Jerami Grant

[reedny]

If he comes back for his junior season at Syracuse, he's an All-American and at least a mid to late first rounder. And by that measure, if he was the 19th pick for argument's sake, he makes $7,568,554 on a 4-year deal. After three years, that's about $4.928M.

As it stands now in his current situation, he made $4,234,674 as a second round pick over a four-year contract. Not bad, but he could have made +$700K (plus or minus, depending on draft position) in only three years. Plus another year guaranteed (which can work both ways).

I personally think he's a lottery pick the following year, which would bump him to $6.669M. That's over two million dollars more.

This is what kills me about the "it makes more sense for you to leave now and get paid sooner" crowd. Can he do what he wants and do what's best for him? Sure. And I don't fault any of them. Just trying to point out that financially, a lot of times it makes sense to bet on yourself and stay in college like Brissett is doing.

Sure, an injury could happen. But I think the risk outweighs the reward in a couple of our cases, most specifically with Grant.

Why does he lose a lot more? He literally hit the perfect combo with a terrible team giving him that guarantee. Makes it exponentially tougher to do what he's done as a second rounder.

I give him credit and I'm super happy for him. Again, playing devil's advocate. Mainly as a frustrated Syracuse fan who really would rather see players play in college than in the NBA.

(Disclaimer: I again understand it's their right and do not fault them. Just making an argument why it isn't necessarily the optimal choice.)

Amen

 

[longislandcuse]

Huh? Dion, Wes, MCW all say hi.

Grant >>>> Wes

Dion, debatable but injuries keep holding him back since breaking out in Miami.

MCW, ROY but injury plagued since.

 

[reedny]

There’s a group who is 100 percent convinced that the college experience and playing in front of 30k is the end all be all for an NBA prospect and riding the bus between Sioux Falls and Grand Rapids is a fate worse than death.

Guilty as charged.

 

[orangenirvana]

Huh? Dion, Wes, MCW all say hi.

Among those three, Dion is the only one that is even close to a "decent and/or above-average NBA player." And he's never had a season with a PER of 15.0 or higher (considered average).

 

[kirbivore]

Correct -- he literally hit the lottery with what his path has been. If he doesn't get the 4-year guarantee as a second rounder (RARE), he's toiling in the D League or Europe after his first, unimpressive season on the worst team in the league.

I'm playing devil's advocate and love Grant -- as I do all SU players. And have always rooted for him. I just fall on the side of Boeheim on a lot of these decisions.

Grant is the only one of the recent early entrants who actually had a higher draft ceiling. All the other ones cashed out at the right time.

 

[chugg21]

Hak earned from 2005 through 2009 seasons $5,876,000 for his first 4 years (initial contract). In 2 years 2011-2013, he earned an additional $7,219.512. He had a lucrative 8 NBA year career.

If Jerami had only been the 19th pick in 2015 (ironically the same pick as his brother Jerian) he would have earned $3,215,400 that year (more than Jerami earned over 3 years) with a guarantee of at least $7,568,544 after 4 years almost double Jerami's earnings. Regardless, happy that Jerami is finally going to see the recognition and monetary result of his hard work.

I wasn't talking about money in any way. I was just trying to comprehend how anyone thought that he would be a lottery pick after his Jr year in college while still not developing a reliable jumper. I was using Hak as an example of someone that stayed in college, never developed a reliable jumper and was drafted based on mostly athleticism while also being an absolute superstar in college and still only went 19th.

 

[chugg21]

Among those three, Dion is the only one that is even close to a "decent and/or above-average NBA player." And he's never had a season with a PER of 15.0 or higher (considered average).

I'd go as far as to say that all 3 were big time busts relative to where they were drafted and their production. They've also each been given up on by at least 2 teams thus far. Dion at least turned himself from a running joke into an average player. MCW on the other hand might end up the worst shooter in NBA history.

 

[Knicks411]

I wasn't talking about money in any way. I was just trying to comprehend how anyone thought that he would be a lottery pick after his Jr year in college while still not developing a reliable jumper. I was using Hak as an example of someone that stayed in college, never developed a reliable jumper and was drafted based on mostly athleticism while also being an absolute superstar in college and still only went 19th.

I just really don't see any way Grant is ever a lotto pick. He was the 39th pick in the 2014 draft, I'm sure this happens, but the odds of you going from basically 40 to the lottery in one year, I really doubt that happens very much.

Fwiw, in the 2015 draft, the lotto picks included 8 freshmen, 3 foreign players (Including Mudiay, who would've been a frosh, KP was 19, and Hezonja) had just turned 20), one junior (Willie Cauley Stein, big man) and one senior (frank kaminsky, big man, player of the year). Kaminsky is probably the best example of a guy who vaulted into the lottery after not being considered at that level, but he was also the player of the year.

