If Jerami Grant slips into the second round tonight...

[CorduroyG]

Someone else said it best. You don't leave early to be a 2nd round pick. End of story. He got some bad advice.

 

[rrlbees]

He will never have the NBA skills of a SF or PF. He showed nothing other than the occasional spin-move or rebound-dunk. He was a good college player that got by with his athleticism and had some nice highlight reel dunks. It's the freaking NBA, everyone is athletic and can jump. Another year at SU isn't going to transform his shot (horrible team shooting the past two years), make him a competent post scorer (do I even have to get into the big man coach stuff?), or make him able to withstand the abuse from NBA PFs. Second-round draftees that end up turning into players typically have an obvious skill and have typically accomplished something. Paul Millsap, Junior in NCAA: lead the NCAA in rebounding 3 consecutive years Rashard Lewis, high school: 6-10 shooter, Mickey D Stephen Jackson, high school - leading scorer in Mickey D game that included Kobe Bryant Monta Ellis, high school: Parade Magazine high school player of the year Marc Gasol, pro: ACB Most valuable player with FC Barcelona Carlos Boozer, Junior in NCAA: 2-time Parade high school All-American, standout college player at Duke winning 2001 championship Gilbert Arenas, Sophomore in NCAA: led Arizona to title game, 25th all-time scorer at Arizona (in just 2 years) Manu Ginobli, pro: 2-time Italian-League MVP, Euroleague Finals MVP I don't think Grant compares favorably to these 2nd-rounders...

He may never be one of those guys. But those are some if the most successful 2nd round picks. There are others. If the NBA see his potential right now as warranting a mid 2nd round, he wasn't jumping into lottery status next year just because he went back to SU. Could have been 1st round, but if he shows well now, that wouldn't make a huge difference. If he's good enough he'll stick and have a shot at a 2nd contract. It will depend on his offensive improvement whether that happened here, on the sixers or in the D league.

 

[rrlbees]

Someone else said it best. You don't leave early to be a 2nd round pick. End of story. He got some bad advice.

No doubt. But bring a 2nd rounder isn't a death knell either. He can still have a career.

 

[pearl31]

No doubt. But bring a 2nd rounder isn't a death knell either. He can still have a career.

But the question was whether it was a bad decision. That he went in the 2nd round shows it was a bad decision.

 

[SUFan44]

No doubt. But bring a 2nd rounder isn't a death knell either. He can still have a career.

You say I have bad reading comprehension. Go back and read the original post. It didn't ask if being a 2nd round pick was a killer to his career. It didn't ask if he could still make the NBA or make money if he is drafted in the 2nd round. It asked if it was a mistake to leave early to be a 2nd round draft pick.

Nobody leaves early to become a 2nd round draft pick. And he is a 1st rounder next year in a much weaker draft. Therefore, it was a mistake.

(I'd also like to add that not once has anyone mentioned anything about what it would mean for him to Syracuse basketball if he returned - which you threw into one of your posts as if someone had said it.)

 

[Melancer46]

One of the things that annoys me most is when people believe that the end result is what determines if something was a good decision or not. You can only make the decision based on what you know at that time. When Jerami declared, he was a 1st round pick, with the possibility to be a late lottery pick if he proved scouts he could shoot in workouts. He reportedly sucked in workouts, and his stock fell, causing him to slip to the 2nd round. At the time when he made the decision, I highly doubt he and his family were expecting that he would suck in workouts.

And coming back does not guarantee he would go higher. I'm fairly certain Jerami would have been picked right around where he got picked, if not later, had he come back for a junior season. If he only showed modest improvements as a junior, his stock would have plummeted even more, and then he'd end up being like James McAdoo or CJ, and just go into a tailspin that you can't correct.

Both Grant and Ennis made the right choices for themselves. They both would have likely been 2nd round picks if they returned, and would have kicked themselves if they came back for another year just to be a 2nd round pick.

 

[SUFan44]

One of the things that annoys me most is when people believe that the end result is what determines if something was a good decision or not. You can only make the decision based on what you know at that time. When Jerami declared, he was a 1st round pick, with the possibility to be a late lottery pick if he proved scouts he could shoot in workouts. He reportedly sucked in workouts, and his stock fell, causing him to slip to the 2nd round. At the time when he made the decision, I highly doubt he and his family were expecting that he would suck in workouts.

And coming back does not guarantee he would go higher. I'm fairly certain Jerami would have been picked right around where he got picked, if not later, had he come back for a junior season. If he only showed modest improvements as a junior, his stock would have plummeted even more, and then he'd end up being like James McAdoo or CJ, and just go into a tailspin that you can't correct.

Both Grant and Ennis made the right choices for themselves. They both would have likely been 2nd round picks if they returned, and would have kicked themselves if they came back for another year just to be a 2nd round pick.

Both of these statements are not true. Next year's draft is much weaker - if they have the same years as they did this past year they would have been chosen higher based on the fact that there aren't as many high-end players.

And based on what was he a 1st round draft pick when he declared? Mock drafts? Because the media knows oh-so-much about what they're talking about.

