Friday Rooting Guide

[Tom W.]

I put together another rooting guide for today. Hopefully these games go a lot like the night games yesterday, and not so much the afternoon games. I'll try to keep it updated again. Also, if you get a chance, check out TCW Bracketology, and let me know what you think of the new blog. Thanks! May the Bubble Gods be ever in our favor!

Rhode Island over VCU 12pm (possible bid stealer)
Auburn over Alabama 1pm
St Bonaventure over Richmond 6pm
Xavier over Providence 6pm
Buffalo over Kent State 6:30pm
Kansas over Kansas State 7pm
UNC over Duke 9pm (RPI boost)
Arizona over UCLA 9pm
Nevada over SDSU 9pm (Bid stealer)
Toldeo over Eastern Michigan 9pm (Push Toledo win to possibly quad-2)
Texas Southern over Prairie A&M 9:30pm (RPI boost)
Oregon over USC 11:30pm

Let me know if I missed anything.

 

[STEVEHOLT]

I don't think the SWAC tourney matters. It's a 1 bid league.

 

[Ryand877]

Thanks again for doing this Tom!

 

[44gk44]

Cincy over SMU (bid stealer)
Kentucky over Georgia (bid stealer)
Witchita over Temple (bid stealer)
Tennessee over Miss St (bid stealer)
Houston over UCF (bid stealer)
Toledo over E.Mich (Toledo is 83 in RPI +8 from Quad 2 win)

 

[NineOneSeven]

USC is pretty much a lock. Don't we want Oregon to be eliminated?

 

[upperdeck]

if anything matters its xavier/nevada/arizona/auburn

pac 12 who knows I dont trust ariz win out but oregon over USC is a hope.. unless USC is in already and oregon wins out and adds another pac12 team

 

[Tom W.]

I don't think the SWAC tourney matters. It's a 1 bid league.

Yea, that was just a computer improving game. I noted it in an edit.

 

[Tom W.]

USC is pretty much a lock. Don't we want Oregon to be eliminated?

I don't think USC is a lock. I think they are a ten seed at best. While I think they will get in, another loss wouldn't hurt. Their resume is highly unimpressive. And I don't think Oregon is getting in unless they win the PAC-12 tournament. That was my thinking on this. I also think Arizona will make the final and handle Oregon. Although, I do see the risk in Oregon winning. This is kind of like the St. Mary's situation, we wanted them to lose early, but just make sure Gonzaga won the tournament.

Here is the USC resume: Southern California Trojans RPI Breakdown - NCAA Basketball RPI Breakdown - CBSSports.com

 

[Tom W.]

Cincy over SMU (bid stealer)
Kentucky over Georgia (bid stealer)
Witchita over Temple (bid stealer)
Tennessee over Miss St (bid stealer)
Houston over UCF (bid stealer)
Toledo over E.Mich (Toledo is 83 in RPI +8 from Quad 2 win)

I wasn't going to put in every bid stealer who needs to win a conference tournament, until it really became a worry (finals or all at-large seeds eliminated), just to keep the list a little more focused. But yes, everyone should also keep an eye on the other tournaments.

 

[690West]

Cincy over SMU (bid stealer)
Kentucky over Georgia (bid stealer)
Witchita over Temple (bid stealer)
Tennessee over Miss St (bid stealer)
Houston over UCF (bid stealer)
Toledo over E.Mich (Toledo is 83 in RPI +8 from Quad 2 win)

The thought of cheering for Kentucky makes me throw up in my mouth a little. But I understand.

 

[orangenirvana]

Who to root for today (important ones (imo) in bold)...

12:00 NBCSN: Rhode Island over VCU
1:00 ESPN: Auburn over Alabama
1:30 CBSSN: Marshall over Southern Miss - This makes MTSU's loss keep looking bad
4:00 CBSSN: Western Kentucky over Old Dominion - This would knock Old Dominion out of the Top 75 RPI and MTSU's Quad 1 win total goes from 3 to 2
6:00 NBCSN: Richmond over Saint Bonaventure - If Rhode Island beats VCU. I still don't consider Bonnies a lock
6:30 FS1: Xavier over Providence
6:30 CBSSN: Buffalo over Kent State
7:00 ESPN2: Kansas over Kansas State
7:00 ESPN: Clemson over Virginia
7:00 SECN: Tennessee over Mississippi State
9:00 CBSN: Nevada over San Diego State
9:00 PAC12N: Arizona over UCLA
11:30 PAC12N: Oregon over USC

 

[MSOrange]

Antoine Walker was on the SEC pregame show. That dude looks like an offensive lineman.

 

[NFGenROC]

Bonaventure is a lock already. We want them to win the A-10 so the home loss looks a bit more palatable.

 

[Tom W.]

Analysis | March Madness winners and losers: Updated NCAA tournament bracket projection

Patrick Stevens, new Bracket.

 

[orangenirvana]

Bonaventure is a lock already. We want them to win the A-10 so the home loss looks a bit more palatable.

If Bonnies lose today, they should be very nervous heading into Sunday. 41.7% of their wins came against Quad 4 teams, and they lost to one.

 

[Jasoncuse]

I'd like Cincy to not lose this game to SMU.

 

[Tom W.]

Back and forth game between Rhode Island and VCU. Up 47-43 with 14 mins to go. I definitely think Rhode Island will be a lock, need them to pull this out. With the Bonnies, I think they are pretty safe, but not totally in.