 

[orangenirvana]

I just really don't see any way Grant is ever a lotto pick. He was the 39th pick in the 2014 draft, I'm sure this happens, but the odds of you going from basically 40 to the lottery in one year, I really doubt that happens very much.

Fwiw, in the 2015 draft, the lotto picks included 8 freshmen, 3 foreign players (Including Mudiay, who would've been a frosh, KP was 19, and Hezonja) had just turned 20), one junior (Willie Cauley Stein, big man) and one senior (frank kaminsky, big man, player of the year). Kaminsky is probably the best example of a guy who vaulted into the lottery after not being considered at that level, but he was also the player of the year.

Grant wasn't even close to peaking when he left SU. Now considering the sanctions and Ennis leaving, I don't disagree with Grant's decision for leaving when he did. But if not for sanctions and if Ennis returned, that 2014-15 team would have been Top 5 all season long - possibly a national champion - and I have no doubt Grant would have elevated his game to the point of becoming at least a Top 20 pick when you consider how much he has overachieved in the NBA.

 

[reedny]

I'd go as far as to say that all 3 were big time busts relative to where they were drafted and their production. They've also each been given up on by at least 2 teams thus far. Dion at least turned himself from a running joke into an average player. MCW on the other hand might end up the worst shooter in NBA history.

MCW has had a disappointing NBA career, I'll give you that - aside from his rookie year. But calling Dion and Grant "busts" is a stretch (although you did make it "relative" to their draft position). The way I look at it, being traded and/or taking time to find the right rotation doesn't mean you're a bust. I assume you watch the NBA (I'm a knicks fan). It's absolutely CRAZY how good you have to be just to make a roster. They don't waste millions of dollars on someone unless he can play. Grant's been excellent with OKC, essentially as Melo's backup. He's long, his jump shot is, while not great, serviceable and he's athletic enough to guard the 4/5.

 

[Orangefan1]

Maybe that’s what guys will start looking at when they think of bailing college too early. They are losing more money by doing so if they figure to be projected higher the following years draft. Unfortunately most of our guys leave and normally don’t return where as other schools seem to luck out more.

Grant wasn't even close to peaking when he left SU. Now considering the sanctions and Ennis leaving, I don't disagree with Grant's decision for leaving when he did. But if not for sanctions and if Ennis returned, that 2014-15 team would have been Top 5 all season long - possibly a national champion - and I have no doubt Grant would have elevated his game to the point of becoming at least a Top 20 pick when you consider how much he has overachieved in the NBA.

 

[Knicks411]

Grant wasn't even close to peaking when he left SU. Now considering the sanctions and Ennis leaving, I don't disagree with Grant's decision for leaving when he did. But if not for sanctions and if Ennis returned, that 2014-15 team would have been Top 5 all season long - possibly a national champion - and I have no doubt Grant would have elevated his game to the point of becoming at least a Top 20 pick when you consider how much he has overachieved in the NBA.

Maybe, but
A) Easy for you to say, no harm done if he doesn't improve his stock and goes in the same area
B) lots of guys have stagnated in college. By definition, not everyone can improve their stock. its a zero sum game

 

[reedny]

I just really don't see any way Grant is ever a lotto pick. He was the 39th pick in the 2014 draft, I'm sure this happens, but the odds of you going from basically 40 to the lottery in one year, I really doubt that happens very much.

Fwiw, in the 2015 draft, the lotto picks included 8 freshmen, 3 foreign players (Including Mudiay, who would've been a frosh, KP was 19, and Hezonja) had just turned 20), one junior (Willie Cauley Stein, big man) and one senior (frank kaminsky, big man, player of the year). Kaminsky is probably the best example of a guy who vaulted into the lottery after not being considered at that level, but he was also the player of the year.

I agree ... but as to the lottery only. Even if he jumped to 19 or 20, the difference would have been significant.

 

[Knicks411]

I agree ... but as to the lottery only. Even if he jumped to 19 or 20, the difference would have been significant.

And he totally could've, don't get me wrong. But I just think the % chance of improving is nearly always overestimated. That said, easier to improve from 39 than 25 or so.

 

[CusefanATL]

Huh? Dion, Wes, MCW all say hi.

Wes and MCW have not developed into decent NBA players by anyones standards.

They are NBA players... so at least there is that. But they are both quite clearly below average NBA players.

