Perhaps instead of crazy, it's more of a reflection of the league being considerably down this year. At this moment, IMO, it appears the league has 3 locks, Louisville, Duke and FSU. It appears that UVA now resides with the "rest of the pack" and nowhere near the sure thing type sentiment JB gave the impression they were in his post game presser after the season's opening game.
Out of this cluster, we could finish as high as 4th in the league to as low as 10th or so, without there really being much at all that separates any of those teams. I'm not sure what these other teams out of conference records are against other quality P5 type opponents, etc., but I know ours is bad. With that said, I could easily see a case where if we finish 4th or 5th in the conference, a team finishing say 7th or 8th could get in over us depending on its OOC record, quality wins, etc.