Jake and
iommi are as good as anyone on this board when it comes to recruiting.
Hop was obviously a huge blow. We essentially replaced him with AG, who to his credit did land Baze, but Hop was great on the trail.
I think kids aren't buying the aura of playing for perceived "big name programs" anymore. Duke and UK still have that lure, but does anyone else? Taking Duke and UK out of the picture, here's the schools who have a top 30 commit this year: Oregon (2), Indiana, UNC (2), Kansas (2), Maryland, LSU (3), UCLA (2), Vanderbilt (2), Wake Forest, Villanova, Florida, Mississippi State. Now we all know about Kansas, UNC and Villanova. But LSU, Vandy and Oregon having multiple top 30 guys? Mississippi State but not Michigan State? Wake Forest but not Louisville? Maryland but not Michigan? UCLA not Arizona?
When Jake mentioned the playing time, I think this backs up this theory. It appears that kids now would rather play for someone like Providence right away as opposed to being the 9th man on Kansas.
I do think there's an extra edge in the ACC since we can sell national TV, Duke/UNC, etc. But at the end of the day, if a kid thinks he's going to play 8 minutes a game at Syracuse, and he looks at Butler and sees a possibility for 25 minutes a game - I think for the most part it immediately becomes more attractive. Does he think "well I can sit for a year under JB and learn, then when I'm a sophomore I'll be bumped up to 20 minutes a game!", or does he think playing 25 minutes a game in the Big East will give him more exposure right off the bat and a better chance to develop?
If we strike out in 2019 I will be seriously worried. As of now we will most likely only have Chukwu, Sidibe, Hughes, Carey, Boeheim, HoWash and Goodine on the roster (I think Marek probably leaves; Carey may even be 50/50). That is a TON of playing time for 2s, 3s and 4s. Kids will immediately see a lot of available time and all of a sudden we become way more attractive.
I can't blame Golden, like a few have said here, Butler returns like 5ppg at his position. He looks at Syracuse and sees Brissett and Marek and knows he may only get 10 minutes a game. He's also probably seeing the type of kids were looking at for 2019 and a possibility he will get recruited over. I think for the most part these kids weigh playing time from day 1 heavily in their decision - then from there they go to fit, coaching staff, playing style, campus life, etc.