 

[orangenirvana]

There are approximately 12 at-large spots available for these 26 teams. I've put them in order of average metric ranking. Also added overall record and record vs. Quad 1 teams (wins vs. Quad 2, wins vs. Quad 3, wins vs. Quad 4)

Teams in green are still active in their conference tournaments.

1. Kansas State (22-10) - 37.33...4-8 (6,6,6)
2. Texas (19-14) - 38.33...6-11 (2,6,5)
3. Virginia Tech (21-11) - 38.67...5-7 (3,5,8)
4. Louisville (20-13) - 39.00...3-11 (2,8,7)
5. Saint Mary's (28-5) - 40.33...2-1 (2,10,14)
6. Oklahoma (18-13) - 40.67...6-9 (3,3,6)
7. Missouri (19-12) - 42.00...5-7 (6,5,3)
8. Florida State (20-11) - 42.33...6-7 (1,4,9)
9. USC (22-10) - 42.83...4-5 (5,7,6*)
10. Saint Bonaventure (24-6) - 43.00...3-2 (5,6,10*)
11. UCLA (21-10) - 43.17...3-6 (5,7,6)
12. Baylor (17-14) - 43.50...4-12 (3,3,7)
13. Notre Dame (20-14) - 45.50...2-9 (5,6,6)
14. NC State (21-11) - 45.83...5-7 (3,5,8)
15. Middle Tennessee (24-7) - 47.67...3-3 (2,7,11)
16. Alabama (18-14) - 47.83...6-7 (4,6,2)
17. Marquette (19-13) - 48.33...4-8 (4,5,6)
18. Syracuse (20-13) - 49.00...3-8 (2,10,5)
19. Providence (20-12) - 50.50...4-8 (5,7,4**)
20. Penn State (21-13) - 51.67...3-7 (1,7,10*)
21. Arizona State (20-11) - 53.67...3-4 (4,8,5)
22. Oklahoma State (19-14) - 56.50...5-12 (4,2,8)
23. Boise State (22-8) - 58.33...2-2 (4,6,10)
24. Mississippi State (21-10) - 62.67...2-7 (5,6,8)
25. Oregon (22-11) - 66.0...3-4 (5,6,8)
26. LSU (17-14) - 67.50...6-6 (3,2,6)

* Quad 4 loss
** Two Quad 4 losses

 

[orangenirvana]

Sorry Tom didn't see your thread.

Mods - can you merge the two together?

 

[orange79]

Sorry Tom didn't see your thread.

Mods - can you merge the two together?

Done

 

[Tom W.]

There are approximately 12 at-large spots available for these 26 teams. I've put them in order of average metric ranking. Also added overall record and record vs. Quad 1 teams (wins vs. Quad 2, wins vs. Quad 3, wins vs. Quad 4)

Teams in green are still active in their conference tournaments.

1. Kansas State (22-10) - 37.33...4-8 (6,6,6)
2. Texas (19-14) - 38.33...6-11 (2,6,5)
3. Virginia Tech (21-11) - 38.67...5-7 (3,5,8)
4. Louisville (20-13) - 39.00...3-11 (2,8,7)
5. Saint Mary's (28-5) - 40.33...2-1 (2,10,14)
6. Oklahoma (18-13) - 40.67...6-9 (3,3,6)
7. Missouri (19-12) - 42.00...5-7 (6,5,3)
8. Florida State (20-11) - 42.33...6-7 (1,4,9)
9. USC (22-10) - 42.83...4-5 (5,7,6*)
10. Saint Bonaventure (24-6) - 43.00...3-2 (5,6,10*)
11. UCLA (21-10) - 43.17...3-6 (5,7,6)
12. Baylor (17-14) - 43.50...4-12 (3,3,7)
13. Notre Dame (20-14) - 45.50...2-9 (5,6,6)
14. NC State (21-11) - 45.83...5-7 (3,5,8)
15. Middle Tennessee (24-7) - 47.67...3-3 (2,7,11)
16. Alabama (18-14) - 47.83...6-7 (4,6,2)
17. Marquette (19-13) - 48.33...4-8 (4,5,6)
18. Syracuse (20-13) - 49.00...3-8 (2,10,5)
19. Providence (20-12) - 50.50...4-8 (5,7,4**)
20. Penn State (21-13) - 51.67...3-7 (1,7,10*)
21. Arizona State (20-11) - 53.67...3-4 (4,8,5)
22. Oklahoma State (19-14) - 56.50...5-12 (4,2,8)
23. Boise State (22-8) - 58.33...2-2 (4,6,10)
24. Mississippi State (21-10) - 62.67...2-7 (5,6,8)
25. Oregon (22-11) - 66.0...3-4 (5,6,8)
26. LSU (17-14) - 67.50...6-6 (3,2,6)

* Quad 4 loss
** Two Quad 4 losses

Nice stat work. I am in process of scrubbing my whole seed list and re-looking at things, including bubble. I'll let everyone know what I find.

 

[PauliePeppas]

Auburn pissing away a double digit lead in epic quickness

 

[MickGoCuse5]

Bama is just messing with our souls now...starting the 2nd half on an 14-1 run. Sexton is taking over St. Louis...

 

[PauliePeppas]

First time watching Auburn all year, hopefully my last

 

[MGP]

1 pt. in the 2nd half thus far...