TheCusian
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I've seen a lot of things written about Shafer's future and what it will take to either keep him or fire him. I think he deserves more time no matter what. There are a few disclaimer type things to get out of the way first:
1. No one know what Coyle will do, really. Lots of signs point towards him not making a decision this year. But the ball is in his court and he can do what he wants or thinks come December. It's not out there to think he'll want to put his stamp on the program or that he has short list of candidates.
2. W-L records are important. But context is needed when evaluating them.
3. Stats are important in evaluation, but sometimes there are things that are important that stats miss.
Here we go.
Continuation
The idea that Shafer was a continuation hire and not a "fresh start hire" is often brought up. "Shafer's taken us backwards" and "We were onto something and Shafer has not built on what Marrone accomplished" are common reasons people use to suggest firing.
I cannot argue that we've built on the success we had in 2012. We have not. But I can show that 2012 was an anomaly built on a senior QB and Hackett's system that was modified/installed in the spring of that year. With Nassib graduating with no sure thing behind him AND Marrone taking the entire offensive coaching staff (most notably, Hackett) made it impossible to continue with the record setting offense from 2012.
Shafer deserves total blame for what turned out to be a bad hire, in McDonald. The demotion combined with injuries derailed 2014. But a close look at McDonald's offense reveals that it wasn't that much worse than Hackett's in 2009-2011. Or Greg Robinson's in 2008.
Offensive S&P+ Ranking:
Robinson's O in 2008: 73
Marrone's O in 2009, 2010, 2011: 77, 107, 86
Marrone's O in 2012: 32
Shafer's O in 2013, 2014, 2015 (so far): 88, 110, 83
While Shafer was unable to continue the offensive success from 2012, the rankings show that we've just been bad at offense for a long time. For a continuation hire - he's done the job unfortunately.
Marrone deserves all the credit in the world for doing something Shafer has not: beating some really good teams. I think he needs a signature win or two this year or next to even consider keeping him past next season.
But outside of 2012, Marrone's record was built largely on the back of Shafer's defense. Marrone should and does get credit for hiring and overseeing Shafer during that time. But make no mistake - the big improvement in w-l record is defensive in nature.
Defensive S&P+ Ranking:
Robinson's D in 2008: 86
Marrone's D in 2009, 2010, 2011: 51, 42, 63
Marrone's D in 2012: 54
Shafer's D in 2013, 2014, 2015 (so far): 37, 33, 54
So if you're looking for a continuation - there it is. In fact you could say given SOS, that we've gotten better with Bullough.
Strength of Schedule
SOS is very interesting to look at when you compare the two coaches as well.
2008 Robinson: 14 (3 wins)
2009 Marrone: 24 (4 wins)
2010 Marrone: 105 (8 wins)
2011 Marrone: 45 (5 wins)
2012 Marrone: 54 (8 wins)
2013 Shafer: 46 (7 wins)
2014 Shafer: 26 (3 wins)
2015 Shafer: 93 (with all of our best opponents we've yet to play that number will fall a lot over the next month) (3 wins, so far)
What can we derive from all that? I think 2013 is being underrated a bit. 7 wins vs a tougher schedule than the very good 2012 team should be a bit more of a gold star than we give Shafer credit for. Those saying "Marrone had 8 wins his second season" need to pump the breaks a bit. They played a very advantageous schedule had a putrid offense. I think we can assume last years team could have as many as 8 wins too. And we all watched that clusterf.
The jump to the ACC is not as large as some suggest. But between that and scheduling up too much has left us with a hill to climb every year. This probably mitigates our increase in recruiting bit.
Offense/Defense/Recruiting
One of the mystifying things this year is that our offense looks and feels better than it's ranking this year. I think the playmakers we have now would have had 2012 Marrone/Hackett sticking around for few more years. It feels like the future is bright even if the stats don't bear that out. If we simply put together 2 halves of football, we'd be at 450-500 yds and 42 points.
Millhouse likes to say "imagine what some other OC could do with them" - and he makes a good point. But I cannot look past the fact that Lester went out and found a guy to run his offense and the kids a stud. Moving Phillips and Strickland to XB is a good move for them (and for Moe Neal next year). Bottom line - we're stock piling decent talent on offense and thats come from good recruiting this staff has done.
If people say "give a coach some time to see what they can do with their recruits" than this offense is exhibit A.
It's also worth noting that the 2015 run offense is committing way less penalties, takes care of the ball pretty well, and has more TD, explosive plays, and better passing efficiency than the 2014 team.
In fact this team is scoring points at the best rate than any year since the 2012 team*:
2008: 217 points
2009: 254 points
2010: 288 points
2011: 290 points
2012: 390 points
2013: 295 points
2014: 205 points
2015: 193 points in 6 games x 2 = 386 points (unlikely due to SOS)
*How many are defensive scores or OT scores? I don't know - didn't remove them from previous years. (Millhouse honorary grain of salt disclaimer)
I'm not worried about the defense at all. This year is not far off from our average. I think it's youth, honestly. And that they'll get better. This year.
