Jerami Grant

[chugg21]

Well, do you think Wes was a bust? He's not a superstar (mostly defensive player). But he's been in the league 8 years, is starting for the Clippers and making almost $6M a year? I mean, maybe that's not the high (scoring) ceiling you'd hope for in a #4 pick, but it's not a bust either. IMO.

I think he would definitely qualify as a draft bust. His career and his earnings are both fine but he was drafted #4 overall and was on his 4th team by year 6.

 

[OrangeDW]

1 of which spent a minute in college and that's after his stock started to fall by staying for just a 2nd year.

He went 6th right? How much did it really fall? MCW was also a lottery pick. Julius Randle. Lonzo Ball went number 2 despite that jumper. It’s not that rare.

 

[chugg21]

You seem to value players only by their jump shot. By that metric, MCW is not a good player. Fortunately, that's not the only skill that GM's value. MCW would not be starting for the Hornets (until he was injured late last year) if he didn't provide defense and distribution to (better scorers). Same with Grant -- he's on OKC to rebound, to be a secondary (and sometimes primary) rim protector and occasional scorer. He does the things they need him to do extremely well. It's not only about scoring.

We were talking about guys increasing their stock and going in the lottery. Guys that stay longer in college and still don't have a functional jumper don't jump up into the lotto.

It's hard to respond to your post if you really believe those things. MCW is bad by every metric and in every GM's mind. Why do you think that he is on his 4th team in 5 years? I can give you a hint that he has never shot over 27% from deep during any season in his career and ruins the spacing for any team that he is on because his guy does not have to guard him outside of 15 feet. Over the past 2 years he has averaged 5 points and 2 assists while shooting 23% from 3. That's the reason his option was turned down and he barely got a sniff in FA before the Hornets gave him a 1 year $2.7m deal that could potentially be the last in his career.

 

[OrangeDW]

Well, do you think Wes was a bust? He's not a superstar (mostly defensive player). But he's been in the league 8 years, is starting for the Clippers and making almost $6M a year? I mean, maybe that's not the high (scoring) ceiling you'd hope for in a #4 pick, but it's not a bust either. IMO.

I would classify him as a “mild bust”. Long career, decent enough player to start/be in rotation. But at #4 you’re hoping to get an all star or at least a good starter.

Major busts are guys like Anthony Bennett who perform awful, can’t get minutes, and are out of the league within a few years. Gotta wonder if Jahlil Okafor is on that path.

 

[chugg21]

He went 6th right? How much did it really fall? MCW was also a lottery pick. Julius Randle. Lonzo Ball went number 2 despite that jumper. It’s not that rare.

Lonzo's jumper is ugly but functional. He shot 41% at UCLA from deep on nearly 200 attempts. You also just keep mentioning 1 and done guys. The whole point of the arguments being made were if Grant would've moved into the lottery from the 2nd round by staying for a 3RD YEAR. Find me examples of guys who still had no shot that elevated themselves to the lottery after their jr or sr years.

 

[chugg21]

I would classify him as a “mild bust”. Long career, decent enough player to start/be in rotation. But at #4 you’re hoping to get an all star or at least a good starter.

Major busts are guys like Anthony Bennett who perform awful, can’t get minutes, and are out of the league within a few years. Gotta wonder if Jahlil Okafor is on that path.

I put Okafor up there with Thabeet in guys that I will never understand how they ended up so bad in the pros. Thabeet used to absolutely destroy us and the entire country defensively and that kind of trait usually translates seamlessly to the NBA.

 

[reedny]

We were talking about guys increasing their stock and going in the lottery. Guys that stay longer in college and still don't have a functional jumper don't jump up into the lotto.

It's hard to respond to your post if you really believe those things. MCW is bad by every metric and in every GM's mind. Why do you think that he is on his 4th team in 5 years? I can give you a hint that he has never shot over 27% from deep during any season in his career and ruins the spacing for any team that he is on because his guy does not have to guard him outside of 15 feet. Over the past 2 years he has averaged 5 points and 2 assists while shooting 23% from 3. That's the reason his option was turned down and he barely got a sniff in FA before the Hornets gave him a 1 year $2.7m deal that could potentially be the last in his career.

And those are the reasons I agreed with you as to MCW.

 

[HOFCeluck]

I put Okafor up there with Thabeet in guys that I will never understand how they ended up so bad in the pros. Thabeet used to absolutely destroy us and the entire country defensively and that kind of trait usually translates seamlessly to the NBA.

Eh he was a rail and I recall at least one occasion where he got tossed around by Dajuan Blair like he was the Brooklyn Brawler.

 

[reedny]

Lonzo's jumper is ugly but functional. He shot 41% at UCLA from deep on nearly 200 attempts. You also just keep mentioning 1 and done guys. The whole point of the arguments being made were if Grant would've moved into the lottery from the 2nd round by staying for a 3RD YEAR. Find me examples of guys who still had no shot that elevated themselves to the lottery after their jr or sr years.

