to take a chance on a volatile guy that might end up being just as much of a negative as a positive on Allen's development. If he was 28, I'd be way more willing to take the chance but I imagine the cost is probably pick 40 and that pick is vital with FA being so awful and having some glaring needs.

Isn’t the new trend to overpay other positions now and try to win the SB while the franchise QB is on his rookie contract?

I say go for it.

I’m hoping to trade down from 9 anyways and recoup some picks.

 

[IthacaBarrel]

Isn’t the new trend to overpay other positions now and try to win the SB while the franchise QB is on his rookie contract?

I say go for it.

I’m hoping to trade down from 9 anyways and recoup some picks.

True, I think if you are a player or two away that is the model but not seeing it with Buffalo

 

[Melancer46]

Isn’t the new trend to overpay other positions now and try to win the SB while the franchise QB is on his rookie contract?

I say go for it.

I’m hoping to trade down from 9 anyways and recoup some picks.

Yeah, this is where I'm at. If arguably the best WR in the league only costs us a 2nd round pick, I'd happily pay that. Might be able to trade down from 9 and get a 2nd round pick back in the package too.

I like this year's WR draft class a ton, but at the end of the day, they're all gambles to a degree. I want Allen to have at least one WR that he can count on. Brown is obviously one of those guys; nobody else on the roster is definitely a guy like that and the same goes for this draft class.

I don't think it's the end of the world if Buffalo doesn't bring in Brown, but I'd definitely be happy if they did.

 

[Melancer46]

Prospects that Buffalo has met with at the Combine, organized by where these players are likely drafted (at the moment at least):

For #9 pick:
DT Ed Oliver
DE Brian Burns
DT/DE Rashan Gary
WR DK Metcalf
OT/OG/C Jonah Williams
OT/OG Cody Ford
OT Jawaan Taylor

Trade down or #40 pick:
WR Kelvin Harmon
WR Hollywood Brown
WR JJ Arcega-Whiteside (a slide to Round 3 is possible IMO)
TE Irv Smith Jr (a slide to Round 3 is possible IMO)
OG/OT Dalton Risner
C Erik McCoy
OT/OG Bobby Evans (a slide to Round 3 is possible IMO)
OT Greg Little
OT Kaleb McGary (a slide to Round 3 is possible IMO)

Round 3 or later:
WR Riley Ridley
TE Isaac Nauta
OG Dru Samia
RB Bryce Love

 

[chugg21]

Isn’t the new trend to overpay other positions now and try to win the SB while the franchise QB is on his rookie contract?

I say go for it.

I’m hoping to trade down from 9 anyways and recoup some picks.

It is if you are a couple pieces away, doesn't really work when you are starting from scratch and are bereft of talent all over the place. Best case scenario is that they are ready to make a push in maybe 2020 but more likely 2021. At that point Brown is 33 which is the age that WRs start to crap out.

I'm dying for any type of actual NFL quality starting WR, let alone maybe the best one but pairing our 22 year old QB with a 30 year old RB and 31 year old WR probably isn't the best way to point the franchise forward.

 

[chugg21]

Greedy Williams coming in at 4.37 at 6'2 might have just moved himself back into contention for taking up a spot in the top 8 too. Really looks like we are going to have a bunch of really good options at 9. Think we can say at this point with a reasonable degree of certainty that Bosa, Allen, Q.Williams, Murray, Haskins are going to be gone. That only leaves 3 more slots before we're up and a whole lot of quality. Gary could and should probably be put in that list of guys that will be gone but someone is going to have to drop and he's more likely than any of the others given that his production at Michigan didn't match up with the expectations and ability. Sweat, Metcalf crushed the combine, Oliver, Greedy & White all did what they were expected as guys that have been considered top 10 types all year. That's without even getting to the O-line guys.

 

[Toga]

Greedy Williams coming in at 4.37 at 6'2 might have just moved himself back into contention for taking up a spot in the top 8 too. Really looks like we are going to have a bunch of really good options at 9. Think we can say at this point with a reasonable degree of certainty that Bosa, Allen, Q.Williams, Murray, Haskins are going to be gone. That only leaves 3 more slots before we're up and a whole lot of quality. Gary could and should probably be put in that list of guys that will be gone but someone is going to have to drop and he's more likely than any of the others given that his production at Michigan didn't match up with the expectations and ability. Sweat, Metcalf crushed the combine, Oliver, Greedy & White all did what they were expected as guys that have been considered top 10 types all year. That's without even getting to the O-line guys.

Are there more WR or more OL who can you pencil in to be an immediate quality starter?

 

[chugg21]

Are there more WR or more OL who can you pencil in to be an immediate quality starter?

From what I've read it appears that both are fairly deep with quantity but there isn't any no doubt guys in either group. Certainly appears that its way more likely to be able to find a quality starting interior lineman into round 3 then WR though. Best case scenario to me besides a trade down which probably isn't all that likely, would be BPA available period in Rd 1. Likely someone from that Gary/Oliver/Greedy/White grouping and then best OL/WR/TE in rd 2 as long as the value is there.

 

[Melancer46]

Are there more WR or more OL who can you pencil in to be an immediate quality starter?

Are you asking which position has more? I think O-Line is probably more likely to generate an immediate good player. I think there's a lot of WRs that will be getting playing time as at least the #3 or #4 WR though.

There's probably around 10-15 WRs in this year's class that have a chance to contribute quickly IMO; it's immensely deep and that's not even mentioning the raw guys that could turn into something in the long-term.

 

[longislandcuse]

It is if you are a couple pieces away, doesn't really work when you are starting from scratch and are bereft of talent all over the place. Best case scenario is that they are ready to make a push in maybe 2020 but more likely 2021. At that point Brown is 33 which is the age that WRs start to crap out.

