Scouting the Montana Grizzlies

[orangenirvana]

Not that I'm a scout, but I just watched their win over Weber State. They can definitely play. It's just difficult to know how well they'll do against our zone.

Their point guard Cherry is a four-year starter and a Big East caliber athlete. Not a great shooter but an explosive penetrator. A very fiery competitor but I think he tends to force things. I think he could struggle a bit penetrating the zone. He's a two-time Big Sky Defensive POY so he may give MCW fits.

The Big Sky POY is Jamar - a swing forward who is a strong athlete and a very good all-around player. He'll probably be the one flashing at the foul line in the middle of the zone. A very good passer for a forward, averaging over 4 assists per game and can hit it from 15 feet. But he's only 6-4 so I'm hoping Christmas and Keita can frustrate him a bit.

Their shooting guard Jordan Gregory looks like he's on the women's team and isn't much of an athlete (quick but lacks strength), but he can stroke it. Excellent form and quick release. Give him any space at all and he'll nail it. When he's on defense I'm hoping Triche will post up on him and back him down all night long.

Their two bigs are okay, nothing special. Their PF (Coleman) is a good athlete. Shoots at a high percentage from 3. Probably decent on defense, it will be interesting to see if he covers Fair or Dirty. Their Center (Hutchison) looks like he should be putting up better numbers than he does (only 2.1 rpg). He takes up a lot of space, anyway.

They have a decent bench. DeShields is their backup PG and is a lot like Cherry. Good athlete, penetrator, not much of a shooter. The best shooter on the team comes off the bench - Weisner. A lanky 6-7 lefty who doesn't look like much but shoots nearly 50% from 3. Dangerous on offense, but I think he'll be easy to score on when Syracuse has the ball.

Montana doesn't seem to play much zone, but when they do, it's bad. Really bad. They had to play a few minutes of zone against Weber State because they got into foul trouble and it wasn't pretty. We'll likely see man-to-man all night, which should be good for us. When SU has the ball, I like Triche backing down his man Gregory and getting some looks from 10 feet and in. I like the possibility of Southerland coming off screens and knocking down some threes. Fair should have a good game on offensive put backs if nothing else. Montana struggles rebounding the basketball, so we need to exploit that.

On defense, we'll probably have to cover the three point line deep all night...especially when Gregory and Weisner have the ball. I'm thinking Cherry could get the Siva treatment...let him shoot the three, preventing him from penetrating. He only shoots .284 from 3. Otherwise, expanding the zone deep will leave the middle wide open. I'm hoping Montana struggles on those mid-range shots, and we should have the advantage on the defensive boards.

Montana is a really good team, but I'm thinking this should be a decent matchup for us. Hopefully those aren't famous last words.

 

[mslamariner]

Nice breakdown. As a griz fan I couldn't have said it any better myself.

 

[orangenirvana]

Good post on the Griz board...

http://www.egriz.com/grizboard/viewtopic.php?f=2&t=61490&sid=6c45bf07787f93f135eacfc653975a24

We all know the GRIZ lack depth at PF/C. Syracuse is tall, but only 2 guys with a lot of beef. However they are always athletic and well rounded.

Team averages and rank nationally
Syracuse GRIZ
PPG- 71.3 79th 71.1 87th
PPG Allowed 60.1 32nd 65.0 131st
APG 14.5 66th 12.9 154th
TOPG 12.6 118th 12.1 72nd
STPG 8.9 20th 5.9 251st
BPG 6.2 5th 3.0 215th
FG% 44.0 132nd 47.4 23rd
FG% Defense 37.7 5th 42.7 170th
3pt% 33.4 194th 38.5 19th
3pt% Defense 29.8 20th 33.3 156th
FT% 67.5 231st 76.8 5th
Rebound Margin 4.1 57th -1.2 226th


Here is how I see it based on numbers.
The GRIZ have to move the ball around quickly for open shots. If a shot is open take it, with our better shooters. Gregory, Weisner, Jamar, Coleman have to be ready to shoot when open. Cherry is good shooter, but only when he squares up. Will Chery has to commit himself to no leaning or fading jumpers. Open looks are hard to get against this defense. Our other players need to find the holes in the zone. Even if that means Martin and Hutchison camping out almost out of bounds to look over the defense from the backside. I have the ball in the hands of Cherry and Jamar as often as possible to force their defense into making decisions. Syracuse this year and historically are always one of the best defenses in the nation. Their defensive numbers prove that is the case this season as well.


When we shoot the ball don't worry about offensive rebounding. Chances are, we are not going to win that battle. Concern ourselves with transition defense, and containing Carter Williams. I actually like our chances defensively against them in half courts sets. Pretty simple strategy here, collapse the paint and only concern ourselves with Fair and Southerland from 3 point range. Everyone crash the boards, to get every board we can defensively. When their bigs do get the ball inside, use every foul we can get. Their bigs are very weak from the FT line. I hate this strategy as a fan and coach, but their glaring weakness is shooting in all parts, FG%, 3pt% and FT (their bigs at least). Take our chances in letting them shoot from the perimeter. Collapse the paint at all costs!!!

I would also use Henderson more for perimeter defense. Carter Williams is prone to a few costly turnover by forcing the ball. We need to play the lanes well, and always have someone close to Fair and Southerland. Give CW and Triche the open 3. Hell with using Martin in straight up man. I have him shadow the paint every defensive trip he is out there. Everyone else go after the ball aggressively when their bigs get the ball, honestly do not worry about them going to the line.

Offensively, We need to play chess with Jamar. They are too big for Jamar to be utilized much in the paint to run the offense through him. Clearing out and isolation will be tough because how well they execute their match up zone. No way around it, we have to be hitting our perimeter shots often to beat them.

Keys for the GRIZ:
(1)Hit over 45% from the field, 40% from 3. We need around 8 3's, which will take about 20 3's to do it. We only do that with great ball movement. Hit every FT we get
(2) Defensive rebound- they will throw up a lot of bricks, and we need to treat those like turnovers, by limiting their efficient possessions. Nobody look to leak out for easy transition buckets. Everybody commits themselves to defensive rebounding.
(3) Make them beat us from the perimeter and FT line. Again, I don't like seeing a team be passive and giving up good looks from the perimeter, but it makes sense in this match up.
(4) We need to limit our turnovers to under 12
(5) Transition defense needs to force them into a half court game, with us collapsing as often as possible.
(6) A lot of ball fakes with shots and passes. This team is aggressive and we are a great FT shooting team. Getting CW or Fair in foul trouble would be a huge help. I would love to see anyone other than CW orchestrating their offense.

Cherry and Jamar can help their futures a lot with good showings. Those 2 are likely chomping at the bit for this opportunity. I have faith they will be ready as will the GRIZ. Weisner and or Gregory are both going to get the opportunity they welcome in this game as well. This game comes down to which teams strength is best utilized, and which weakness is most exposed. 2 very different teams on each side of the ball. This is the signature WIN the GRIZ need. A Win here can build a lot of confidence for the tournament and the future.

I will let both sides talk about who wins by what. I am not going to get into who will win or not. I prefer to let the teams decide that. I do feel if the GRIZ do focus on the keys I mentioned here, I like their chances. On the other hand, if Syracuse is hitting their shots and getting offensive rebounds, it could be a very long frustrating game for Montana. Which will prevail?

 

[Halfmooncuse]

slow game down get fouled and go to the ft line