JeremyCuse
Renowned lacrosse analyst
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This is probably overstated (but not necessarily wrong). Last season, SU was undefeated. It's entire attack was from Upstate NY (depending on your definition). It's best midfielder was from Upstate NY. It's best defender, pre-injury, from Upstate NY.
I get the talent does not seem to be as deep as in the past, but there is more talent all over the place, and I think that just makes CNY seem less substantial by comparison. (I realize I moved the goalposts a little bit)
SU still has name recognition and prestige. It still has top facilities. Academics and cost are an issue relative to our peers. It creates this weird sweet spot where the ideal recruit is an upper middle class kid that didn't exactly excel in school. Brighter kids will want better academics. Less financially well off kids will need more aid (which ironically, other than public in-state, is found at the better academic schools due to endowments [JHU, Duke, Ivies]).
If I were Desko, I'd recruit the heck out of the Haudenosaunee and Canadian kids. SU has a geographic and financial edge (level for the Canadians) with these recruits. Maybe a cultural one too?
I think some of your points are spot on, especially about SU trying to find that "sweet" spot in recruiting. As you noted SU can sometimes get caught in this weird spot where a recruit is looking for slightly better academics or less tuition costs that puts SU at a disadvantage when competing against say Maryland or UNC or UVA and of course Duke.
I do think SU has been hurt a bit by the lack of higher end recruits in Upstate/Central NY. As you noted multiple starters on last years team were Central NY guys or at least NY guys (Scanlan is certainly not a CNY guy) but the overall talent level is down compared to a decade ago and to be honest I think down significantly. There is a lot of mid level type talent, for which schools like Hobart are cleaning up but 4/5 star level guys have definitely lessened. Cook was one of those guys and ditto for Hackler at Yale but CNY and the surrounding areas were producing at least 3-5 upper level guys a year and a few more just below that. Now it feels more like 1-2 and then a handful of guys who are tweeners. I mean a guy like Timboli is now 5 years removed from HS and he's still one of the more recent big time local recruits overall.
I don't disagree with recruiting Canada and more Native players but those recruitment's have become a bit more jumbled. Denver and Tierney are a much bigger factor up North plus you have schools like Cornell and the new OC at Hopkins spending a lot of time up there, there's a lot more hands in the jar. I do think SU has to do a better job there, feels like they have gone away from Canada the last few years, in my mind similar to how they strayed from LI for a few years in the last decade.
From a Native American standpoint I think SU has just become more selective. Desko got burned a few times on guys they spent a lot of time and energy on from the Res and I think shied away a bit. SU is still active their but the amount of big time D1 native players has also gone way down recently. Grades and eligibility remain a major problem. Personally I think SU does need to do a better job in Canada but also downstate NY/LI where we can sometimes struggle.