CFP Rankings for Nov 2

[rrlbees]

I don't get why they went away from the BCS formula. Have a committee pick the four teams and seed them but use the BCS as a guide. Like they do with the RPI. The whole purpose of the BCS was to minimize human bias. What we have now if worse than just using the polls.

Top 10 BCS simulation
1. UGA
2. Cincy
3. Oklahoma
4. Bama
5. Sparty
6. Ohio State
7. Michigan
8. Notre Dame
9. Oregon
10. Wake

They can chose to have 5 jump 4 no problem. Maybe 5 and 4 jump 3. But wouldn't be able to leave Cincy out if they are #2.

Most favored by the #BCS: Iowa (+6 spots) Oklahoma (+5) Cincinnati (+4) Notre Dame (+2) Most favored by the @CFBPlayoff: Mississippi State (+15 spots) Minnesota (+10) NC State (+6) San Diego State, Fresno State, Oregon (+5) BYU (+4)

Those rankings right there are why the BCS isn’t used.

 

[SWC75]

For me the bottom line is that we have divisions so everyone can compete for a championship. If your team can beat everybody they play and they have no shot at the national championship, they are in the wrong division. I'd be in favor of making the Power 5 a division of their own and combining the Group of 5 with FCS and giving North Dakota State some competition. But that's not going to happen. So you have to have a system where the Group of 5 teams have a shot.

The logical way to do that is a 16 team playoff with auto-bids to the conference champions. That leaves plenty of spots for P5 teams(actually more than we have now), and it's still less than the number of teams in the FCS, DII and DIII playoffs. Play the early rounds in December and have the Final Four on New Year's Day. The teams that lose in the first two rounds could still finish the season with a win in another Bowl game.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

Those rankings right there are why the BCS isn’t used.

How can a committee which inherently has bias be better at ranking teams than coaches and computers?

They shouldn't pick playoff teams based on the BCS (like RPI), but it should be used to rank the teams. Oregon being 4th is a joke. They aren't top 12 in any of the computer rankings and they are 7th in the coaches poll. They were placed 4th for political reasons. That is acceptable?

If we use the BCS rank the Top 2 teams will likely make the playoff. The 3rd team can be jumped by 4th and 5th, but 6th is likely too far away. The 4th team can be jumped the 5th and 6th, but 7th is likely too far away. We have the committee to pick the 4 teams but the BCS is there to guide them. Right now there is no checks and balances.

BTW
2018, 2019, and 2020 the BCS had the same exact Top 4. 2014, 2016, and 2017 the same teams were in the Top 4 but 2 and 3 were flipped. 2015 had the same Top 4 but 3 and 4 were flipped. So we get the same 4 teams all 7 years, and maybe one matchup difference if the committee didn't make a change.

 

[Briancuse]

I have Cincy in the top 4 but I understand why the committee had them 6th. They barely beat navy and looked bad against Tulane. When your a group of 5 school your margin is ultra thin.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

For me the bottom line is that we have divisions so everyone can compete for a championship. If your team can beat everybody they play and they have no shot at the national championship, they are in the wrong division. I'd be in favor of making the Power 5 a division of their own and combining the Group of 5 with FCS and giving North Dakota State some competition. But that's not going to happen. So you have to have a system where the Group of 5 teams have a shot.

The logical way to do that is a 16 team playoff with auto-bids to the conference champions. That leaves plenty of spots for P5 teams(actually more than we have now), and it's still less than the number of teams in the FCS, DII and DIII playoffs. Play the early rounds in December and have the Final Four on New Year's Day. The teams that lose in the first two rounds could still finish the season with a win in another Bowl game.

That is not why the FSB division exists. A 16 team playoff with auto bids for the G5 conferences is such a bad idea. If you are going to force a playoff then the P5 need to be its own division. Or the NCAA has to enforce and expand the minimum attendance rule.

If you have a 25k four year avg attendance policy you get to cut out roughly 40 teams who don't belong in a playoff. So we would be at 6 total conferences. Give each champ and auto bid and then add in ONE at large bid and call it a day. Without those G5 schools conferences likely go to 10 conference games and those OOC games are P5 matchups since no one else is left to play. That makes every week interesting.

The fact that a school can go FCS to FBS, win CUSA, and get into your playoff system is unfair to everyone else.

 

[SWC75]

That is not why the FSB division exists. A 16 team playoff with auto bids for the G5 conferences is such a bad idea. If you are going to force a playoff then the P5 need to be its own division. Or the NCAA has to enforce and expand the minimum attendance rule.

