NBA Thread 2019-20 Season | Page 62 | Syracusefan.com

NBA Thread 2019-20 Season

Which team from Toronto, Boston, Miami, Philadelphia is the best matchups for Milwaukee and which are the worst?

I see Boston as the best matchup for Milwaukee.
Philadelphia as the worst matchup for Milwaukee.

Best meaning easiest for Milwaukee to beat?

Let's say the contenders to meet them in the ECF are Boston, Toronto, Philly, and Miami.

I would tend to say Philly is the best matchup for us; Giannis generally dominates Simmons, Embiid, and Horford on the offensive end and they're probably the least likely to catch fire from 3 point range, which I think is the most likely path to us losing.

Worst matchup would probably be Toronto IMO. Their frontcourt generally gives Giannis far more issues than any of those other teams and they have guys like Lowry, FVV, Powell, etc. that can go off from 3 point range.

But again, I'm not really scared of any of them. Milwaukee has proven they're substantially better than every other team in the East; if they lose in the playoffs, it's due to a fluke IMO.
 
At the end of the day, my main concern for the Bucks in the postseason is:

1.Our shooters (particularly Middleton, who’s been a top 10-15 player this year) and George Hill (who I think is shooting over 50% from 3) go cold in a series.

2. The other team’s shooters get hot and there’s nothing we can do about it (ala FVV and Powell last year)

Both Toronto and Milwaukea are susceptible for that, because that is what their strategy is.

I read somewhere the other day, that the general philosophy (maybe not specific tactics) of Toronto and Milwaukee on defence are very similar.
1. Pack it in for 2 Point Defence to reduce easy looks
2. Compromise is give up more 3's than other teams.
3. Still aggressively attack the 3 point line, particularly for Toronto.

And it works... really really well for both teams.

Philosophically it makes some sense. Offences now have so many players that can take three point shots that they are going to get looks no matter what you do. So you are not compromising things to much by packing it in. You want to take away those looks near the basket that are 60%+ 2 point shots -- the really efficient twos. Also if you are forcing more threes you are creating longer rebounds which helps set up transition offence for both teams.

The end result of this strategy is that both teams really excel at two point defence (Milwaukee is in a league of its own in this regard). Toronto actually excels at the 3 point defence as well. Toronto was lauded for "ghost" defence. Toronto is always working really hard on D and has a system which runs out its defenders hard from multiple angles. Someone explained it as "ghost" defenders. Even when players are generally wide open for 3 they are still visualizing pre shot someone charging at them.

Giving up more threes than anybody else in the league is working for both teams. People think giving up more 3's than other teams must make you bad on the NBA -- actually they might be wrong.

Here are the points allowed per 100 possessions in the NBA
1. Milwaukee 102.0
2. Toronto 104.7
3. Los Angeles 106.1
Median 110.5

3 point attempts allowed per game
1. Milwaukee 38.9 (top defence)
2. Toronto 38.5 (Second best defence)
3. Miami 37.6 (Eigth best defence)
4. Clippers 35.5 (Sixth best defence)
League Average 33.8


Three point defence
1. Toronto .335
2. Miami .340
League Average .357
19. Milwaukee .359
This is where Toronto excels. This apparently is the ghost defence impact.
Milwaukee not so much, but see below. They will compromise more three's at a slightly above average league rate to just demolish you with their interior D.

Two point defence
1. Milwaukee - .448
2. Clippers .495
4. Toronto .497
League Average .521

This statistic is just ridiculously good for Milwaukee. To be that much better than the second best team in the league is something. Much of it is tactics, but a big part of it I would think is that Giannis is a defensive beast.

Probably the most dominating stat in the league While 3 point shots are still high, people don't realize 62% of shots are still two pointers across the league and the average team gives up 56 two's a game.

Milwaukee gives up 55 two's a game. So this defence basically gives them an 8 point advantage over the average team.

It's also quite positive for Toronto but nowhere near the same level as Milwaukee.
 
Regarding my post above, I really saw it last night. It so hard to get some of those easy baskets against Milwaukee. They just don't allow it.
 
Both Toronto and Milwaukea are susceptible for that, because that is what their strategy is.

I read somewhere the other day, that the general philosophy (maybe not specific tactics) of Toronto and Milwaukee on defence are very similar.
1. Pack it in for 2 Point Defence to reduce easy looks
2. Compromise is give up more 3's than other teams.
3. Still aggressively attack the 3 point line, particularly for Toronto.

And it works... really really well for both teams.

Philosophically it makes some sense. Offences now have so many players that can take three point shots that they are going to get looks no matter what you do. So you are not compromising things to much by packing it in. You want to take away those looks near the basket that are 60%+ 2 point shots -- the really efficient twos. Also if you are forcing more threes you are creating longer rebounds which helps set up transition offence for both teams.

