Consigliere
Co 2020 Cali Award Winner, Record Thru 5 Games
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- Aug 27, 2011
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While the popular sentiment is that next season's schedule will be much less difficult than last season's if you look at it on a game by game basis and likely outcomes I don;t see a tremendous difference.
Wagner replaces CCSU and UConn replaces CMU bot at home. We won both and should again.
Notre Dame replaces LSU and BC goes from a home game to a road game. We lost both last year and the most likely outcome at this point is that we will lose both again. Now, we CERTAINLY should not consider BC to be a likely loss. They are and will remain a peer program and with another year in the system and improved depth there is a decent chance to flip this result. But BC returns the bulk of it's lineup on both sides of the ball and the game is in Boston next year so from pure analytics the expectation is that they should be able to hold serve at home. Similarly, I don't look at Notre Dame as a sure loss but they will surely be favorite and a Cuse win would be an upset.
That leaves 8 swing games.
I expect to be queuing up the 2017 Clemson game on September 30th because I don't expect this year's version will be quite so enjoyable to watch. While we beat Pitt at home in 2017, playing them on the road should prove more difficult and this is certainly a result that may flip. So 2 potential wins that become losses.
That leaves six losses that could flip to wins. In order of likeliness:
WMU replaces MTSU. Even though this goes from a home venue to a road venue I fully expect a more positive result in 2018. Syracuse will be bigger, deeper, faster and more experienced and I will be extremely disappointed if we don't take care of business in Kalamazoo.
UNC at home replaces Miami on the road. Not a slam dunk by any means as the Heels suffered through one of the most injury riddled seasons in several years but a good likelihood that we can flip a loss to a win here.
NCSU goes from a roadie to a home game. So we've got that going for us. They should be a very tough opponent - maybe a bit weaker defensively. Combined with the venue change I think we have a puncher's chance to flip this one if not go in as the outright favorite.
Wake Forest conversely goes from a home game to a road game. Similar to Boston College but they lose Wofford and some other key pieces so I see this flip as difficult but a little more likely than BC.
That leaves FSU and Louisville. Both fall in the potential pickup column due largely to change in venue. FSU will be stronger from a personnel standpoint than they were last year with their QB back and Louisville a bit weaker with their QB gone. And I'd feel better if we were facing Louisville early before their new pieces settle in and FSU later but that's not the case.
I really think that the three game stretch with UNC and NC State at home followed by a trip to Wake will define the season. Coming off of our bye if we can get 2 of 3 there, we're a good bet to go bowling. Lose 2 of 3 and it will be an uphill battle somewhat. Sweep them and things will really start to shine.
Wagner replaces CCSU and UConn replaces CMU bot at home. We won both and should again.
Notre Dame replaces LSU and BC goes from a home game to a road game. We lost both last year and the most likely outcome at this point is that we will lose both again. Now, we CERTAINLY should not consider BC to be a likely loss. They are and will remain a peer program and with another year in the system and improved depth there is a decent chance to flip this result. But BC returns the bulk of it's lineup on both sides of the ball and the game is in Boston next year so from pure analytics the expectation is that they should be able to hold serve at home. Similarly, I don't look at Notre Dame as a sure loss but they will surely be favorite and a Cuse win would be an upset.
That leaves 8 swing games.
I expect to be queuing up the 2017 Clemson game on September 30th because I don't expect this year's version will be quite so enjoyable to watch. While we beat Pitt at home in 2017, playing them on the road should prove more difficult and this is certainly a result that may flip. So 2 potential wins that become losses.
That leaves six losses that could flip to wins. In order of likeliness:
WMU replaces MTSU. Even though this goes from a home venue to a road venue I fully expect a more positive result in 2018. Syracuse will be bigger, deeper, faster and more experienced and I will be extremely disappointed if we don't take care of business in Kalamazoo.
UNC at home replaces Miami on the road. Not a slam dunk by any means as the Heels suffered through one of the most injury riddled seasons in several years but a good likelihood that we can flip a loss to a win here.
NCSU goes from a roadie to a home game. So we've got that going for us. They should be a very tough opponent - maybe a bit weaker defensively. Combined with the venue change I think we have a puncher's chance to flip this one if not go in as the outright favorite.
Wake Forest conversely goes from a home game to a road game. Similar to Boston College but they lose Wofford and some other key pieces so I see this flip as difficult but a little more likely than BC.
That leaves FSU and Louisville. Both fall in the potential pickup column due largely to change in venue. FSU will be stronger from a personnel standpoint than they were last year with their QB back and Louisville a bit weaker with their QB gone. And I'd feel better if we were facing Louisville early before their new pieces settle in and FSU later but that's not the case.
I really think that the three game stretch with UNC and NC State at home followed by a trip to Wake will define the season. Coming off of our bye if we can get 2 of 3 there, we're a good bet to go bowling. Lose 2 of 3 and it will be an uphill battle somewhat. Sweep them and things will really start to shine.
