Judah Mintz to test NBA Draft waters

[Sbucketball]

I was just watching some video and it's really crazy how much Judah improved over a few months last year, and at the Combine he was playing more like a PG and is showing great facilitation. He'll continue to improve over the off-season and he could be ACC POY next year and probably be in consideration for All American honors if he returns. He would absolutely take this team to new heights. And all that would seriously help his draft stock next year. Watching Judah tape certainly didn't help calm the anticipation of his decision. He's exactly what this team needs.

 

[CardiacCuse]

I think we all know that guys that drafted top 10, lottery, or even simply first round generally pan out more than a second round.

I think the issue is we are assuming Judah may go undrafted this year but be a first rounder next year. I wouldn’t say that’s actually very likely. If teams think that little of him now that the 55th spot is accurate for this year, there’s probably about as good a chance that waiting another year just leads him to being undrafted (which could arguably be better than being the 55th pick because he can then select where he signs but still).

Point is guys generally have to improve a ton to go from being potentially undrafted to being a first round pick. Maybe Judah will improve a ton but it's probably more likely that he only shows modest improvements, in which case he may not improve his draft stock at all and would have simply missed out on a year of development.

The history of freshmen going through the draft process, returning to school, and improving their draft stock is spotty at best. I pulled the numbers a few weeks back and I believe it happens less than half the time.

TLDR: Mintz will have to beat the odds no matter what he decides to do. Just changes which odds he’s trying to beat.

- some drafts are stronger than others...and there's no easy way to quantify that but its just true...
- this is supposedly a very strong draft while next year's is weak
- Judah actually improved a lot over the course of the freshman season - he's playing a new position - it's very rare that a player would start playing a new position in freshman season of NCAA - so comparing him to how others improved or didnt doesnt make sense - how many of those other players were trying a new position??
- he showed that he can improve a lot - so no saying that won't continue

he wouldnt stay in if he thought he would be undrafted, most likely

i dont think many people think he would go from undrafted to first round

i think you have to realize that system matters a lot too...im betting that next season the entire roster "looks" different..and has wildly different stats.

but I am with you generally - it may be that the things judah needs to improve on are just things that he wont really improve on...in that case, it is not easy to decide either way

 

[IthacaMatt]

I think we all know that guys that drafted top 10, lottery, or even simply first round generally pan out more than a second round.

I think the issue is we are assuming Judah may go undrafted this year but be a first rounder next year. I wouldn’t say that’s actually very likely. If teams think that little of him now that the 55th spot is accurate for this year, there’s probably about as good a chance that waiting another year just leads him to being undrafted (which could arguably be better than being the 55th pick because he can then select where he signs but still).

Point is guys generally have to improve a ton to go from being potentially undrafted to being a first round pick. Maybe Judah will improve a ton but it's probably more likely that he only shows modest improvements, in which case he may not improve his draft stock at all and would have simply missed out on a year of development.

The history of freshmen going through the draft process, returning to school, and improving their draft stock is spotty at best. I pulled the numbers a few weeks back and I believe it happens less than half the time.

TLDR: Mintz will have to beat the odds no matter what he decides to do. Just changes which odds he’s trying to beat.

It's also a fact that players who have successful seasons for tournament teams get drafted higher, absent outstanding personal measurables, than guys from small schools where they are the big fish in the really small pond, or their team just isn't very good. Teams like to recruit (and draft) winners. They have work ethic, they know how to work together and not just play for themselves. These things are important, too.

 

[cuseallday]

My uniformed opinion….he announces a return on Memorial day while I am 5 vodka/lemonades deep

Come on, you gotta drink something with orange juice. I prefer mimosas I'll be 4.4 deep.

 

[Niastri]

- some drafts are stronger than others...and there's no easy way to quantify that but its just true...
- this is supposedly a very strong draft while next year's is weak
- Judah actually improved a lot over the course of the freshman season - he's playing a new position - it's very rare that a player would start playing a new position in freshman season of NCAA - so comparing him to how others improved or didnt doesnt make sense - how many of those other players were trying a new position??
- he showed that he can improve a lot - so no saying that won't continue

he wouldnt stay in if he thought he would be undrafted, most likely

i dont think many people think he would go from undrafted to first round

i think you have to realize that system matters a lot too...im betting that next season the entire roster "looks" different..and has wildly different stats.

but I am with you generally - it may be that the things judah needs to improve on are just things that he wont really improve on...in that case, it is not easy to decide either way

System matters, but at the core of it, next season's system, whatever it is, is going to be even better for Mintz than last year.