The end result of this strategy is that both teams really excel at two point defence (Milwaukee is in a league of its own in this regard). Toronto actually excels at the 3 point defence as well. Toronto was lauded for "ghost" defence. Toronto is always working really hard on D and has a system which runs out its defenders hard from multiple angles. Someone explained it as "ghost" defenders. Even when players are generally wide open for 3 they are still visualizing pre shot someone charging at them.

Giving up more threes than anybody else in the league is working for both teams. People think giving up more 3's than other teams must make you bad on the NBA -- actually they might be wrong.

Here are the points allowed per 100 possessions in the NBA
1. Milwaukee 102.0
2. Toronto 104.7
3. Los Angeles 106.1
Median 110.5

3 point attempts allowed per game
1. Milwaukee 38.9 (top defence)
2. Toronto 38.5 (Second best defence)
3. Miami 37.6 (Eigth best defence)
4. Clippers 35.5 (Sixth best defence)
League Average 33.8


Three point defence
1. Toronto .335
2. Miami .340
League Average .357
19. Milwaukee .359
This is where Toronto excels. This apparently is the ghost defence impact.
Milwaukee not so much, but see below. They will compromise more three's at a slightly above average league rate to just demolish you with their interior D.

Two point defence
1. Milwaukee - .448
2. Clippers .495
4. Toronto .497
League Average .521

This statistic is just ridiculously good for Milwaukee. To be that much better than the second best team in the league is something. Much of it is tactics, but a big part of it I would think is that Giannis is a defensive beast.

Probably the most dominating stat in the league While 3 point shots are still high, people don't realize 62% of shots are still two pointers across the league and the average team gives up 56 two's a game.

Milwaukee gives up 55 two's a game. So this defence basically gives them an 8 point advantage over the average team.

It's also quite positive for Toronto but nowhere near the same level as Milwaukee.

Yeah totally agree with all of this. They mentioned it a few times on the telecast, but that defensive strategy can also result in the opponent making a quick run if you aren't careful since a hot stretch of 3 point shooting can gain so much ground, but over the long run, the strategy has clearly paid off for both teams.

And yeah, I think I had read that the top 3 defenders at the rim in the league this season are Brook Lopez, Robin Lopez, and Giannis, and obviously all 3 of them are Bucks. It's ludicrous how good they've been inside this year. Brook in particular should be the front runner for DPOY IMO even though I know he isn't/won't be.
 
The three point stuff is really interesting.

It does seem, to me, that if you allow a lot of 3 pointers, you are more exposed to the variance that entails; if you are Milwaukee (head and shoulders above everyone else in the east, and if you take their point differential at face value, everyone in the west as well) theoretically you want to limit that variance.

I really can't believe those 2 point defense # for the Bucks.

Fwiw, if you look at 3 pointers allowed per 100, as opposed to per game, the top 3 remain the same, but 4/5/6/7 are now Charlotte, New York, Golden State, and Portland, who are all bottom 8 in defense. Because so much of 3 point shooting is variance, I have always thought the best 3 point defense is to limit attempts, so I am really surprised to see the top 3 in attempts per possession rank so highly in defense.

As good as the Bucks have been so far, could they get even better in the playoffs? Giannis is going to go from 30 minutes a night to 40.
 
The three point stuff is really interesting.

It does seem, to me, that if you allow a lot of 3 pointers, you are more exposed to the variance that entails; if you are Milwaukee (head and shoulders above everyone else in the east, and if you take their point differential at face value, everyone in the west as well) theoretically you want to limit that variance.

I really can't believe those 2 point defense # for the Bucks.

Fwiw, if you look at 3 pointers allowed per 100, as opposed to per game, the top 3 remain the same, but 4/5/6/7 are now Charlotte, New York, Golden State, and Portland, who are all bottom 8 in defense. Because so much of 3 point shooting is variance, I have always thought the best 3 point defense is to limit attempts, so I am really surprised to see the top 3 in attempts per possession rank so highly in defense.

As good as the Bucks have been so far, could they get even better in the playoffs? Giannis is going to go from 30 minutes a night to 40.

If he can stay out of foul trouble maybe.

Honestly though, I don’t think the minutes will change all that much. Bud did basically the same thing last season as well. Middleton was the only starter that had a noticeable bump in minutes in the playoffs.
 
If he can stay out of foul trouble maybe.

Honestly though, I don’t think the minutes will change all that much. Bud did basically the same thing last season as well. Middleton was the only starter that had a noticeable bump in minutes in the playoffs.

Yeah I ended up checking that, originally I was gonna say Giannis was going to go to 40 plus, instead of 40. (Even throwing out the round 1 series against the Pistons, Giannis was more 36-38 it seems) Might be a mistake on Bud's part though, probably should be getting Giannis upwards of 40 in any close games in May.
 
