IF the ACC breaks up, what are the likely outcomes for Syracuse?

[All4SU]

That's not what I said, is the ACC stable? Answer me this? which one do you think is more stable right now at this point in time? I think it's the big 12 right now, That is what I'm saying.

I’m thinking the B12 is stable because no one wants any of the teams they currently have. In the immortal words of Jimmy Soul…

If you want to be happy

 

[kcsu]

What is going on now is just a short-term hold until the next round which will be the final round for a long time. By then Congress will have stepped in, ESPN will either be sold or in a partnership with a streaming player. The ACC will finally become the aggressor and add a few strategic partners.

 

[oldpinepoint]

I’m thinking the B12 is stable because no one wants any of the teams they currently have. In the immortal words of Jimmy Soul…

If you want to be happy

Agree with this, just the leftovers in the B12

 

[MikeSU02]

If FSU were able to leave, they would have left.

This isn’t a spoiled child wanting a snickers bar and not getting it and having a fit.

Also, any conference that would want a new team, wouldn’t want that potential program throwing a public fit.

FSU and Miami were supposed to anchor ACC football and they both have not. FSU is going to be in the ACC for a bit before they do anything else.

In that time, Disney and espn (traditional) and espn (DTC), and believe me - they are basically two different entities - are going to look a lot different, as will the media landscape.

 

[Dick_in_MI]

What is going on now is just a short-term hold until the next round which will be the final round for a long time.

I tend to agree with this. In the interim, SU has a chance to slap a fresh coat of paint on our sports teams to make ourselves as attractive as we can. We will end up where we will end up, but you are right that the current equilibrium has an expiration date.

 

[Stern]

I still wonder if there are two mega conferences, they still need inventory against the lesser runs. they can't possibly just play an NFL like schedule without some cupcakes no? I would think if the money is so disparate that the buy-in games for these independents could be decent ultimately.

That is already being spoken about in the Big 10, only playing conference games in all sports and no more games vs other conferences. If the TV money is there for it, then why play any games outside of conference?

Especially when the SEC/BIG10 breaks away from the NCAA altogether.

 

[sutomcat]

Yes, there is a way to calculate the minimum, as has been discussed ad nauseum.

1) The exit fees is 3X the annual payout. With a $42MM payout this year, if FSU announces by August 15, the exit fee is $126MM. Read the ACC bylaws.

2) The GOR has 13 seasons left, we know FSU must play this season, leaving 12 potential seasons to pay for. Again, the payout was $42MM. $42MM X 12 years = $480MM. Remember no conference will accept FSU unless they bring their TV rights with them. Otherwise the ACC and ESPN own the right rights to FSU games.

3) Add the exit fee and the GOR: $126MM + $480MM = $606MM. This is the minimum.

4) OU and UT set the baseline standard of a factor of 2.1, thus the exit fee $126MM + (rights buyback $480MM X 2.1 = $1.008BB) = $1.134BB, this is likely the target for the ACC and ESPN to begin negotiations.

The $300MM was floated by FSU, there were no ACC nor ESPN takers. Recall, ESPN is paying the ACC for FSU's TV rights, any agreement must include ESPN. We can conclude that FSU does not want to voluntarily pay more for FSU by moving them to the SEC, that is stupid business and damages the ACC, an ESPN property. Thus, ESPN would be losing FSU to Fox, don't expect ESPN to make it easy on FSU; nor will the ACC.

This is good work but the numbers are actually must worse for FSU.

The contract between the ACC and ESPN for TV revenue escalates every year. It is at $42M now. It was considerably less than that 5 years ago.

According to Hokie Mark, it will be up to $46 million by 2031 and will be all the way to $56 million by 2036.

ACC Revenue Projection from Forbes Statement

This blog is about ACC Football - past glory, what went wrong, and how to fix it and get back to the glory days again.

accfootballrx.blogspot.com

 

[elimunelson]

That is already being spoken about in the Big 10, only playing conference games in all sports and no more games vs other conferences. If the TV money is there for it, then why play any games outside of conference?

Especially when the SEC/BIG10 breaks away from the NCAA altogether.

If that is the ultimate goal then Syracuse football will die. I see no scenario where we continue in a scenario where the best 40 schools are not accessible to SU. Not sure how basketball operates if these conferences break away from the NCAA but this would be a nuclear scenario.