If you have a 25k four year avg attendance policy you get to cut out roughly 40 teams who don't belong in a playoff. So we would be at 6 total conferences. Give each champ and auto bid and then add in ONE at large bid and call it a day. Without those G5 schools conferences likely go to 10 conference games and those OOC games are P5 matchups since no one else is left to play. That makes every week interesting.

The fact that a school can go FCS to FBS, win CUSA, and get into your playoff system is unfair to everyone else.

That's why any division exists. And if you have 24, 28 and 32 team playoffs in the other divisions, why not a 16 team playoff for the top division, which has the highest percentage of athletes who are there trying to get into the NFL?

 

[David321]

Does anyone else enjoy all of this controversy? To be honest, I actually do. One of the many unique things about CFB. The speculation, anticipation, endless debates, so many teams etc.

 

[MikeSU02]

Mike, last year Coastal Carolina went undefeated in the regular season against a very weak schedule. They ended up losing their bowl game, but hypothetically if they won that and were undefeated, are you saying they should have been co-champs with Bama? Just trying to understand your point.

No, what I'm saying is that if they won their conference title or were one of the top 6 ranked teams outside of conf champs, they should have been in a 16-team tournament.

If they were seeded 13 (out of the 16), they would need to play in the first round against the 16 seed. And so on and so forth. If they were seeded 12, they would get a single bye and then have to play in round 2 (which would be their first game).

To be champs, they would have to win a very hard tournament, but at least they would have a true shot.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

These are the G5 schools who have decent fan bases:

2 year avg (2018/2019) attendance over 25k
Memphis 30,178/38,816
East Carolina 32,908/33,134
Boise State 33,068/32,070
Navy 31,464/31,970
USF 38,517/31,823
Fresno State 31,503/31,552
Army 31,693/30,989
San Diego State 31,439/29,896
Temple 28,470/29,480
Air Force 27,701/27,084
Colorado State 29,504/23,338

They can try to get into a P5, go Indy and try to get an at large, or join together into the 6th FBS conference and get an auto bid.

You could probably be more aggressive and go up to a 30k avg to prevent stragglers pumping up fake attendance numbers. Then you can also cut out CSU and Temple from the list above.

The P5 schools in danger at 30k
Washington State 30,091/28,541
Wake 26,842/26,999
Vandy 28,045/26,288
Duke 26,648/25,811
Houston 29,838/25,518 although they are expected to go up moving from AAC to B12.

Funny that outside of Duke I bet the conference wouldn't mind dropping those teams. Having a 30k limit could help these schools sell tickets. If you are a fan then buy a season ticket and not go if you want your team to stay FBS.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

That's why any division exists. And if you have 24, 28 and 32 team playoffs in the other divisions, why not a 16 team playoff for the top division, which has the highest percentage of athletes who are there trying to get into the NFL?

In the other divisions there isn't systematic difference from one team to the next. So they are all on relatively equal ground. There is nothing equal between our program and Kent State. So why should they have greater access to the CFP when they have a worse team and program? We are on eof the worst ACC teams but we would be the best MAC team.

Shouldn't the playoff strive to get the best teams in and not offer hand outs?

 

[HRE Otto IV]

These are the G5 schools who have decent fan bases:

2 year avg (2018/2019) attendance over 25k
Memphis 30,178/38,816
East Carolina 32,908/33,134
Boise State 33,068/32,070
Navy 31,464/31,970
USF 38,517/31,823
Fresno State 31,503/31,552
Army 31,693/30,989
San Diego State 31,439/29,896
Temple 28,470/29,480
Air Force 27,701/27,084
Colorado State 29,504/23,338

They can try to get into a P5, go Indy and try to get an at large, or join together into the 6th FBS conference and get an auto bid.

You could probably be more aggressive and go up to a 30k avg to prevent stragglers pumping up fake attendance numbers. Then you can also cut out CSU and Temple from the list above.

The P5 schools in danger at 30k
Washington State 30,091/28,541
Wake 26,842/26,999
Vandy 28,045/26,288
Duke 26,648/25,811
Houston 29,838/25,518 although they are expected to go up moving from AAC to B12.

Funny that outside of Duke I bet the conference wouldn't mind dropping those teams. Having a 30k limit could help these schools sell tickets. If you are a fan then buy a season ticket and not go if you want your team to stay FBS.

