I played around with Red’s statistics vs Boeheim’s last 4 years in chat GPT and ran some statistical analysis. (W, L, margin of victory of wins and losses). Just straight W’s and L’s. No SOS or opponent strength considered. Real rudimentary stuff. Overall, even with the 20 win season, the difference between Red and late-stage JB is not statistically significant. At this point in time, Red is slightly worse than late-state JB. Notably, the data showed JB’s teams competed harder (bigger margin of victory, lesser margin of defeat.) Red’s sole improvement is that the margin of loss this year is a slight improvement over last year’s margin of loss, but not at late-stage JB level. Reds margin of loss, however, is right on the border of being statistically significant compared to late stage JB.
But the data supports the following conclusions based on the last 5.5 years: 1) we are so far from being a final four contender based on wins, losses, and margins; 2) we are in the process of a slow rebuild that will take several years to make us a final four competitor; and 3) red’s performance so far does not show the marks of a program on an upward trajectory. We continue to be stuck on a stagnated plateau.
The real question, which hasn’t been addressed by ADJW, is the expectation a quick turn around with a hockey stick like trajectory; or are we expecting Red to rebuild this program brick by brick, year by year with slight improvements and each year building on the previous one. The expectations will definitely frame how one views the job that Red is doing. I imagine folks who want an immediate turnaround (myself included) are in the first camp and are feeling quite frustrated with the continued status quo, while the slow builders are probably in the give red more time camp.