Please. Boeheim knows a lot more than we do and he was telling both to stay - especially Grant. Neither listened. Hope it works out for both, but neither - given all the facts they were given about the draft and about their prospects - chose the decision that would have resulted in a higher draft selection.

 

[djcon57]

Hope it works out for both, but neither - given all the facts they were given about the draft and about their prospects - chose the decision that would have resulted in a higher draft selection.

This is your opinion. Not fact.

IMO, this is as high as Ennis would have gone.

 

[SUFan44]

This is your opinion. Not fact.

IMO, this is as high as Ennis would have gone.

Opinion, yes, but so is the opinion that both would have been second round draft picks next year in a weaker draft, which goes against logic.

Ennis was not going to drop to the 2nd round if he stayed unless he shot 20% and Syracuse made the NIT (conjecture, but no way). Agree to disagree about that. And Grant had a much better shot at being a 1st rounder next year than this year.

 

[Bayside44]

Opinion, yes, but so is the opinion that both would have been second round draft picks next year in a weaker draft, which goes against logic.

Ennis was not going to drop to the 2nd round if he stayed unless he shot 20% and Syracuse made the NIT (conjecture, but no way). Agree to disagree about that. And Grant had a much better shot at being a 1st rounder next year than this year.

Agreed, Ennis would have gotten bigger and stronger with the same high court IQ.

Grant maybe could've developed another move or a steadier mid-range shot to go with his great measurables . This whole he was first rounder 2 months ago thing - there was no draft 2 months ago. Anyone who watched him and gets the game can see he is no where near ready.

 

[Melancer46]

Both of these statements are not true. Next year's draft is much weaker - if they have the same years as they did this past year they would have been chosen higher based on the fact that there aren't as many high-end players.

And based on what was he a 1st round draft pick when he declared? Mock drafts? Because the media knows oh-so-much about what they're talking about.

Please. Boeheim knows a lot more than we do and he was telling both to stay - especially Grant. Neither listened. Hope it works out for both, but neither - given all the facts they were given about the draft and about their prospects - chose the decision that would have resulted in a higher draft selection.

Regarding the first point, if they had the same season again, they would be drafted much lower than they were this year. If you don't show a significant amount of improvement, your stock will go down.

And yeah, pretty much everybody agreed that Grant was a first round pick before the actual draft process began, and everybody agreed that his stock fell because he had poor workouts.

And lastly, I'm not sure how you can even give an opinion on our player's draft stocks if you don't believe that draft projections are accurate at all. By that logic, nobody knows how returning to school would impact our guy's stock at all.

 

[Bayside44]

Regarding the first point, if they had the same season again, they would be drafted much lower than they were this year. If you don't show a significant amount of improvement, your stock will go down.

And yeah, pretty much everybody agreed that Grant was a first round pick before the actual draft process began, and everybody agreed that his stock fell because he had poor workouts.

And lastly, I'm not sure how you can even give an opinion on our player's draft stocks if you don't believe that draft projections are accurate at all. By that logic, nobody knows how returning to school would impact our guy's stock at all.

A lot of guys here that watch a lot of hoop were not surprised about Grant being in the second round. His workouts weren't good because he isn't ready - which you can tell by watching the games.

 

[Melancer46]

A lot of guys here that watch a lot of hoop were not surprised about Grant being in the second round. His workouts weren't good because he isn't ready - which you can tell by watching the games.

Right. I agree he should have been a second round pick. But there's nothing to suggest returning to school would improve his stock. For every guy that improves their stock, there's a James McAdoo or CJ Fair that only falls even further. If Jerami didn't come back and show that he had made huge improvements, teams would stop looking at him as a sophomore with potential and start looking at him as a junior that seemingly has plateaued.

 

[two3zone]

A lot of guys here that watch a lot of hoop were not surprised about Grant being in the second round. His workouts weren't good because he isn't ready - which you can tell by watching the games.

The draft had about 10 guys in the first around who aren't ready, I think that is a little bit of a flawed point. He slipped because I don't believe teams want a guy whos not a 3, not a 4 who simply can't shoot. I've noticed that they're drafting guys with bad shooting numbers but with nice looking shots, Grant's shot isn't just not good, it's ugly and makes you want to turn the other way.

 

[Bayside44]

Right. I agree he should have been a second round pick. But there's nothing to suggest returning to school would improve his stock. For every guy that improves their stock, there's a James McAdoo or CJ Fair that only falls even further. If Jerami didn't come back and show that he had made huge improvements, teams would stop looking at him as a sophomore with potential and start looking at him as a junior that seemingly has plateaued.

This goes back in time but it helped Wallace and more recently Hak. If his game didn't get better he was never an NBA guy anyway and he'd get weeded out.

 

[djcon57]

Agreed, Ennis would have gotten bigger and stronger with the same high court IQ.

Grant maybe could've developed another move or a steadier mid-range shot to go with his great measurables . This whole he was first rounder 2 months ago thing - there was no draft 2 months ago. Anyone who watched him and gets the game can see he is no where near ready.

You also felt MCW should have stayed, no?