Last year, with Girard and Edwards top returning players, JB gave Girard far too much time as lead guard. Mintz gradually grew into the role and was definitely ball dominant later in the year as his confidence, and the confidence JB had in him, grew.

This year, Mintz will be The Man from the first possession, and he'll know it.

Except for blowouts and rare mismatches where it makes sense for another player to start the offense, Mintz is going to be possessing the ball every meaningful possession.

 

[OHIORANGES]

If he’s “staying in the draft” he doesn’t need to announce anything. He just stays in the draft.

 

[JeffCuse]

If he’s “staying in the draft” he doesn’t need to announce anything. He just stays in the draft.

Very true. That said. I'd imagine we will fairly quickly be able to pick up on some context clues re other social activity.

 

[Zelda Zonk]

How do we know next year's draft class is 'weak?' I don't pay close enough attention to these things these days, but isn't it true that in every class players emerge, progress, develop, come out early, etc.? Or, is that prognostication already anticipating that stuff and with accuracy?

 

[RF2044]

How do we know next year's draft class is 'weak?' I don't pay close enough attention to these things these days, but isn't it true that in every class players emerge, progress, develop, come out early, etc.? Or, is that prognostication already anticipating that stuff and with accuracy?

Reasonable accuracy, given "known" people who will be in next year's draft.

There could certainly be some early entrants that blow up unexpectedly, or a few foreign prospects that emerge unexpectedly.

But the quality and depth of next year's draft is viewed by many in the sports media as being relatively weak in general, and certainly weaker than this year's group.

And of course, time will tell.

But it isn't just posters making that claim.

 

[Cuse2023]

If he’s “staying in the draft” he doesn’t need to announce anything. He just stays in the draft.

Somebody would get word and announce it, probably Rothstein. I happen to think the longer he drags this out the better chance he returns. If he was "100% set on the NBA" like Tipton and some others reported, the word would have gotten out already that he was keeping his name in the draft.

 

[llandz]

oh he's smiling..it still isn't 100+ degrees here in Arizona

Coolest hot weather we have had in a long time...It is really comfortable here.

 

[Erik]

Somebody would get word and announce it, probably Rothstein. I happen to think the longer he drags this out the better chance he returns. If he was "100% set on the NBA" like Tipton and some others reported, the word would have gotten out already that he was keeping his name in the draft.

Agree. The kid loves Syracuse! If he has already decided to stay in the draft, how does it benefit him to stay silent?

 

[rrlbees]

How do we know next year's draft class is 'weak?' I don't pay close enough attention to these things these days, but isn't it true that in every class players emerge, progress, develop, come out early, etc.? Or, is that prognostication already anticipating that stuff and with accuracy?

I heard one analyst say next years draft class is weaker overall but is stronger at guard. He didn’t differentiate between PG and SG, just said guard.

 

[tbonezone]

today's draft also boils down more to money than talent. who's looking to save and who wants to spend. very few can't miss prospects recently.

 

[50YRsofCuse]

If there is a team willing to offer prior to the draft Judah if not drafted a two year contract like Cole Swider as a two way player, shoul/would he take it?

Even then, Judah would have to go through the draft and not be drafted to have that contract. It does give them a way to work out/play for a pro team if only a couple of games or less a year.

 

[Melancer46]

- some drafts are stronger than others...and there's no easy way to quantify that but its just true...
- this is supposedly a very strong draft while next year's is weak
- Judah actually improved a lot over the course of the freshman season - he's playing a new position - it's very rare that a player would start playing a new position in freshman season of NCAA - so comparing him to how others improved or didnt doesnt make sense - how many of those other players were trying a new position??
- he showed that he can improve a lot - so no saying that won't continue

he wouldnt stay in if he thought he would be undrafted, most likely

i dont think many people think he would go from undrafted to first round

i think you have to realize that system matters a lot too...im betting that next season the entire roster "looks" different..and has wildly different stats.

but I am with you generally - it may be that the things judah needs to improve on are just things that he wont really improve on...in that case, it is not easy to decide either way

You’re not wrong. There’s a lot of reasons to think he might beat the odds. Particularly a new system that plays to his strengths and simply more experience at the position. But NBA teams are generally already kinda assuming that the improvement will be there when THEY put him in a better system and give him more experience and draft accordingly.

Statistically speaking, it’s pretty rare for freshmen to withdraw from the draft and significantly improve their stock.

I also generally disagree with the idea that this years draft is strong. I think it’s basically just Wembanyama and then a bunch of normal level prospects. Next years draft doesn’t have a Wemby but I tend to think this years class is very overrated and next years slightly underrated.

