TBT - four minute rule

[rrlbees]

I'm on the fence about it but one thing is for sure, it removes a huge advantage we have as long as jb is coach. we call it jb's slide rule, where he has a unique ability based on lead and time remaining to know when to slow the game way down. it gets scary at times but he is almost always right and we win.

 

[maxxyz]

Won't this 4 minute rule just accelerate when a team will go into foul mode? instead of with 3 minutes left teams will go into foul mode with seven minutes left. Why? Because its proven strategy that works.

I like the idea of giving the fouled team the choice to take the foul shots or keep possession. Less arguing about whether a comeback was possible.

 

[Knicks411]

Won't this 4 minute rule just accelerate when a team will go into foul mode? instead of with 3 minutes left teams will go into foul mode with seven minutes left. Why? Because its proven strategy that works.

I like the idea of giving the fouled team the choice to take the foul shots or keep possession. Less arguing about whether a comeback was possible.

How has it proven that it works? Then teams should constantly be fouling from the opening tip.

Teams foul late in games because it's essentially the only way to get the ball back when you're losing and the clock is running out on you. If the clock is no longer an issue, you don't need to foul. You can try and get stops.

The average FT% in college last year was 71.4%. So on any given trip to the line, you would expect a team to score 1.42 points per possession. The average team scored around 1.04, 1.05 points per possession last year.

I'm on the fence about it but one thing is for sure, it removes a huge advantage we have as long as jb is coach. we call it jb's slide rule, where he has a unique ability based on lead and time remaining to know when to slow the game way down. it gets scary at times but he is almost always right and we win.

Maybe we have data on this now, but isn't the more likely answer that most teams win games they are winning late? (I feel like maybe some numbers were posted at one point a while ago)

 

[Alsacs]

Won't this 4 minute rule just accelerate when a team will go into foul mode? instead of with 3 minutes left teams will go into foul mode with seven minutes left. Why? Because its proven strategy that works.

I like the idea of giving the fouled team the choice to take the foul shots or keep possession. Less arguing about whether a comeback was possible.

No because if you foul early then when the Elam ending starts your opponent will be in the bonus and any foul gives them 2 shots and closer to the 7 needed to end it.

 

[PoppyHart]

Jason Elam must be really bored in retirement.

 

[General20]

I'm on the fence about it but one thing is for sure, it removes a huge advantage we have as long as jb is coach. we call it jb's slide rule, where he has a unique ability based on lead and time remaining to know when to slow the game way down. it gets scary at times but he is almost always right and we win.

Every coach knows when to do that. When Elam came up with this ending he compiled stats on hundreds of games where teams tried to foul to get back into the game, and found it almost never works.

 

[sufandu]

What do you consider a big lead? Because wasting time and fouling occurs whenever there is a 4 point lead or more. I'll bring up the 6 OT game just because we were talking about it and the whole game is on Youtube. Nobody would call that a blowout, yet if you fast forward to the last 3 minutes or so its pretty much all fouling and wasting time. Its garbage basketball.

Did you forget the subject of your own comment? You were talking about football. I was pointing out that everything you mentioned is what teams do in football when they have a significant lead. There is nothing in football that the losing team does that is akin to the use of fouling in basketball when a team is behind. Read your own comment before you respond to mine.

 

[AccuRater]

The average FT% in college last year was 71.4%. So on any given trip to the line, you would expect a team to score 1.42 points per possession. The average team scored around 1.04, 1.05 points per possession last year.

This is true only if the team is in the double bonus, thus assured of two free throw attempts.
Otherwise, the points per possession would be 0.71 + (0.71 * 0.71) = 1.21.

 

[Tom K.]

Why is that much different than DNics shot yesterday?

Unfortunately I haven't been able to watch any games yet so I didn't see it.

 

[Tom K.]

This is exactly why I have to think that the only reason to be against the Elam Ending is fear of change. There is no legitimate criticism of it. Only silliness. ESPN does not pay the ACC by the hour. They buy the whole league as a package. There won't be any less money because overtimes get taken away.

It's not fear of change, not me at least. As I and others have said, I think there are other solutions to the fouling problem that can be tested out before doing something like removing the game clock and playing to a points total.

 

[Knicks411]

The average FT% in college last year was 71.4%. So on any given trip to the line, you would expect a team to score 1.42 points per possession. The average team scored around 1.04, 1.05 points per possession last year.

This is true only if the team is in the double bonus, thus assured of two free throw attempts.
Otherwise, the points per possession would be 0.71 + (0.71 * 0.71) = 1.21.

Yeah I figured someone would nail me on that, I didn't feel like doing the extra math. There are max 3 1 and 1's per half, and I assume the average is like 1, and if you're fouling a lot, you're probably already in the double bonus. So maybe the 1.42 becomes like 1.30 on average? Maybe that's too low, I dunno.

