There are a million different ways this could all go. Including the B16 and SEC never adding again.
How I see it…
UNC 76% B16. I could see them in the SEC but I think they are B16 bound.
UVA 76% B16. Where UNC goes, they will follow.
BC 67% ACC. I think they are looking at ACC or AAC. They better hope the ACC doesn’t fold.
Duke 67% ACC. It is possible that UNC throws them a lifeline. The B12 would have interest too, but I think they stay.
FSU 67% B12. I think their ego makes them leave the ACC no matter what. But I am not sure they get a B16 or SEC invite.
Louisville 67% B12. I think they would leave the ACC if offered but would they get an invite?
Wake 67% ACC. Nobody wants them. Like BC it is ACC or AAC.
Clemson 51% B12. I think they have a better chance at the SEC than FSU and are more willing to stay in the ACC.
GA Tech 51% ACC. I could see them getting a B16 invite. B12 would like them but ACC is the better fit.
Miami 51% ACC. They could end up anywhere. But at the end of the day the academic fit of the ACC and big fish aspect wins out. They would get lost in those other conferences.
NC State 51% SEC. Do they get an invite? If not do they stay ACC or go B12?
Pitt 51% ACC. There is a long shot at the B16. But I think they will need to decide between the B12 (Cincy, Louisville, WV) or the ACC (BC, Duke, SU).
SU 51% ACC. We are the biggest program in the Northeast so we likely get an invite somewhere. I think our best fit is a rebuilt ACC.
VA Tech 51% SEC. Same as with NC State.
So…
B16
UNC, UVA
SEC
NC State, VA Tech
B12
Clemson, FSU, Louisville
ACC
BC, Duke, GA Tech, Miami, Pitt, SU, Wake, and Notre Dame non FB
At a minimum that ACC would need to add 3 FB schools and I think at a max 5:
Army/Navy 51% as FB onlies. They have name recognition, history, academics, location. Would they come? Would the ACC offer?
Nova 51%. They have the academic fit, BBall fit, location fit, and market. Would they go FBS? Would they leave the Big East?
UConn 49%. They would fit for BBall and location. Not so much as a school. I think the B12 might grab them first though.
FAU 34%. Only if Miami is gone. They showed that they care about sports by moving up to the AAC and with the F4 run.
James Madison 34%. They add VA. They have had success at lower levels in FB. I think they only get an invite if you need one more team to fill out the league.
Temple 34%. Mainly if Nova says no.
USF 34%. They have the market but are not a fit as a school. Also they are a mess in both FB and BBall. But they are in Florida for recruiting should you need a team there.
And if Army/Navy come on the FB side, then I could see Georgetown and St Johns on the BBall side.
I think should SU get left out of the P2, that our best scenario is staying in the ACC along with...
Army/St Johns, BC, Duke, GA Tech, Miami, Navy/Georgetown, Notre Dame, Nova, Pitt, Wake
Which gives us a round robin 9 game FB conference schedule and a 20 game BBall.