Inside Syracuse’s rough off-season: How portal misses and a lack of NIL money led to a lost year

[Scooch]

We agree there. That's why anything less than 23-24 wins it makes no sense to bring Red back for year 4. I'm sure some think that's harsh, but we are most likely just running out the clock here.

This is why can’t get too worked up about Autry’s hiring. Getting JB out was a multi-year, immensely frustrating process. I truly think the only way he was going to step aside (with a considerable amount of pushing aside) without going thermonuclear on the university was to hire Autry as his replacement.

And that applies to a large amount of boosters and former players as well.

We’ll know what the future holds by this time next year, I imagine. This offseason is either a home run that propels us into the tourney, or it’s not and Red is let go.

 

[Red2003]

So say we hit home runs in the portal and Autry saves his job following a tournament birth. Will he be proactive or reactive when conditions inevitably change again in College Basketball? How will we avoid seasons like these under his supervision moving forward when we are caught by surprise of changing conditions. We need a proactive mindset from our leader to live up to our historical reputation.

This is the Fear. And Fear is the Mindkiller!

 

[Scooch]

Also, just remember, that every other program in the country is trying to get better as well. Not just us. And a lot of them have been doing it better than we have for a while now.

I’m going to beat a similar drum regarding player compensation. It’s good that our pool of money will be larger than last year. But so will every other program’s as well.

There is going to be meaningful inflation this offseason. The $1 million deals that shocked this staff last summer will be $2 million and $3 million deals this year.

I hope we’re prepared for that.

 

[sufan59]

This is all so tiresome.

Absolving Red of massive ownership and culpability in any capacity is a farce. As others have pointed out, we're talking about being better than Random State University and just making an NCAAT.

It's been almost a decade, basically, where this program hasn't been operating like a modern program.

We have people on this board dismissing or questioning using analytics when they've been around going on years and years. That is all part and parcel with this conversation.

This article, these actions or lack there of, this blaming the players/NIL/the boogeyman is just air coverage for the Syracuse community. As though it will do anything when we keep losing. It's an article to assuage magical thinking and the latest iteration of that thinking that's been going on for almost a decade at this point.

Think about it this way, what do people think competitors in our peer group (god help us whatever that is now) would want? Syracuse to keep Red or Syracuse to go get a Hodgson or someone else? Honestly, think about if the roles were reversed? We'd absolutely love them to keep the status quo.

Who cares. This program is broken. We've let this thing slide to such depths that the only question that is asked in the CBB community outside of Syracuse is "what happened?" and "why are you so awful?".

And they're right. None of these small items mean anything. It's stomping out a cigarette in the middle of a forest fire until there is real systemic change.

Also, just remember, that every other program in the country is trying to get better as well. Not just us. And a lot of them have been doing it better than we have for a while now.

Honestly atleast on the internet. I’m starting to see that we have simply have gone too long without an elite team that it’s not even that fun anymore for our rivals. Now even they have limits to how much success they want to see us have, but us, Georgetown, and UConn making the tournament on a rate of 8 or 9 out of 10 seasons again is great for College Basketball. We will be conference foes again. Especially UConn. When and how, I don’t know. But we need to have our program together and stabilized at a tournament floor level in anticipation of that happening.

 

[Red2003]

I’m going to beat a similar drum regarding player compensation. It’s good that our pool of money will be larger than last year. But so will every other program’s as well.

There is going to be meaningful inflation this offseason. The $1 million deals that shocked this staff last summer will be $2 million and $3 million deals this year.

I hope we’re prepared for that.

Exactly. So many people here are more informed than the average fan on NIL yet they do not realize there are 20 teams in the NCAA that do not have budgets. Their budget is what their rival will pay.
There is a tier above and everyone else.

 

[Bulldog04]

The thing that has been a constant since I’ve been watching SU and supporting athletics is that they are always reacting and not anticipating. Ever. From facilities to fundraising, by the time they catch up, they are already behind.

In terms of bball, everything that could go wrong has gone wrong. From lack of prep, to players being injured to questionable coaching, this has been a disaster year but call me crazy, I actually think they needed this to happen. This is waking everyone up across the board. It’s time to put up or shut up

 

[Scooch]

Exactly. So many people here are more informed than the average fan on NIL yet they do not realize there are 20 teams in the NCAA that do not have budgets. Their budget is what their rival will pay.
There is a tier above and everyone else.

Honestly I don’t even worry about those SEC and B1G teams (and Duke). We’ll always lose to them in terms of player compensation.

What I hope SU is prepared for is that the next level of programs all have more to spend than last year.

If I hear this summer that we lost out on players X, Y and Z because “who could have known the going rate for a tier 2 PG was $2 million now?” I’m going to lose it.

 

[PoppyHart]

Red is gonna be on a really short leash next year, and if he isn’t a good boy he’ll be on a really, really, short leash in ‘27, and in 2028….

My god! This guy is a complete anchor on the program. It seems like he’s a 10+ point handicap against the top tier coaches, and 5-6 points against the theoretical replacement coach.

