Miami opens -2 over SU…..

[690West]

Gonna be a dandy!

 

[rrlbees]

Makes no sense. Miami has played well and are at home. They are 11-3 and 3-0 in the ACC. I would have thought something like -6.

 

[Alsacs]

If we are plus money at tip off that is an system play on SU.
We aren’t good but Syracuse is better than Miami.

 

[hoopsupstate]

I would take Miami in a heartbeat. We won’t be able to stop them. Their defense is suspect, but our offense will tank for about five minutes and that will be enough to lose by double digits.

 

[two3zone]

I would take Miami in a heartbeat. We won’t be able to stop them. Their defense is suspect, but our offense will tank for about five minutes and that will be enough to lose by double digits.

I don’t know, Miami has a solid record but they aren’t that good. That said, wouldn’t touch it.

 

[Cuseball]

I don’t know, Miami has a solid record but they aren’t that good. That said, wouldn’t touch it.

Cuse by 8. We shoot well and expose them a bit. This doesn’t mean we are any good but more that Miami is a bit worse.


Cuse!

 

[690West]

Only climbing slightly at a couple books to -2.5

 

[AZOrange]

The over @154.5 seems right

 

[jncuse]

Opening line was very predictable.. per KP adjusted margin we are 1 to 1.5 points better than Miami on a neutral floor. Given the home edge that translates almost exactly to 2 points.

As I have said and shown many times in terms of setting opening lines Vegas seems to use a system very close to KP.

 

[Fly Rodder]

Lot of 3-pt shooters and lackluster defense on both teams. Points are going to come in bunches. I wonder if McGusty will be matched up with Buddy and Wong guarding JG3. Size for both of them.

 

[AZOrange]

Opening line was very predictable.. per KP adjusted margin we are 1 to 1.5 points better than Miami on a neutral floor. Given the home edge that translates almost exactly to 2 points.

As I have said and shown many times in terms of setting opening lines Vegas seems to use a system very close to KP.

Hey man just wondering where you get the KP analytics. Is this free or subscription? Is it just college or also pro?

 

[690West]

Opening line was very predictable.. per KP adjusted margin we are 1 to 1.5 points better than Miami on a neutral floor. Given the home edge that translates almost exactly to 2 points.

As I have said and shown many times in terms of setting opening lines Vegas seems to use a system very close to KP.

They are also very close to Sagarin predictor ratings. I’m guessing Bart torvik as well but haven’t looked.

 

[690West]

Hey man just wondering where you get the KP analytics. Is this free or subscription? Is it just college or also pro?

Kenpom is $20 a year for everything other than the front page rankings. I don’t think he does NBA

 

[jncuse]

Hey man just wondering where you get the KP analytics. Is this free or subscription? Is it just college or also pro?

I just get the free stuff from KP, basically the front page. It doesn't explicitly tell you the lines, but you can back into them very easily. I just do the calc quickly in my head. There used to be a time sme years ago that people looked for differences between Vegas lines and predicted KP line, but they are probably much less prevalent now, as Vegas seems to have moved more to a KP Based model (my guess anyway)

If you want a site that has more data for free it is Bart Torvik. But not sure how well they approximate opening lines or have value for betting.

2022 Pomeroy College Basketball Ratings

In terms of backing into the lines from the front page.
I just take the AdjEM of both teams, and take the difference, adjust pace, and add 3.5 for home.

Syracuse ADJ EM per 100 = 10.3
Miami ADJ EM per 100 = 8.4

Delta in EM is 1.9, Pace of both teams is about 70 ... so 1.9 * 70% = 1.3.
Then add the home court advantage of 3.5 ... so 1.3 - 3.5 = (2.2) for Miami.

 

[690West]

I just get the free stuff from KP. It doesn't explicitly tell you the lines, but you can back into them very easily. I just do the calc quickly in my head.

If you want a site that has more data for free it is Bart Torvik. But not sure how well they approximate opening lines.

2022 Pomeroy College Basketball Ratings

I just take the AdjEM of both teams, and take the difference, adjust pace, and add 3.5 for home.

Syracuse ADJ EM per 100 = 10.3
Miami ADJ EM per 100 = 8.4

Delta in EM is 1.9, Pace of both teams is about 70 ... so 1.9 * 70% = 1.3.
Then add the home court advantage of 3.5 ... so 1.3 - 3.5 = (2.2) for Miami.

Torvik is very close to Kenpom because he uses mostly Kenpom methodology. He says it in his FAQs

How is T-Rank different from Kenpom?​

The short answer is that T-Rank is very similar to Kenpom, which is no surprise given that T-Rank is basically an offshoot of Kenpom. But there are three main sources of difference:

GameScript and Garbage Time

The incorporation of the GameScript stat, and its omission of garbage time gives T-Rank a slightly unique aspect. Whether it's a good aspect is another question.

​

​

​

Pythags versus Efficiency Margins​

Prior to the 2017 season, Kenpom switched away from the pythagorean expectancy / log5 method, to a still very similar system that uses adjusted "efficiency margins" (EMs) instead. The main difference is that instead of being multiplicative, the new Kenpom system is additive. So the basic formula is:

Game Adj. OE = (PPP - Average PPP) - (Opponent's Adj. DE - Average PPP) + Average PPP

For our neutral court example above that would be:

(110 - 100) - (90 - 100) + 100 = 120

So, similar, but a little different. When Kenpom decided to go to adjusted EMs, I decided to stick with the Barthag, for old time's sake.

Secret Sauce​

Here are the additional adjustments I make:

• There's a recency bias—all games in the last 40 days count 100%, then degrade 1% per day until they're 80 days old, after which all games count 60%.
• An adjustment that discounts blowouts in mismatches—if the margin of victory (MOV) is more than 10 points and the difference in Barthags is above a threshold, the game starts getting discounted. If the MOV is 20 points or higher, the discount is (Higher Barthag - Lower Barthag - .5) * 2. So if a team with a Barthag of .8000 is playing a team with a Barthag of .2000, and it wins by 20 points, the game value will be 1 - (.8 - .2 -.5) * 2, or 80%
• As with Kenpom, there is also a preseason component that is phased out once a team has played 13 adjusted games (since not all games count for 100% of a game, it typically sticks around for 15 or 16 games).

Ultimately, because of these differences, the final numbers are similar but different. Notably, T-Rank has a wider "spread" between top and bottom teams, probably because Kenpom has a much more significant cap on margin of victory

 

[AZOrange]

Really helpful insight thank you!!

 

[CorduroyG]

is constantine popa still on miami?

 

[690West]

is constantine popa still on miami?

Sigh. Look at the cuse talent in this pic.

 

[AZOrange]

Hit the over at 152.5

 

[CousCuse]

Sigh. Look at the cuse talent in this pic.

View attachment 212450

The next SU head coach is in that picture.

 

[Marty McFly]

The next SU head coach is in that picture.

I mean I am all for looking outside the program, but think we can aim higher than Constantine Popa...

 

[690West]

Looks like final line is Down to -1.5 at most books.

 

[Bulldog04]

I got Boeheim playing with his nose at tip off for -400

 

[Chip]

Covered the 1.5!!

 

[djcon57]

That’s goin in bad beats