Who is the best player from the 2017 NBA Draft?
Jayson Tatum
Donovan Mitchell
Bam Adebayo

I think all 3 will get max rookie contract extensions this offseason.

Mitchell was ahead before this year. Tatum and Adebayo made significant leaps this year.
 
Who is the best player from the 2017 NBA Draft?
Jayson Tatum
Donovan Mitchell
Bam Adebayo

I think all 3 will get max rookie contract extensions this offseason.

Mitchell was ahead before this year. Tatum and Adebayo made significant leaps this year.

Tatum at a different level right now. I saw him play in Boston a few weeks back, his game and his physical attributes are scary right now. Total package. Had a bit of a sophomore slump but has really taken two huge steps forward this year.
 
Who is the best player from the 2017 NBA Draft?
Jayson Tatum
Donovan Mitchell
Bam Adebayo

I think all 3 will get max rookie contract extensions this offseason.

Mitchell was ahead before this year. Tatum and Adebayo made significant leaps this year.

They're all locks for a max extension. I want to see Tatum keep up this recent level of play but it's probably him right now. Bam is so ridiculously impressive though.
 
I know he's only 13 games in, but Zion really looks like the real deal. I mean he doesn't turn 20 years old until the summer, and hes averaging 23 and 7, and is 13th in the league in PER. And it's not like he's just stat padding on a garbage team, the Pelicans are 8-6 with him in the lineup.
 
They're all locks for a max extension. I want to see Tatum keep up this recent level of play but it's probably him right now. Bam is so ridiculously impressive though.
Who are you top 5 players in the Eastern conference?
I was talking about this with a buddy. I think Tatum could end the year as the 2nd best player in the conference.
Obviously number 1 is Giannis

Then its in some order Siakum, Tatum, Embiid and Durant or Butler.
 
Who are you top 5 players in the Eastern conference?
I was talking about this with a buddy. I think Tatum could end the year as the 2nd best player in the conference.
Obviously number 1 is Giannis

Then its in some order Siakum, Tatum, Embiid and Durant or Butler.

This season or in general? I would argue Middleton has been better than all of those guys this year (and he was obviously better than Siakam and Tatum in prior seasons as well). Tatum is obviously on an epic tear these last 5+ games though; really depends on if this is the new norm for him or if he comes back down to earth.
 
Middleton is a good player but I don't think he is one of the top 5 players in the East. I will be interested to see if he make one of the 3 all-NBA teams.
Giannis is the best player in the conference/league so it helps him.
However I asked a subjective question so you can think Middleton is a top 5 player in the East and you wouldn't be wrong.

If Durant isn't a shell of himself next year he is probably the second best player.
Then it would IMO come from the players I put up there.
 
Middleton is a good player but I don't think he is one of the top 5 players in the East. I will be interested to see if he make one of the 3 all-NBA teams.
Giannis is the best player in the conference/league so it helps him.
However I asked a subjective question so you can think Middleton is a top 5 player in the East and you wouldn't be wrong.

If Durant isn't a shell of himself next year he is probably the second best player.
Then it would IMO come from the players I put up there.

Yeah, if Durant is healthy, I think he's pretty clearly the #2 player in the conference. I hadn't realized how barren it is in the East as far as star power goes lol. Anywho, here's a side-by-side comparison of Middleton, Tatum, Siakam, and Butler this year. Also keep in mind Middleton's numbers are significantly better when Giannis is on the bench; Middleton is averaging like 32-34 points per 36 minutes when Giannis is on the bench while maintaining his insane efficiency.


Edit: In the 6 games that Giannis has missed (so not even including the minutes in each game where their minutes are staggered), Middleton has averaged 27.3, 7.3, and 6.2 on 48/48/96 shooting splits. And per 36 minutes in those 6 games, he's at 30.6, 8.2, and 6.9 and the Bucks went 5-1 in those games. He's played at a bonafide star level this year.
 
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I know he's only 13 games in, but Zion really looks like the real deal. I mean he doesn't turn 20 years old until the summer, and hes averaging 23 and 7, and is 13th in the league in PER. And it's not like he's just stat padding on a garbage team, the Pelicans are 8-6 with him in the lineup.

He's averaging 23-7...in 28 minutes a night! It's insane. ANd they're +11 per 100 when he plays.

He's even better than I thought
 
I still can't believe there were people out there that thought he'd be a bust even if healthy.

He shot 75% on his 2 pointers last year. Like, how?!?!

The scary thing is there is a ton of stuff he can still work on. He's a little heavy. He can't really shoot. And yet...
 
I started to count my money a little too early on my JA Morant Rookie of the Year Bet.

Should be interesting to see who they go with in the end if the Grizz do make the playoffs.
 
This poor lady. This is the same courtside server who Lebron accidentally knocked over a couple months ago.

 

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