 

[CardiacCuse]

System matters, but at the core of it, next season's system, whatever it is, is going to be even better for Mintz than last year.

Last year, with Girard and Edwards top returning players, JB gave Girard far too much time as lead guard. Mintz gradually grew into the role and was definitely ball dominant later in the year as his confidence, and the confidence JB had in him, grew.

This year, Mintz will be The Man from the first possession, and he'll know it.

Except for blowouts and rare mismatches where it makes sense for another player to start the offense, Mintz is going to be possessing the ball every meaningful possession.

I wouldnt be so sure...if JB was still here, it would be that way

but now with more talent and more mouths to feed - there's really no telling how things shake out on the depth chart

Of course, Judah will get his and get minutes but there are other NBA prospects/4 and 5 star players now to share the ball with

Autry already cut bait with all of "JBs Guys" basically...last year's pecking order is irrelevant

I think it would be a mistake from a competitiveness standpoint to just let any one player dominate the ball with this roster...

 

[OrangeDW]

I wouldnt be so sure...if JB was still here, it would be that way

but now with more talent and more mouths to feed - there's really no telling how things shake out on the depth chart

Of course, Judah will get his and get minutes but there are other NBA prospects/4 and 5 star players now to share the ball with

Autry already cut bait with all of "JBs Guys" basically...last year's pecking order is irrelevant

I think it would be a mistake from a competitiveness standpoint to just let any one player dominate the ball with this roster...

Thing is - Judah is not going to dominate the ball in the NBA. Playing with other guys who can handle the ball will be good for him.

 

[Orangezoo]

Thing is - Judah is not going to dominate the ball in the NBA. Playing with other guys who can handle the ball will be good for him.

This is important and maybe the one thing a return to SU can offer real value with. Playing with two other potential NBA prospects at G and being the leader and and driving a team with other high level prospects is a much different look than his freshman year. I also believe he can be dominant defensively. At the college level he can cause havoc on primary ball handlers and prove an all league player both ways.

Again can he do these things in the G League too? Sure but cuse can compete at least better next year in offering some of those same things.

 

[dasher]

Another plus for coming back is his room and board is paid for. Factor that with the NIL money.
But that isn't why I am writing right now. We are all waiting for Judah to say what he is going to do.
But if he is staying in the draft, why would he need to say anything? He is already in the draft.

 

[orangefog]

Another plus for coming back is his room and board is paid for. Factor that with the NIL money.
But that isn't why I am writing right now. We are all waiting for Judah to say what he is going to do.
But if he is staying in the draft, why would he need to say anything? He is already in the draft.

I can't blame him either way, but as a selfish bastard, I want him back in Orange, because without him I think we have a good year, with him I think we have a GREAT year, and I know it irritates some to read run-on sentences, so I am just going to keep this going for a little bit, because I am an idiot and I wonder how long people will keep reading a post from a poster that has nothing meaningful to add, and all he does is goof around, because he has nothing better to do, but sometimes he drops a little nugget of humor and/or knowledge.

 

[Day2]

Another plus for coming back is his room and board is paid for. Factor that with the NIL money.
But that isn't why I am writing right now. We are all waiting for Judah to say what he is going to do.
But if he is staying in the draft, why would he need to say anything? He is already in the draft.

Unfortunately, the money’s not as big of a deal for Mintz and his family. Staying in school can be more lucrative than the G League, no question. In a sense, the decision to go pro in this climate, with the odds stacked against him, makes Mintz the modern day version of Joakim Noah. He’s doing the opposite of what everyone expects, because he can afford to.

 

[OHIORANGES]

Another plus for coming back is his room and board is paid for. Factor that with the NIL money.
But that isn't why I am writing right now. We are all waiting for Judah to say what he is going to do.
But if he is staying in the draft, why would he need to say anything? He is already in the draft.

“He is already in the draft.”
That’s my point.

 

[Ggaenzle]

judahs decision really decides if we’re gonna be the vintage cuse teams we haven’t had a in what feels like forever. Big decision for Judah this week can’t be easy. But boy if he comes back will be a fun offseason build up for szn to start which I miss a lot

 

[Orangezoo]

judahs decision really decides if we’re gonna be the vintage cuse teams we haven’t had a in what feels like forever. Big decision for Judah this week can’t be easy. But boy if he comes back will be a fun offseason build up for szn to start which I miss a lot

His decision helps that cause a lot and possibly speeds it it up. Doesn't decide it one way or another.