You can get to 5 x 16 pretty easy using the 25k rule. Other schools would be left out since they have no conference.

P12
North- Oregon, Oregon State, Washington, Washington State
South- Arizona, Arizona State, UCLA, USC
East- Boise State, Colorado, Colorado State, Utah
West- Cal, Fresno State, San Diego State, Stanford

B1G
North- Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Wisconsin
South- Illinois, Indiana, Northwestern, Purdue
East- Maryland, Ohio State, Penn State, Rutgers
West- Iowa, Iowa State, Kansas, Nebraska

SEC
North- Kentucky, Missouri, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
South- Alabama, LSU, Miss State, Ole Miss
East- Auburn, Florida, Georgia, South Carolina
West- Arkansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Texas A&M

ACC
North- BC, Cuse, Notre Dame, Pitt
South- Clemson, FSU, Georgia Tech, Miami
East- Duke, NC State, UNC, UVA
West- Cincinnati, Louisville, Virginia Tech, Wake

B12
West- Air Force, BYU, Kansas State, Oklahoma State
South- Baylor, Houston, TCU, Texas Tech
East- ECU, Memphis, UCF, USF
North- Army, Navy, Temple, West Virginia


CFP has the 5 conference champs plus 2 at larges.

 

[SouthernCuse]

8 works for me. 5 power conference champions, group of 5 rep, 2 at large.
This summer the talk was all 12, makes no sense and I believe came from the SEC, who got greedy (what else is new) and wanted 3/12 shares every year.

Course maybe they knew UT and OU were coming, and B12 would be downgraded as a P5 rep. Still, 8 is enough.

 

[GoCuse14]

Yep...this is 2021. I personally cant look at past games and say one team would do something...when they would be playing a different team. I get where you are coming from. Its just my opinion. I have been wrong before, a lot.

 

[Jake]

i see both sides here. The issue I have with Cincy is that they’ve looked mediocre on consecutive weeks. Every team deserves a mulligan, but you better kick ass and take names the next week against marginal opponents.

I don’t know how you’d do it, but I’d have put Cincy 4th and then let the season play out,because I think they have as many issues behind them as in front of them on that list.

 

[sufandu]

How can a committee which inherently has bias be better at ranking teams than coaches and computers?

They shouldn't pick playoff teams based on the BCS (like RPI), but it should be used to rank the teams. Oregon being 4th is a joke. They aren't top 12 in any of the computer rankings and they are 7th in the coaches poll. They were placed 4th for political reasons. That is acceptable?

If we use the BCS rank the Top 2 teams will likely make the playoff. The 3rd team can be jumped by 4th and 5th, but 6th is likely too far away. The 4th team can be jumped the 5th and 6th, but 7th is likely too far away. We have the committee to pick the 4 teams but the BCS is there to guide them. Right now there is no checks and balances.

BTW
2018, 2019, and 2020 the BCS had the same exact Top 4. 2014, 2016, and 2017 the same teams were in the Top 4 but 2 and 3 were flipped. 2015 had the same Top 4 but 3 and 4 were flipped. So we get the same 4 teams all 7 years, and maybe one matchup difference if the committee didn't make a change.

The computers have bias based on what the programmer emphasizes in the algorithm. The programmers are going to have bias just like anyone else. The checks and balances are built in to who comprises the committee. Different knowledgeable people with different backgrounds and biases BBQ balance out.

 

[FloridaFan]

I want UC to make the playoff, so this isn't me being a hater. And I understand that most of these games are scheduled years in advance.

I think the Bearcats cost themselves dearly by scheduling Murray State.
The Miami (OH) game is their huge rivalry game (Victory Bell), so I get that.

But along with the @ND and @Indiana games, their final OOC game ideally would've be against a third P5 (it also does not help them that IU woke up this year and remembered they are ... Indiana Football).

Lastly, UC has buzzard's luck not playing Houston this year in the regular season, but they need the Cougars to get to the American Champ Game at 10-1 and then beat UH convincingly, but not a blowout. It's all delicate and likely won't work out for the Bearcats.

So they shouldn’t play an FCS school like everyone else does?

 

[sufandu]

That is not why the FSB division exists. A 16 team playoff with auto bids for the G5 conferences is such a bad idea. If you are going to force a playoff then the P5 need to be its own division. Or the NCAA has to enforce and expand the minimum attendance rule.