I think if they decide on a biosphere product where they don't leave their conference, congress will 100% bite their hand.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

We won't end up in the BIG or SEC. can we dispel those two pipe dreams?

13 years is a long time. If somehow the ACC went away (not sure it's in anyones best interest), my guess is we find our way back to the Big East for hoops and olympic sports and some sort of independent collective with ND/BC/Pitt/Stanford/Cal/Army/Navy/WF.

I still wonder if there are two mega conferences, they still need inventory against the lesser runs. they can't possibly just play an NFL like schedule without some cupcakes no? I would think if the money is so disparate that the buy-in games for these independents could be decent ultimately.

If the B1G went to 24 teams and divisions of 4, who are the last teams considered? SU would be one of them and maybe even the favorite.

 

[qdawgg]

Yes, there is a way to calculate the minimum, as has been discussed ad nauseum.

1) The exit fees is 3X the annual payout. With a $42MM payout this year, if FSU announces by August 15, the exit fee is $126MM. Read the ACC bylaws.

2) The GOR has 13 seasons left, we know FSU must play this season, leaving 12 potential seasons to pay for. Again, the payout was $42MM. $42MM X 12 years = $480MM. Remember no conference will accept FSU unless they bring their TV rights with them. Otherwise the ACC and ESPN own the right rights to FSU games.

3) Add the exit fee and the GOR: $126MM + $480MM = $606MM. This is the minimum.

4) OU and UT set the baseline standard of a factor of 2.1, thus the exit fee $126MM + (rights buyback $480MM X 2.1 = $1.008BB) = $1.134BB, this is likely the target for the ACC and ESPN to begin negotiations.

The $300MM was floated by FSU, there were no ACC nor ESPN takers. Recall, ESPN is paying the ACC for FSU's TV rights, any agreement must include ESPN. We can conclude that FSU does not want to voluntarily pay more for FSU by moving them to the SEC, that is stupid business and damages the ACC, an ESPN property. Thus, ESPN would be losing FSU to Fox, don't expect ESPN to make it easy on FSU; nor will the ACC.

And in 2 hours, he'll make the same post, essentially. On this thread or the other one, that nobody knows what the exit fee will be and there's no way to calculate it.

 

[Scooch]

That is already being spoken about in the Big 10, only playing conference games in all sports and no more games vs other conferences. If the TV money is there for it, then why play any games outside of conference?

Especially when the SEC/BIG10 breaks away from the NCAA altogether.

I think to justify increases in the next (and next next) media deals the B1G and SEC will have to provide more “inventory”. Which means a largely conference-only slate and more games overall.

So I’d expect to see the regular season creep from 12 to 14 games over the next decade. And the conference slate will be 12 of those 14 for each team.

Basically college football is going to loosely resemble MLB up until inter league play started.

 

[kirbivore]

Has the dude of WV posted yet

Can't wait for Clay Travis and Frank the Tank to weigh in.

 

[Giants1973]

Independent in football and Back the BIG east for basketball

 

[OrlandoCuse]

Yes, please

Probably the most logical realignment I’ve seen

 

[OrlandoCuse]

If the B1G went to 24 teams and divisions of 4, who are the last teams considered? SU would be one of them and maybe even the favorite.

Hmmmm, nope

 

[Orangezoo]

You telling me that I should go to a class. Just because sometimes busy and I don't proofread after I use the microphone number one. That wouldn'twarrant a class.

There's nothing wrong with my typing genius., Long story short, you are not ruining my day whatsoever. So do whatever value you want. I could care less.

 

[HRE Otto IV]

Hmmmm, nope

Then who? Can’t say nope without an alternative.

 

[SmilinBob]

Maybe SU could go to the NFC or AFC south? Or... invite those teams to the ACC.

 

[FrancoPizza]

What is going on now is just a short-term hold until the next round which will be the final round for a long time. By then Congress will have stepped in, ESPN will either be sold or in a partnership with a streaming player. The ACC will finally become the aggressor and add a few strategic partners.

What has the ACC done thus far to make you such a cockeyed optimist? Billy Mumphrey, I'll have what your drinking.

 

[elimunelson]

Independent in football and Back the BIG east for basketball

I'd take this in a heartbeat. Until I see a specific study that more money equals better success why not go back to what works.