 

[two3zone]

Right. I agree he should have been a second round pick. But there's nothing to suggest returning to school would improve his stock. For every guy that improves their stock, there's a James McAdoo or CJ Fair that only falls even further. If Jerami didn't come back and show that he had made huge improvements, teams would stop looking at him as a sophomore with potential and start looking at him as a junior that seemingly has plateaued.

Who this year stayed that was on the fence leaving last year that improved their stock? Not Smart, not McGary, don't think McDermott was really an early entry candidate. Like I said in an earlier post, out of the last 34 lottery picks (past 3 years) a huge majority of them were either Fr. So., or overseas guys, only a handful of Jr's or Sr's.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

One of the things that annoys me most is when people believe that the end result is what determines if something was a good decision or not. You can only make the decision based on what you know at that time. When Jerami declared, he was a 1st round pick, with the possibility to be a late lottery pick if he proved scouts he could shoot in workouts. He reportedly sucked in workouts, and his stock fell, causing him to slip to the 2nd round. At the time when he made the decision, I highly doubt he and his family were expecting that he would suck in workouts.

Ding ding ding!

I've tried making this same argument. Some people* just don't think in these terms.

*meatheads that love punting

 

[djcon57]

Who this year stayed that was on the fence leaving last year that improved their stock? Not Smart, not McGary, don't think McDermott was really an early entry candidate. Like I said in an earlier post, out of the last 34 lottery picks (past 3 years) a huge majority of them were either Fr. So., or overseas guys, only a handful of Jr's or Sr's.

McGary specifically dropped a ton.

 

[HOFCeluck]

Results based thinking. Hate it.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

Results based thinking.

It works if you can get weird with Bayesian stuff, but really, nobody wants that.

 

[SUFan44]

Regarding the first point, if they had the same season again, they would be drafted much lower than they were this year. If you don't show a significant amount of improvement, your stock will go down.

And yeah, pretty much everybody agreed that Grant was a first round pick before the actual draft process began, and everybody agreed that his stock fell because he had poor workouts.

And lastly, I'm not sure how you can even give an opinion on our player's draft stocks if you don't believe that draft projections are accurate at all. By that logic, nobody knows how returning to school would impact our guy's stock at all.

Boeheim thought both should come back - especially Grant. Jake, the resident basketball guru on the board, has stated it was a "horrific" decision. Yet some here believe he would have been drafted lower next year. I'm at a loss for words and am going to stop arguing with people who simply do not understand the process.

 

[RF2044]

Who this year stayed that was on the fence leaving last year that improved their stock? Not Smart, not McGary, don't think McDermott was really an early entry candidate. Like I said in an earlier post, out of the last 34 lottery picks (past 3 years) a huge majority of them were either Fr. So., or overseas guys, only a handful of Jr's or Sr's.

This year's draft was universally deeper and considered to be of much higher top-end quality than last year's draft. That undoubtedly played a factor.

 

[Melancer46]

Boeheim thought both should come back - especially Grant. Jake, the resident basketball guru on the board, has stated it was a "horrific" decision. Yet some here believe he would have been drafted lower next year. I'm at a loss for words and am going to stop arguing with people who simply do not understand the process.

Lol, I mean, if you simply believe that anyone that disagrees with you doesn't understand the process, I can't help you. I'm fairly certain that two people can both know what they're talking about and still have a difference of opinion. I understand the process very well. The NBA is pretty much what I eat, sleep, and breathe, and as a fan of a team whose only hope each year is in the draft, I definitely know how the draft process works. It's okay if we disagree on a player. The same thing happens with GMs every year too.

 

[SUFan44]

Who this year stayed that was on the fence leaving last year that improved their stock? Not Smart, not McGary, don't think McDermott was really an early entry candidate. Like I said in an earlier post, out of the last 34 lottery picks (past 3 years) a huge majority of them were either Fr. So., or overseas guys, only a handful of Jr's or Sr's.

Smart didn't prove he could shoot from the outside consistently - the only part of his game that anyone needed to see improvement of. Therefore he was drafted about where he should have been - which was 6th overall. Pretty damn good no matter how you slice it.

McGary got hurt and couldn't improve - and couldn't return because of the drug suspension.

CJ Fair was never going to be a first round draft pick. He has a sub-par handle for a 3-man, he is inconsistent as a shooter and defensively he doesn't have much aptitude. Not a shocker he was not drafted at all this year.

Should he have come out last year? Probably - if he wanted to be drafted. But he likely would have been a mid second rounder last year anyway and wouldn't have had any guaranteed money, so essentially he's in the same boat as he would have been last year except he has a college degree and probably had a blast as a senior.

John Wallace improved his draft stock with a great senior year. Adriean Payne from Michigan State improved every single one of his seasons and developed into a mid 1st round pick. Shabazz Napier was an afterthought last year and worked himself into the first round.

Grant definitely has the tools - he never had a chance to develop them on the court because we had better options. Next year would have been his chance to showcase them and work out the kinks - not saying he can't do it in the D-League or in training camp, but it's going to be a lot harder than it would have been as a 1st round pick.