Being a “stuck in the middle” team is said to be the worst place possible for a professional franchise. I fear that’s our pinnacle if Red puts all the pieces together.

I know money talks, but I am so curious to see how portal kids respond to the offers this offseason. Would Chucky Hepburn et al have still gone to Louisville if Payne was still around?

 

[JeremyCuse]

This is why can’t get too worked up about Autry’s hiring. Getting JB out was a multi-year, immensely frustrating process. I truly think the only way he was going to step aside (with a considerable amount of pushing aside) without going thermonuclear on the university was to hire Autry as his replacement.

And that applies to a large amount of boosters and former players as well.

We’ll know what the future holds by this time next year, I imagine. This offseason is either a home run that propels us into the tourney, or it’s not and Red is let go.

It's tourney or bust next year, there will be no in between, full stop.

 

[Red2003]

Honestly I don’t even worry about those SEC and B1G teams (and Duke). We’ll always lose to them in terms of player compensation.

What I hope SU is prepared for is that the next level of programs all have more to spend than last year.

If I hear this summer that we lost out on players X, Y and Z because “who could have known the going rate for a tier 2 PG was $2 million now?” I’m going to lose it.

I agree but people really need to wake up and realize that we are no longer in the conversation with these top tier teams.

Far too many people here are living in a world where they think we can get back to that. They think we should be what we used to be but that's going to the be exception not the norm going forward.

Don't get me wrong, the tourney is the minimum expected but sitting as 3-4 seeds and sweet 16's are just not going to happen often any more. It requires being competitive for the best talent every year and that is not us even with top coaching.

In every conversation you hear from our program or even on this thread it's budget this or budget that, we won't overpay for players. Right now though There are 20 teams that will overpay even for their 12th man or 3rd choices just to get them so the next team doesn't get them.

 

[IthacaMatt]

This is SU laying the narrative for Red being retained

100%. Excuse making won't make him a better coach.
They better actually play defense next year, or he's done anyway.

 

[IthacaMatt]

They did a pretty awful job. Basically said Red neglected to fund raise for NIL, couldnt foresee that he needed to replace the players he pushed out of the program, failed to do any portal research before the end of the season and then went on to get out bid on every top players and fill the roster with pieces that don't fit together.

Sounds like he doesn't spend very much time working at his job.

 

[IthacaMatt]

Seems like a huge red flag no pun intended. How do you not have a plan coming into being hired for the portal when you know the landscape has changed.

The entire staff was coasting for the last 10 years.
They think the Syracuse brand is still 1987-2010.

 

[IthacaMatt]

This is definitely a bad look for Red and staff, no question. But shouldn’t some of the blame pie go to the AD? Don’t/shouldn’t they have a read on the landscape and beef up our operations as needed? We seem like we have fallen so far behind here, like we’re running a Mickey Mouse operation.

Well, considering Wildhack was probably the main source for the story, I would expect he wasn't taking any blame.

 

[IthacaMatt]

Where to start….

I don’t even know, I’ll spout random thoughts.

All I know is, it feels like we are 2-3 years behind the current landscape of CBB reality. Like our current NIL probably was in line for a solid class in the 21-22 time frame. This NIL thing is evolving so fast, if we keep playing catch up we will be consistently “a day late and a dollar short” as a poster already alluded to.

I gave a lecture at Newhouse about a year ago. It was a class about sportswriting, and I did a big chunk on how it has changed over time, from more literary style (like Grantland Rice) to more personality driven (like Stephen A. Smith).

I also talked about about ways that student athletes can monetize through podcasts, NIL, blogs, etc. I got mocked brutally by some people involved in our own NIL efforts for being way out of touch with how much money people really were costing.

I had used publicly available sports articles (and did a ton of online research) regarding who had been paid how much to join a particular team. I also talked about pro athletes, and how much money people can earn from social media.

Figures that were only 3 months old were already hopelessly out of date. I think last off-season's basketball NIL went through the roof compared to the numbers that were reported for people who signed for the 2023-24 season.

So yes, it's changing really fast, and it's getting really expensive.

 

[IthacaMatt]

the ultimatum is next year IMO. He needs a substantial improvement next year or he's gone.

If we wind up winning 10-15 games again next year, Wildhack should go, too.
This is his call not to fire Autry. I'll bet our season tickets fall to 10,000 next year, maybe less.

 

[phil77]

I agree but people really need to wake up and realize that we are no longer in the conversation with these top tier teams.

Far too many people here are living in a world where they think we can get back to that. They think we should be what we used to be but that's going to the be exception not the norm going forward.

Don't get me wrong, the tourney is the minimum expected but sitting as 3-4 seeds and sweet 16's are just not going to happen often any more. It requires being competitive for the best talent every year and that is not us even with top coaching.

In every conversation you hear from our program or even on this thread it's budget this or budget that, we won't overpay for players. Right now though There are 20 teams that will overpay even for their 12th man or 3rd choices just to get them so the next team doesn't get them.