Lottery is a straw man in some ways. Grant was not a lottery pick. Still he could have gone higher in the draft if he had stayed in college and developed. I think the Duke article gives many examples of this at another program. I would argue that Grant is the opposite of a bust, that he's overachieved based on his draft selection.

 

[chugg21]

Lottery is a straw man in some ways. Grant was not a lottery pick. Still he could have gone higher in the draft if he had stayed in college and developed. I think the Duke article gives many examples of this at another program. I would argue that Grant is the opposite of a bust, that he's overachieved based on his draft selection.

I would absolutely agree that Grant is a steal. Any player that goes in round 2 and turns into a functional rotation player is a godsend to their team. Any player that does it and was signed to a Hinkie Special contract is completely nuts.

 

[OrangeDW]

Lonzo's jumper is ugly but functional. He shot 41% at UCLA from deep on nearly 200 attempts. You also just keep mentioning 1 and done guys. The whole point of the arguments being made were if Grant would've moved into the lottery from the 2nd round by staying for a 3RD YEAR. Find me examples of guys who still had no shot that elevated themselves to the lottery after their jr or sr years.

Earl Clark went 14th after his junior year. Just missed lottery.

I only thought of him because I used to compare Grant to Clark, thinking that’s the type of player he could become.

Clark really faded quickly from the league though. He had a decent year with the Lakers. I liked him a lot and thought he was on his way...then it was downhill from there and out of the league in a couple more years.

 

[Capt. Tuttle]

How are all the others doing?

Making bank.
It amazes me that only college basketball fans think that you don't improve at your chosen job the most by doing it full time, rather than part time.

 

[realorange]

Incredible to me that some think a player is a near bust because he's making more in a year than they will in a lifetime. :noidea:

 

[OttoinGrotto]

Incredible to me that some think a player is a near bust because he's making more in a year than they will in a lifetime. :noidea:

HE WOULDA MADE MORE THAN I DO IN 2 LIFETIMES HAD HE STAYED IN SCHOOL!!!!1!

 

[orangenirvana]

Incredible to me that some think a player is a near bust because he's making more in a year than they will in a lifetime. :noidea:

You think it's about money?

I'm guessing any Minnesota Timberwolves fan will tell you emphatically that they think Wes Johnson was not just a "near bust" a full-blown bust.

Which pains me to say because he's such a great guy and was as valuable as anyone on my favorite SU team since 1996. And it's not his fault that the Timberwolves were dumb enough to select him 4th overall. But the truth is that no NBA team picks a forward 4th overall to average 7.5 points and 2.8 rebs per game through two seasons.

Minnesota Timberwolves: Why Wes Johnson Was Destined to Be a Bust

5 times NBA teams drafted a bust before a star player

Assessing Wesley Johnson's continuing mediocrity

15 NBA Players Drafted Recently Who Already Look Like Busts15 NBA Players Drafted Recently Who Already Look Like Busts

 

[reedny]

Making bank.
It amazes me that only college basketball fans think that you don't improve at your chosen job the most by doing it full time, rather than part time.

Haha, but you have to be picked for a full-time NBA job. For all but a few, optimizing your selection chances doesn't necessarily mean declaring as soon as your name shows up on a draft list. Many college prospects do better by staying in school and leading a team deep into the NCAA's (ask Justin Jackson). God forbid they might even make more money and have a college degree under their belt in case they get cut or blow out a knee.
NBA Draft 2018: The six college basketball players with the most agonizing stay-or-go decisions

 

[moqui]

Dion was the heart and soul of a pretty good Miami team last year. He’s not a nerd stats guy and never will be, but he was a large reason why they were winning. Unfortunate that he can’t stay healthy because he was really getting it done last year when he got hurt.

sometimes, when he was on the court, but Miami's performance this year indicates that Dion's contribution last year was quite replaceable

 

[realorange]

You think it's about money?

I'm guessing any Minnesota Timberwolves fan will tell you emphatically that they think Wes Johnson was not just a "near bust" a full-blown bust.

Which pains me to say because he's such a great guy and was as valuable as anyone on my favorite SU team since 1996. And it's not his fault that the Timberwolves were dumb enough to select him 4th overall. But the truth is that no NBA team picks a forward 4th overall to average 7.5 points and 2.8 rebs per game through two seasons.

Minnesota Timberwolves: Why Wes Johnson Was Destined to Be a Bust

5 times NBA teams drafted a bust before a star player

Assessing Wesley Johnson's continuing mediocrity

15 NBA Players Drafted Recently Who Already Look Like Busts15 NBA Players Drafted Recently Who Already Look Like Busts

From Wes' standpoint, money is damn important. If he is giving everything he has and is doing the best he can, he is only a bust on a comparative basis.

 

[OrangeDW]

sometimes, when he was on the court, but Miami's performance this year indicates that Dion's contribution last year was quite replaceable

Maybe. Different team and different season though. They were 27-19 when he played vs. 14-22 when he was out last year. And that was with a horrid start by both him and the team. For a long stretch they were rolling and he was a big reason why.

