NYS: large arenas can open 10% capacity

[Eric15]

My question is, when is everyone going to come to the reality that Covid is never going to go away?

I hate to break it to you all but at some point we will have to just live with this thing. It’s a virus, it mutates, it’s next to impossible we ever fully eradicate it.

Still have to be patient. Only 4% of New Yorkers have been fully vaccinated. Things should hopefully be better by the summer.

 

[UpstateSM]

Same timing for me but different motive. I have a far bigger issue with banning tailgating outdoors where people can spread out than wearing a mask in an indoor sports venue.

I don’t disagree. Just at that point everyone who wants a vaccine could have/can get one. Anyone who doesn’t is assuming that risk on their own.

With the current trajectory of the important factors we should be allowed to watch sports in person like we used to by September. If there’s still restrictions at that point that’s where I draw my line on government intervention in my life.

 

[bpo57]

Was reading an article in Barrons this weekend (sorry unable to link - paywall) where JP Morgan's quantitative analysts estimate that the pandemic in the US will be largely over in about 70 days from now. They base this on the trajectory of new cases and a rapid acceleration of vaccines in the next two months.

 

[SUskibum]

Was reading an article in Barrons this weekend (sorry unable to link - paywall) where JP Morgan's quantitative analysts estimate that the pandemic in the US will be largely over in about 70 days from now. They base this on the trajectory of new cases and a rapid acceleration of vaccines in the next two months.

I read an analysis from another investment shop that said the same.

They used a conservative estimate of total known cases plus total unknown/untested cases plus current vaccinations plus 1.5mm new vaccinations per day.

Their estimate (per cdc) was that currently 40% of the US population has either tested positive, has contracted but not tested at all or been vaccinated

 

[JeremyCuse]

I don’t disagree. Just at that point everyone who wants a vaccine could have/can get one. Anyone who doesn’t is assuming that risk on their own.

With the current trajectory of the important factors we should be allowed to watch sports in person like we used to by September. If there’s still restrictions at that point that’s where I draw my line on government intervention in my life.

I expect that there will be a good size crowd allowed by early September, 6+ months is a long time to get a large majority (not all most likely) but a large % vaccinated. That said with this being NY and the potential mutations I still fully expect there will be ancillary requirements ie probably still a mask mandate, tailgating tightly regulated if allowed at all, cash only concessions etc etc etc. Again it will vary state by state, with the southern states likely wide open by the late summer/early fall and NY and other NE states probably halfway or 75% of the way there. I would be shocked if there wasn't still multiple rules in place by the start of football season in NY.

 

[Chris02M]

Still have to be patient. Only 4% of New Yorkers have been fully vaccinated. Things should hopefully be better by the summer.

the last 4 million or so will still not be as children are going to be last since those trials are still on going so in reality its like 6 or 7 % right now

 

[bpo57]

I read an analysis from another investment shop that said the same.

They used a conservative estimate of total known cases plus total unknown/untested cases plus current vaccinations plus 1.5mm new vaccinations per day.

Their estimate (per cdc) was that currently 40% of the US population has either tested positive, has contracted but not tested at all or been vaccinated

Yes, right or wrong, this is somewhat of a consensus view on Wall Street, i.e. it's already baked into the market in terms of security prices.