If you have a 25k four year avg attendance policy you get to cut out roughly 40 teams who don't belong in a playoff. So we would be at 6 total conferences. Give each champ and auto bid and then add in ONE at large bid and call it a day. Without those G5 schools conferences likely go to 10 conference games and those OOC games are P5 matchups since no one else is left to play. That makes every week interesting.

The fact that a school can go FCS to FBS, win CUSA, and get into your playoff system is unfair to everyone else.

Including all conference champions would be fine. There are 11 conferences, so you still get 5 at larges. The scrub conferences get to say they got stomped by an elite in the first round. The high seeds are rewarded for a successful season by having an easy first round game. It'd be just like the first round of the basketball tournament which is the funnest 4 days in sports (and sports are supposed to be about fun). A fluke loss by a contender in their conference championship game is covered by the 5 at larges. So, you include all the contenders, schools we never see get 15 seconds of glory as we watch then get stomped, and we still get to debate which at large contenders got screwed by the selection committee.

 

[sufandu]

So they shouldn’t play an FCS school like everyone else does?

Not if they already play a soft schedule.

 

[tep624]

This is the first week of rankings, I wouldn’t take them to seriously.

The only issue will come up if Bama wins out and beats Georgia in the SEC championship.

Oregon HAS to win the PAC 12 to stay in the top 4. Michigan State, Ohio State and Michigan will all sort themselves out as they play each other or will have to with the Big 10 championship.

With that in mind, Cincy can still get into the top 4.

However, need to be worried about Oklahoma coming from behind in the Big 12 if they win out

Oklahoma won't win out. They've been playing on the razor's edge most weeks and will lose to either Baylor or Ok St.

 

[Eric15]

No, what I'm saying is that if they won their conference title or were one of the top 6 ranked teams outside of conf champs, they should have been in a 16-team tournament.

If they were seeded 13 (out of the 16), they would need to play in the first round against the 16 seed. And so on and so forth. If they were seeded 12, they would get a single bye and then have to play in round 2 (which would be their first game).

To be champs, they would have to win a very hard tournament, but at least they would have a true shot.

Thanks for clarifying.

 

[Orangello]

i see both sides here. The issue I have with Cincy is that they’ve looked mediocre on consecutive weeks. Every team deserves a mulligan, but you better kick ass and take names the next week against marginal opponents.

I don’t know how you’d do it, but I’d have put Cincy 4th and then let the season play out,because I think they have as many issues behind them as in front of them on that list.

Hosting SMU and at ECU to end the season is not how I'd want to set it up. A lot of FB to play but I can see them getting snubbed but being cast against the weakest P5 champ on New Year's Eve or Day. My money says Wake in Jax.

 

[tep624]

I have Cincy in the top 4 but I understand why the committee had them 6th. They barely beat navy and looked bad against Tulane. When your a group of 5 school your margin is ultra thin.

It's true, if you don't have the strength of schedule you have to show dominance on a weekly basis. It's perception as much as anything.

 

[SWC75]

In the other divisions there isn't systematic difference from one team to the next. So they are all on relatively equal ground. There is nothing equal between our program and Kent State. So why should they have greater access to the CFP when they have a worse team and program? We are on eof the worst ACC teams but we would be the best MAC team.

Shouldn't the playoff strive to get the best teams in and not offer hand outs?

I already said I'd go along with the P5 become a division in their own right but that that isn't going to happen so the priority becomes to give everybody in a division a reasonable chance to win the championship of that division. If a team beats everyone who lines up in front of them and hits a glass ceiling, something is wrong.

 

[SWC75]

Yep...this is 2021. I personally cant look at past games and say one team would do something...when they would be playing a different team. I get where you are coming from. Its just my opinion. I have been wrong before, a lot.

The issue was whether Cincinnati would get 'boat raced' by the SEC champion. I think last year's Peach Bowl suggests we can't assume that.

 

[upperdeck]

The issue was whether Cincinnati would get 'boat raced' by the SEC champion. I think last year's Peach Bowl suggests we can't assume that.

every week you see teams much better lose to bad teams.. Cincy could play with most teams on a 1 game basis especially given weeks to prep.. But its the grind of weeks of games that shows what a team really is.. They got up for ND and controlled that game but we have seen ND is just an avg team this year. I mean whats the next hardest game ? A bad Indiana team? Whats the next best Navy? Navy would be like better than Ohio/Albany on our schedule not our 2nd or 3rd best. if Cincy played in a league and played like they have they would have 2-3 losses already.