 

[Capt. Tuttle]

Haha, but you have to be picked for a full-time NBA job. For all but a few optimizing your selection chances doesn't necessarily mean declaring as soon as your name shows up on a draft list. Many college prospects do better by staying in school and leading a team deep into the NCAA's (ask Justin Jackson). God forbid they might even make more money and have a college degree under their belt in case they get cut or blow out a knee.
NBA Draft 2018: The six college basketball players with the most agonizing stay-or-go decisions

Such a DUMB argument. They can GO BACK to school and get a degree. College isn't limited to 17-23 year olds.

 

[reedny]

Such a DUMB argument. They can GO BACK to school and get a degree. College isn't limited to 17-23 year olds.

Much harder to return to school... there's the scholarship situation, maybe you're living in a different city and have to get a job temporarily, or you get married, etc.. etc.. It's hardly ever dumb to get more education. Ask Justin Jackson and read the link. Sometimes waiting is a BETTER DECISION ... (going with your all-caps emphasis).

 

[Waltdods]

Haha, but you have to be picked for a full-time NBA job. For all but a few optimizing your selection chances doesn't necessarily mean declaring as soon as your name shows up on a draft list. Many college prospects do better by staying in school and leading a team deep into the NCAA's (ask Justin Jackson).

Yes, and many do worse. Ask Grayson Allen. And some do exactly the same. Ask our own John Wallace, who had probably one of the best half dozen NCAA tournaments in the last twenty years as a senior and moved all the way up to ... the 18th pick.

There are examples in any direction. Ex ante though I think the expected change in draft stock is probably zero. Sometimes you’ll go up sometimes you’ll go down, a lot of times you’ll stay the same.

Once you accept that, the reason for leaving at the first available opportunty becomes clear: the likely impact on your draft stock of staying is zero, but you give up a year or earnings and risk getting hurt while playing for free.

 

[reedny]

Yes, and many do worse. Ask Grayson Allen. And some do exactly the same. Ask our own John Wallace, who had probably one of the best half dozen NCAA tournaments in the last twenty years as a senior and moved all the way up to ... the 18th pick.

There are examples in any direction. Ex ante though I think the expected change in draft stock is probably zero. Sometimes you’ll go up sometimes you’ll go down, a lot of times you’ll stay the same.

Once you accept that, the reason for leaving at the first available opportunty becomes clear: the likely impact on your draft stock of staying is zero, but you give up a year or earnings and risk getting hurt while playing for free.

But that was my point ... that you don't just jump as soon as you start appearing in the mocks. It depends. And the jury's out on Allen (he's projected first round by some). I used to think that every kid should get a college degree -- (i have this thing about being educated). But in recent years, it's clear that there are kids who are talented enough to play in the NBA and sometimes the time is right. In that case, by all means, follow Captain's advice and go. College can wait.

For others - and I think it's the majority - waiting usually doesn't hurt if it's a healthy college situation (unlike Duhk or UK when you're a prospect but don't play). Justin Jackson could have jumped after his sophomore year. He did very well waiting. Grant left way to early. Same applies to him. There are other examples of players staying in school at Nova, UNC and other schools and still getting drafted. Ennis probably left at his apogee. Tyus ... well he has a decision. But I'm not the only one suggesting that he might make more by distinguishing himself next year in college with a longer NCAA run and better efficiency. NBA Draft 2018: The six college basketball players with the most agonizing stay-or-go decisions

 

[Waltdods]

For the others - and I think it's the majority - waiting usually doesn't hurt. Justin Jackson could have jumped after his sophomore year. He did very well waiting. Grant left way to early. Same applies to him. Ennis probably left at his apogee. Tyus ... well he has a decision. And I'm not the only one suggesting that he might make more by distinguishing himself next year in college with a longer NCAA run and better efficiency. NBA Draft 2018: The six college basketball players with the most agonizing stay-or-go decisions

He definitely might! Or he might average 14 points on 42 percent shooting and see his stock tumble. Or he might get hurt.

What I am saying is that, ex ante, there is no reason to expect that your lot is going to be improved by staying. That doesn’t mean that some people won’t be better off - some will. And some will be worse off. We know this because it’s what happens.

So we are in partial agreement here. I agree that staying probably won’t leave a player worse off. I submit it probably won’t help him either. The next point I am making is that given that reality the right move is often going to be to leave because the downside risk (injury, losing a year of pay for play) is higher than the upside risk.

I do think there are good non- economic reasons to stay - college is more fun than real life for many people, even when that real life is the nba. And I suppose there is some value in the degree, though I’m skeptical of this since the schools ain’t going anywhere.

 

[Bayside44]

Making bank.
It amazes me that only college basketball fans think that you don't improve at your chosen job the most by doing it full time, rather than part time.

Good thing they only play home games in the G League.