Just looking at Houston's roster and year statistics. I'm coming away with a bit of a head scratcher. Perhaps those who watched them play can shed some light.
They play with a small team, two forwards and three guards is their most common lineup. But they have only five guys who play 20mpg and four are guards. Mostly they're big guards, three of them are listed at 6'5"and only Sasser (31.3mpg) is small. They don't play a center and their two forwards with the most minutes are both beefy 6'8" types. Yet they managed to dominate a big Rutgers team on the boards. As a team, Houston ranks 9th in rebounding percentage nationally. Their guards get a lot of rebounds to make up for forwards lack of height. Short teams that rebound well can be... frustrating for Syracuse. Gorham (8.6rpg in 27 mpg) in particular gets almost half his rebounds on the offensive end.
Houston's leading scorer and second best rebounder is Quincy Grimes, averaging 18 and 6 in ~33 mpg. Grimes is the straw that stirs the drink. He and Sasser are their volume shooters, both taking over 200 threes this year, averaging 37.4%... the rest of the team combined only took 279 all year, at a 34% rate. Teams that rely too heavily on one or two players to score can be contained by the zone.
They shoot 44% overall and attempt about 18ft/game, but are a stellar 5th overall in points per possession. Where is their efficiency coming from?
They earn a lot of their glowing record from defense. They rank 3rd nationally, allowing a terrific .86 points per possession... Syracuse is 143 and .984 respectively. They are very tough defensively and throw a lot of guys at you, defensively giving different looks and keeping good intensity. But they aren't elite at forcing turnovers and are bad at blocking shots. As a result of the lack of rim protection, Houston ranks 177 at opponent's 2pt shooting%, allowing a whopping 62.7% in opponents two point shots. Houston is elite at stopping 3 pointers, allowing less than 30% outside. They foul way too much, almost 25% of defensive possessions... Again, I suspect rim protection could be a problem, causing lots of fouls. Are they only deep because everybody is in foul trouble most games?
Where does their defensive efficiency come from? A foul ridden team that doesn't get turnovers and can't stop the two point shot shouldn't be elite defensively!
A real head scratcher.
I think this could be a great game for Guerrier. He has some trouble against bigger teams, but without a shot blocker, it could be his turn to carry the scoring and get to the line a lot. I expect a big game from Richmond as well.
On the other hand, we need to make sure we aren't taking too many bad threes, as their defensive strength goes up against our offensive strength. Buddy may have a hard time with a bunch of tall guards in his face all game, who are also big enough to stop the Buddy back down.
The x factor is going to be Griffin. Can he get to the basket enough and avoid the lousy three? Can he help on the boards more than the last few games?
Overall Houston is a deep, experienced, balanced team that doesn't seem to excel in any areas, but is solid top to bottom. As effective as they have been, it isn't surprising to see them a few point favorite.
EDIT stats from ESPN and