 

[Knicks411]

This discussion (kinda, maybe it doesn't really but go with it) brings up a strategy that I believe is used with some frequency in Europe. It makes more sense in a game with quarters instead of halves. Anyway, I believe some euro teams will foul the other team when they are holding for a last shot to get the ball back. Basically the thought is, if the other team is going to hold for a last shot, if you foul them and send them to the line for 2 FT (lets say an average 75%) foul shooter, you are giving up say 1.50 points on average, but they're going to have the last shot anyway, so if the average possession is worth roughly 1 point, you are giving them an extra .5 points in exchange for getting the ball back, and that extra possession to you should be worth more than half a point, so you win in the trade-off. Similar idea to a 2 for 1, I guess.

 

[Day2]

I agree that the Elam Ending needs to be tweaked for close games. So maybe it doesn't kick in until one team has, say, a five-point lead. Under four minutes and a five-point lead.

 

[Consigliere]

Yeah I figured someone would nail me on that, I didn't feel like doing the extra math. There are max 3 1 and 1's per half, and I assume the average is like 1, and if you're fouling a lot, you're probably already in the double bonus. So maybe the 1.42 becomes like 1.30 on average? Maybe that's too low, I dunno.

Of course that is irrelevant in the TBT (and FIBA?) since there are no 1 and 1's, right? It's all 2 shot fouls once you are in the bonus.

 

[Col. Bleep]

Does anyone know why the first dead ball with under 4 minutes remaining was chosen as the point at which the EE goes into effect?

 

[Day2]

Does anyone know why the first dead ball with under 4 minutes remaining was chosen as the point at which the EE goes into effect?

"He chose seven points because it amounts to about 1/16th of a typical team's per-game scoring output, just as three minutes amounts to 1/16th of an NBA game."

He must have used similar math to determine the four minutes for college/TBT.

 

[Eric15]

This is one of the highest quality back-and-forth board debates in recent memory.

 

[pfister1]

This is one of the highest quality back-and-forth board debates in recent memory.

Fuke yeah and it’s ok for people to hold differing opinions. Everyone believes they know the right answer, but there is no single right answer to a question like this.

 

[Dave]

 

[Capt. Tuttle]

I like having a 2nd foul limit, where it becomes 2 shots, plus the ball. Using current rule, on the 7th foul it's 1&1, on the 10th foul it's 2 shots, on the 13th foul, it's 2 shots, plus the ball. Also, enforce the intentional foul rule.

 

[Capt. Tuttle]

Won't this 4 minute rule just accelerate when a team will go into foul mode? instead of with 3 minutes left teams will go into foul mode with seven minutes left. Why? Because its proven strategy that works.

I like the idea of giving the fouled team the choice to take the foul shots or keep possession. Less arguing about whether a comeback was possible.

Wasn't the rule developed off the statistical proof that it almost never works, and therefore is a waste of time.

 

[Ragman2000]

The only thing I really do not like about the Elam ending is the loss of all potential for any kind of overtime in a basketball game. As Syracuse fans, we can attest to the fact that overtime often lends to the joys and thrills of the game experience.

One potential mod that I've thought of, is to essentially allow the opposing team one possession if they are within one score of the team that reaches the target score. if the team that was behind ties or goes ahead, an additional seven points is tacked on as a new Target score (i.e. the first overtime). If the team that was behind doesn't score or take the lead and a possession change occurs, the game is over.

I think this still achieves the original Target of the Elam Ending by eliminating the foul Fest, while also allowing for one last chance or one last shot scenarios and over times.
For example, if the target score is 60 like in our game last weekend, and we hit 60, if team fancy had 57 58 or 59 points, they would be allowed one last in bounds in possession to have a chance to tie or take the lead. if they miss the shot and we get the rebound or there is a turnover, the game is over. If they hit a basket to tie or take the lead, an additional seven points is tacked on as a new Target score.


Thoughts?

 

[Day2]

The only thing I really do not like about the Elam ending is the loss of all potential for any kind of overtime in a basketball game. As Syracuse fans, we can attest to the fact that overtime often lends to the joys and thrills of the game experience.

One potential mod that I've thought of, is to essentially allow the opposing team one possession if they are within one score of the team that reaches the target score. if the team that was behind ties or goes ahead, an additional seven points is tacked on as a new Target score (i.e. the first overtime). If the team that was behind doesn't score or take the lead and a possession change occurs, the game is over.

I think this still achieves the original Target of the Elam Ending by eliminating the foul Fest, while also allowing for one last chance or one last shot scenarios and over times.
For example, if the target score is 60 like in our game last weekend, and we hit 60, if team fancy had 57 58 or 59 points, they would be allowed one last in bounds in possession to have a chance to tie or take the lead. if they miss the shot and we get the rebound or there is a turnover, the game is over. If they hit a basket to tie or take the lead, an additional seven points is tacked on as a new Target score.


Thoughts?

 

[Ragman2000]

Thanks for your thoughtful commentary.

 

[Day2]

Thanks for your thoughtful commentary.

If you don't want people's opinions, don't ask for them.