UConn has flourished basketball wise without our checkbook
Gonzaga has flourished basketball wise without our checkbook

Our football is never going to compete with Alabama or Michigan financially. Evergreen comment since 1970. Basketball is where our resources should be directed. That's our golden goose. Football is fun and a diversion but hasn't had any meaningful success since we left the Orange Bowl in 1999. we are what we are. We occasionally punch above our weight but success wise, we're a 500 team for the morst part. Thankfully BC is as well and they are going to be most likely traveling to wherever our football goes ultimately.

I think when the musical chairs stop, i hope the school realizes that being in the B12 (so dumb) makes no sense for our university. I say that hoping the ACC just remains and that's our home long term but i suspect a pipe dream

 

[HRE Otto IV]

I'd take this in a heartbeat. Until I see a specific study that more money equals better success why not go back to what works.

UConn has flourished basketball wise without our checkbook
Gonzaga has flourished basketball wise without our checkbook

Our football is never going to compete with Alabama or Michigan financially. Evergreen comment since 1970. Basketball is where our resources should be directed. That's our golden goose. Football is fun and a diversion but hasn't had any meaningful success since we left the Orange Bowl in 1999. we are what we are. We occasionally punch above our weight but success wise, we're a 500 team for the morst part. Thankfully BC is as well and they are going to be most likely traveling to wherever our football goes ultimately.

I think when the musical chairs stop, i hope the school realizes that being in the B12 (so dumb) makes no sense for our university. I say that hoping the ACC just remains and that's our home long term but i suspect a pipe dream

If we are left behind and do not want the B12, I think our best best if the Academic Coast Conference.

In the West you have Cal and Stanford. If Washington declines paying players maybe they come? Air Force is an option. Would the B12 corner schools move?

In the South you have GA Tech, Duke, Wake, and maybe UVA. SMU, Rice, Tulane, Vandy as potentials.

In the Midwest you potentials in Notre Dame, Northwestern, Missouri, Illinois. Not sure if any other B1G would decline.

In the Northeast you have Pitt, SU, BC. Potentials UConn, Rutgers, Maryland, Army, Navy, Temple, Villanova.


I think you could get 16-20 schools that all like minded. If paying players becomes a thing, that might be what causes the B1G and SEC lower level schools to leave.


Edit

The below wouldn't be a good FB conference but it would be an academic powerhouse and decent BBall conference.

Stanford, Cal, Air Force
Rice, SMU, Tulsa
Vanderbilt, Tulane, GA Tech
Duke, Wake, Navy
SU, Pitt, Villanova
BC, UConn, Army

 

[ECE '76]

Independent in football and Back the BIG east for basketball

That means trying to make your own TV deals for football. Football pays the freight right now for the whole Ath Dept with ACC money from the league TV deal. I can't see SU getting anywhere near that income as an independent.

 

[ECE '76]

I think when the musical chairs stop, i hope the school realizes that being in the B12 (so dumb) makes no sense for our university. I say that hoping the ACC just remains and that's our home long term but i suspect a pipe dream

The Big12 moved three schools up from the G5: UCF, Cincinnati, Houston. Utah was G5 until they joined the Pac12 in 2011. If the Big 12 still takes UConn, they become P5.

Now, 4 P5 schools are looking at being demoted to G5: Wash State, Oregon St, Stanford, and Cal. Not only are leagues being disbanded, schools are being demoted in this process! Sadly, SU is at this risk, over time. As much as I don't see the Big 12 as a fit, it might be the only way SU has a path to remain a P5, if the ACC falls apart like the Pac10 just did.

 

[Cuse#1]

 

[Cuse#1]

I saw this today and I gotta say it was quite encouraging And the better news from my perspective is that in my opinion, a lot of that is a 100% accurate.

Syracuse definitely has to be on the ball. Right now, every move has to be based around realignment. So you gotta spend the money for the best coach you can get if it comes to that? Assistant coaches! You're doing good on facilities. You gotta keep it up. You have to look as attractive as possible. Anything and everything to make us look like a better brand, etc to the big 2 conf., even big 12 if we have too. Because we never know when this is gonna take place the employee of ACC.
If at all I mean, you know come on. I gotta be somewhat of an optimist