At the end of the day, my main concern for the Bucks in the postseason is:
1.Our shooters (particularly Middleton, who’s been a top 10-15 player this year) and George Hill (who I think is shooting over 50% from 3) go cold in a series.
2. The other team’s shooters get hot and there’s nothing we can do about it (ala FVV and Powell last year)
Both Toronto and Milwaukea are susceptible for that, because that is what their strategy is.
I read somewhere the other day, that the general philosophy (maybe not specific tactics) of Toronto and Milwaukee on defence are very similar.
1. Pack it in for 2 Point Defence to reduce easy looks
2. Compromise is give up more 3's than other teams.
3. Still aggressively attack the 3 point line, particularly for Toronto.
And it works... really really well for both teams.
Philosophically it makes some sense. Offences now have so many players that can take three point shots that they are going to get looks no matter what you do. So you are not compromising things to much by packing it in. You want to take away those looks near the basket that are 60%+ 2 point shots -- the really efficient twos. Also if you are forcing more threes you are creating longer rebounds which helps set up transition offence for both teams.
The end result of this strategy is that both teams really excel at two point defence (Milwaukee is in a league of its own in this regard). Toronto actually excels at the 3 point defence as well. Toronto was lauded for "ghost" defence. Toronto is always working really hard on D and has a system which runs out its defenders hard from multiple angles. Someone explained it as "ghost" defenders. Even when players are generally wide open for 3 they are still visualizing pre shot someone charging at them.
Giving up more threes than anybody else in the league is working for both teams. People think giving up more 3's than other teams must make you bad on the NBA -- actually they might be wrong.
Here are the
points allowed per 100 possessions in the NBA
1.
Milwaukee 102.0
2.
Toronto 104.7
3. Los Angeles 106.1
Median 110.5
3 point attempts allowed per game
1.
Milwaukee 38.9 (top defence)
2. Toronto 38.5 (Second best defence)
3. Miami 37.6 (Eigth best defence)
4. Clippers 35.5 (Sixth best defence)
League Average 33.8
Three point defence
1.
Toronto .335
2. Miami .340
League Average .357
19.
Milwaukee .359
This is where Toronto excels. This apparently is the ghost defence impact.
Milwaukee not so much, but see below. They will compromise more three's at a slightly above average league rate to just demolish you with their interior D.
Two point defence
1.
Milwaukee - .448
2. Clippers .495
4.
Toronto .497
League Average .521
This statistic is just ridiculously good for Milwaukee. To be that much better than the second best team in the league is something. Much of it is tactics, but a big part of it I would think is that Giannis is a defensive beast.
Probably the most dominating stat in the league While 3 point shots are still high, people don't realize 62% of shots are still two pointers across the league and the average team gives up 56 two's a game.
Milwaukee gives up 55 two's a game. So this defence basically gives them an 8 point advantage over the average team.
It's also quite positive for Toronto but nowhere near the same level as Milwaukee.