I'm dying for any type of actual NFL quality starting WR, let alone maybe the best one but pairing our 22 year old QB with a 30 year old RB and 31 year old WR probably isn't the best way to point the franchise forward.

Robert Foster is legit. I'd go DL/OT at 9, and then try to grab a N'Keal Harry, Kelvin Harmon, Hakeem Butler type in the 2nd Round. That gives us two serious playmakers on the outside.

That's assuming we stand pat at our respective positions.

 

[chugg21]

Robert Foster is legit. I'd go DL/OT at 9, and then try to grab N'Keal Harry in the 2nd Round. That gives us two serious playmakers on the outside.

It could or Harry could turn into Laquon Treadwell. WRs are so tough to hit on. Suppose this is all guessing as who knows what happens in FA. Could change our needs some. Just wish there were a few decent outside WRs avail but there's basically none. Tyrell Williams is going to end up getting like 4 years, $50m with something stupid like $25m guaranteed just because of Supply < Demand.

 

[longislandcuse]

It could or Harry could turn into Laquon Treadwell. WRs are so tough to hit on. Suppose this is all guessing as who knows what happens in FA. Could change our needs some. Just wish there were a few decent outside WRs avail but there's basically none. Tyrell Williams is going to end up getting like 4 years, $50m with something stupid like $25m guaranteed just because of Supply < Demand.

Agreed. If DK Metcalf had any type of route running ability, I'd want him at 9, but since he doesn't... I'd rather wait to the 2nd/3rd where theres tons of WR value.

The TE out of Iowa, Hockenson, is intriguing in the 1st, especially if we trade down.

 

[chugg21]

Agreed. If DK Metcalf had any type of route running ability, I'd want him at 9, but since he doesn't... I'd rather wait to the 2nd/3rd where theres tons of WR value.

The TE out of Iowa, Hockenson, is intriguing in the 1st, especially if we trade down.

Agree, he could fill a need we've had for about 2 decades but I just wouldn't love it at 9 either. Think in the 1st round you pretty much just have to go best player available. If that means Greedy Williams or Devin White and we now take a position and move it from good to great than so be it. Hopefully BPA and need intersect. Makes things a lot easier.

 

[JeremyCuse]

Robert Foster is legit. I'd go DL/OT at 9, and then try to grab a N'Keal Harry, Kelvin Harmon, Hakeem Butler type in the 2nd Round. That gives us two serious playmakers on the outside.

That's assuming we stand pat at our respective positions.

Harmon would a pretty nice pickup if we could grab him in the 2nd or maybe even late 1st if we trade back a few times.

 

[chugg21]

Harmon would a pretty nice pickup if we could grab him in the 2nd or maybe even late 1st if we trade back a few times.

You really want to come out of this draft with Harmon as the top prize? Love the idea of adding an extra 2nd or 3rd in a move back but hopefully we won't be picking in the top 10 too often going forward so gotta come out of this with as close to a guaranteed high-end guy as possible for the next 5 years. Don't want to be moving all the way back into the 20s and getting a coin flip guy.

 

[JeremyCuse]

You really want to come out of this draft with Harmon as the top prize? Love the idea of adding an extra 2nd or 3rd in a move back but hopefully we won't be picking in the top 10 too often going forward so gotta come out of this with as close to a guaranteed high-end guy as possible for the next 5 years. Don't want to be moving all the way back into the 20s and getting a coin flip guy.

Well I am assuming were picking up multiple picks or pieces that include him. I certainly would't base my draft around him but getting him in the 2nd round would be a pretty good pick I think.

 

[Melancer46]

You really want to come out of this draft with Harmon as the top prize? Love the idea of adding an extra 2nd or 3rd in a move back but hopefully we won't be picking in the top 10 too often going forward so gotta come out of this with as close to a guaranteed high-end guy as possible for the next 5 years. Don't want to be moving all the way back into the 20s and getting a coin flip guy.

Personally, I'm almost always in favor of trading down. Just think the value is almost always worth it. Harmon wouldn't be the guy I hope for with my first pick of the draft though and I don't think Buffalo would have to settle for him if they did move down. Harmon might be an option with the 40th pick though and I'd be fine with that (though I suspect I'll have higher rated WRs still available there too).

 

[chugg21]

Personally, I'm almost always in favor of trading down. Just think the value is almost always worth it. Harmon wouldn't be the guy I hope for with my first pick of the draft though and I don't think Buffalo would have to settle for him if they did move down. Harmon might be an option with the 40th pick though and I'd be fine with that (though I suspect I'll have higher rated WRs still available there too).

Everyone is in favor of trading down and picking up additional assets I'm pretty sure, but once you drop out of the top 12/15 then I think the chances of hitting on an elite guy start to dwindle. With all of the analytics folks that are in front offices now valuing getting the most bites at the apple possible, it might cause things to go the other way and be more value in going up and securing the highest guys on your board.

Kind of like in the NBA where 2nd rd picks became such valuable trade currency but then on draft day they become almost worthless after about pick 40.

 

[chugg21]

Metcalf is the pick in the mock Daniel Jeremiah just put out. Can't say that I would be all that happy with him at #9. I just don't know how good of an actual WR he is. Could end up being incredible but he wasn't even the best WR at Ole Miss the last 2 years.

 

[MSOrange]

Metcalf is the pick in the mock Daniel Jeremiah just put out. Can't say that I would be all that happy with him at #9. I just don't know how good of an actual WR he is. Could end up being incredible but he wasn't even the best WR at Ole Miss the last 2 years.

Agree. I'm a bigger believer in production on the field than the underwear olympics.