 

[chugg21]

MCW has had a disappointing NBA career, I'll give you that. But calling Dion and Grant "busts" is a stretch (although you did make it "relative" to their draft position). The way I look at it, being traded and/or taking time to find the right rotation doesn't mean you're a bust. I assume you watch the NBA (I'm a knicks fan). It's absolutely CRAZY how good you have to be just to make a roster. They don't waste millions of dollars on someone unless he can play. Grant's been excellent with OKC, essentially as Melo's backup. He's long, his jump shot is, while not great, serviceable and he's athletic enough to guard the 4/5.

Grant wasn't one of the 3. It was Dion, Wes, MCW.

 

[chugg21]

I agree ... but as to the lottery only. Even if he jumped to 19 or 20, the difference would have been significant.

We're talking about a guy that still has a broken shot in year 4 of his NBA career. So I'm going to make a safe assumption that he wasn't going to fix that in another year at Cuse. That was what was always going to hold him back from going anywhere near the lottery. He is one of the few that has the extreme physical gifts to overcome such an impediment and actually achieve some success.

MCW has the same broken shot, maybe worse and it's just too much to overcome for a guard these days and he's going to have a real hard time staying in the league for more than another year or 2 despite having elite size and solid instincts.

 

[OrangeDW]

Wes and MCW have not developed into decent NBA players by anyones standards.

They are NBA players... so at least there is that. But they are both quite clearly below average NBA players.

Eh, Wes was a starter on bad teams and has been a rotation player on good teams. He’s always been good enough to get minutes.

MCW’s development has really been hampered by injuries and he’s been really up and down, but there have certainly been times where he’s been at least a decent player. He put up some monster playoff games against the Bulls a couple years ago, and was rookie of the year for the Sixers. He’s had his moments when healthy and playing well.

 

[OrangeDW]

We're talking about a guy that still has a broken shot in year 4 of his NBA career. So I'm going to make a safe assumption that he wasn't going to fix that in another year at Cuse. That was what was always going to hold him back from going anywhere near the lottery. He is one of the few that has the extreme physical gifts to overcome such an impediment and actually achieve some success.

MCW has the same broken shot, maybe worse and it's just too much to overcome for a guard these days and he's going to have a real hard time staying in the league for more than another year or 2 despite having elite size and solid instincts.

Guys with broken shots sometimes go in the lottery. Like you said...MCW.

Mudiay. Frank N. Marcus Smart.

 

[OrangeDW]

I'd go as far as to say that all 3 were big time busts relative to where they were drafted and their production. They've also each been given up on by at least 2 teams thus far. Dion at least turned himself from a running joke into an average player. MCW on the other hand might end up the worst shooter in NBA history.

Dion was the heart and soul of a pretty good Miami team last year. He’s not a nerd stats guy and never will be, but he was a large reason why they were winning. Unfortunate that he can’t stay healthy because he was really getting it done last year when he got hurt.

 

[reedny]

Grant wasn't one of the 3. It was Dion, Wes, MCW.

Well, do you think Wes was a bust? He's not a superstar (mostly defensive player). But he's been in the league 8 years, is starting for the Clippers and making almost $6M a year? I mean, maybe that's not the high (scoring) ceiling you'd hope for in a #4 pick, but it's not a bust either. IMO.

 

[Cusefan0307]

I suppose all these guys could have stayed and got injured in college like Mali and Lydon both did their rookie year and not been a first round pick.

 

[reedny]

We're talking about a guy that still has a broken shot in year 4 of his NBA career. So I'm going to make a safe assumption that he wasn't going to fix that in another year at Cuse. That was what was always going to hold him back from going anywhere near the lottery. He is one of the few that has the extreme physical gifts to overcome such an impediment and actually achieve some success.

MCW has the same broken shot, maybe worse and it's just too much to overcome for a guard these days and he's going to have a real hard time staying in the league for more than another year or 2 despite having elite size and solid instincts.

You seem to value players only by their jump shot. By that metric, MCW is not a good player. Fortunately, that's not the only skill that GM's value. MCW would not be starting for the Hornets (until he was injured late last year) if he didn't provide defense and distribution to (better scorers). Same with Grant -- he's on OKC to rebound, to be a secondary (and sometimes primary) rim protector and occasional scorer. He does the things they need him to do extremely well. It's not only about scoring.

 

[SoBeCuse]

Dion was the heart and soul of a pretty good Miami team last year. He’s not a nerd stats guy and never will be, but he was a large reason why they were winning. Unfortunate that he can’t stay healthy because he was really getting it done last year when he got hurt.

There is quite a bit of rumblings and scuttlebut down there about if he is truly missed out of lineup. They are 7-8 seed now. How much better would they be with him? Hard to say.

 

[chugg21]

Guys with broken shots sometimes go in the lottery. Like you said...MCW.

Mudiay. Frank N. Marcus Smart.

1 of which spent a minute in college and that's after his stock started to fall by staying for just a 2nd year.