That is why coaching is so important at our school we will never have the talent to win at a high level because we won't have the NIL as other schools. If we are going to overpay for something it has to be coaching and coaching staff. Be creative and get out of something be the first school to hire a skill specialty coach like a shooting coach that can work with kids year round etc. Offer other things that other schools right now.

 

[IthacaMatt]

So going from horrible to at-large tourney team wouldn't be significant enough improvement for you?

It's not going to bring back the thousands of fans they've lost in the last several years. This is about making money for the University. We absolutely see that it's not about winning. And they have lost a ton of money. Next year could be a bloodbath for the basketball team.

 

[IthacaMatt]

Donnie seems like a test the nba / portal as backup candidate.

He's not on any draft boards, in case you haven't noticed.

 

[Jasoncuse]

Any

They did a pretty awful job. Basically said Red neglected to fund raise for NIL, couldnt foresee that he needed to replace the players he pushed out of the program, failed to do any portal research before the end of the season and then went on to get out bid on every top players and fill the roster with pieces that don't fit together.

if all true, how can the school bring this guy back?

Didn’t raise NIL funds and couldn’t tell he needed to replace departures? How incompetent could one be?

Not to mention that this whole story leads directly to the fact that Red can’t coach and has no system. If he could and did, we could overcome mid-tier funding.

 

[IthacaMatt]

This is all so tiresome.

Absolving Red of massive ownership and culpability in any capacity is a farce. As others have pointed out, we're talking about being better than Random State University and just making an NCAAT.

It's been almost a decade, basically, where this program hasn't been operating like a modern program.

We have people on this board dismissing or questioning using analytics when they've been around going on years and years. That is all part and parcel with this conversation.

This article, these actions or lack there of, this blaming the players/NIL/the boogeyman is just air coverage for the Syracuse community. As though it will do anything when we keep losing. It's an article to assuage magical thinking and the latest iteration of that thinking that's been going on for almost a decade at this point.

Think about it this way, what do people think competitors in our peer group (god help us whatever that is now) would want? Syracuse to keep Red or Syracuse to go get a Hodgson or someone else? Honestly, think about if the roles were reversed? We'd absolutely love them to keep the status quo.

Who cares. This program is broken. We've let this thing slide to such depths that the only question that is asked in the CBB community outside of Syracuse is "what happened?" and "why are you so awful?".

And they're right. None of these small items mean anything. It's stomping out a cigarette in the middle of a forest fire until there is real systemic change.

Also, just remember, that every other program in the country is trying to get better as well. Not just us. And a lot of them have been doing it better than we have for a while now.

I agree. This is a desperate, transparent plea to try to keep half the fans from dropping their season tickets this summer.

 

[NKR1978]

We just need our "Kyle McCord" for basketball.

I like that new one from Griff.

Clown show. Like these coaches would know what to do with that level of talent.

 

[djcon57]

Honestly I don’t even worry about those SEC and B1G teams (and Duke). We’ll always lose to them in terms of player compensation.

What I hope SU is prepared for is that the next level of programs all have more to spend than last year.

If I hear this summer that we lost out on players X, Y and Z because “who could have known the going rate for a tier 2 PG was $2 million now?” I’m going to lose it.

Yep and the SEC type teams strawman. Enough.

We asking to MAKE THE TOURNEY. Not win the tourney, Matt Park.
MAKE THE TOURNEY.

 

[IthacaMatt]

Any

if all true, how can the school bring this guy back?

Didn’t raise NIL funds and couldn’t tell he needed to replace departures? How incompetent could one be?

Not to mention that this whole story leads directly to the fact that Red can’t coach and has no system. If he could and did, we could overcome mid-tier funding.

Wildhack is not very smart about PR. He had no objectivity about how this would sound.

 

[RF2044]

This is all so tiresome.

Absolving Red of massive ownership and culpability in any capacity is a farce. As others have pointed out, we're talking about being better than Random State University and just making an NCAAT.

It's been almost a decade, basically, where this program hasn't been operating like a modern program.

We have people on this board dismissing or questioning using analytics when they've been around going on years and years. That is all part and parcel with this conversation.

This article, these actions or lack there of, this blaming the players/NIL/the boogeyman is just air coverage for the Syracuse community. As though it will do anything when we keep losing. It's an article to assuage magical thinking and the latest iteration of that thinking that's been going on for almost a decade at this point.

Think about it this way, what do people think competitors in our peer group (god help us whatever that is now) would want? Syracuse to keep Red or Syracuse to go get a Hodgson or someone else? Honestly, think about if the roles were reversed? We'd absolutely love them to keep the status quo.

Who cares. This program is broken. We've let this thing slide to such depths that the only question that is asked in the CBB community outside of Syracuse is "what happened?" and "why are you so awful?".

And they're right. None of these small items mean anything. It's stomping out a cigarette in the middle of a forest fire until there is real systemic change.

Also, just remember, that every other program in the country is trying to get better as well. Not just us. And a lot of them have been doing it better than we have for a while now.

Yup.

It's beyond goofy at this point.