Non-Football Considerations
I think this is not as important than w's, so let's get that out of the way. However, let's not just sweep it under the rug. Families are buying what Shafer and staff as authentic human beings and good people. Kids are doing pretty well in the classroom. Off field trouble has been down since his first year. Shafer seems like a high character guy. That counts for a lot with me. And I'd bet it resonates with Coyle.
Conclusion
I think given the info here and our recent history, Shafer gets another year no matter what. Could Coyle decide otherwise? Sure...
Good thing we have 6 more games vs good/great teams. Go Cuse!
1. No one know what Coyle will do, really. Lots of signs point towards him not making a decision this year. But the ball is in his court and he can do what he wants or thinks come December. It's not out there to think he'll want to put his stamp on the program or that he has short list of candidates.
2. W-L records are important. But context is needed when evaluating them.
3. Stats are important in evaluation, but sometimes there are things that are important that stats miss.
Here we go.
Continuation
The idea that Shafer was a continuation hire and not a "fresh start hire" is often brought up. "Shafer's taken us backwards" and "We were onto something and Shafer has not built on what Marrone accomplished" are common reasons people use to suggest firing.
I cannot argue that we've built on the success we had in 2012. We have not. But I can show that 2012 was an anomaly built on a senior QB and Hackett's system that was modified/installed in the spring of that year. With Nassib graduating with no sure thing behind him AND Marrone taking the entire offensive coaching staff (most notably, Hackett) made it impossible to continue with the record setting offense from 2012.
Shafer deserves total blame for what turned out to be a bad hire, in McDonald. The demotion combined with injuries derailed 2014. But a close look at McDonald's offense reveals that it wasn't that much worse than Hackett's in 2009-2011. Or Greg Robinson's in 2008.
Offensive S&P+ Ranking:
Robinson's O in 2008: 73
Marrone's O in 2009, 2010, 2011: 77, 107, 86
Marrone's O in 2012: 32
Shafer's O in 2013, 2014, 2015 (so far): 88, 110, 83
While Shafer was unable to continue the offensive success from 2012, the rankings show that we've just been bad at offense for a long time. For a continuation hire - he's done the job unfortunately.
Marrone deserves all the credit in the world for doing something Shafer has not: beating some really good teams. I think he needs a signature win or two this year or next to even consider keeping him past next season.
But outside of 2012, Marrone's record was built largely on the back of Shafer's defense. Marrone should and does get credit for hiring and overseeing Shafer during that time. But make no mistake - the big improvement in w-l record is defensive in nature.
Defensive S&P+ Ranking:
Robinson's D in 2008: 86
Marrone's D in 2009, 2010, 2011: 51, 42, 63
Marrone's D in 2012: 54
Shafer's D in 2013, 2014, 2015 (so far): 37, 33, 54
So if you're looking for a continuation - there it is. In fact you could say given SOS, that we've gotten better with Bullough.
Strength of Schedule
SOS is very interesting to look at when you compare the two coaches as well.
2008 Robinson: 14 (3 wins)
2009 Marrone: 24 (4 wins)
2010 Marrone: 105 (8 wins)
2011 Marrone: 45 (5 wins)
2012 Marrone: 54 (8 wins)
2013 Shafer: 46 (7 wins)
2014 Shafer: 26 (3 wins)
2015 Shafer: 93 (with all of our best opponents we've yet to play that number will fall a lot over the next month) (3 wins, so far)
What can we derive from all that? I think 2013 is being underrated a bit. 7 wins vs a tougher schedule than the very good 2012 team should be a bit more of a gold star than we give Shafer credit for. Those saying "Marrone had 8 wins his second season" need to pump the breaks a bit. They played a very advantageous schedule had a putrid offense. I think we can assume last years team could have as many as 8 wins too. And we all watched that clusterf.
The jump to the ACC is not as large as some suggest. But between that and scheduling up too much has left us with a hill to climb every year. This probably mitigates our increase in recruiting bit.
Offense/Defense/Recruiting
One of the mystifying things this year is that our offense looks and feels better than it's ranking this year. I think the playmakers we have now would have had 2012 Marrone/Hackett sticking around for few more years. It feels like the future is bright even if the stats don't bear that out. If we simply put together 2 halves of football, we'd be at 450-500 yds and 42 points.
Millhouse likes to say "imagine what some other OC could do with them" - and he makes a good point. But I cannot look past the fact that Lester went out and found a guy to run his offense and the kids a stud. Moving Phillips and Strickland to XB is a good move for them (and for Moe Neal next year). Bottom line - we're stock piling decent talent on offense and thats come from good recruiting this staff has done.
If people say "give a coach some time to see what they can do with their recruits" than this offense is exhibit A.
It's also worth noting that the 2015 run offense is committing way less penalties, takes care of the ball pretty well, and has more TD, explosive plays, and better passing efficiency than the 2014 team.
In fact this team is scoring points at the best rate than any year since the 2012 team*:
2008: 217 points
2009: 254 points
2010: 288 points
2011: 290 points
2012: 390 points
2013: 295 points
2014: 205 points
2015: 193 points in 6 games x 2 = 386 points (unlikely due to SOS)
*How many are defensive scores or OT scores? I don't know - didn't remove them from previous years. (Millhouse honorary grain of salt disclaimer)
I'm not worried about the defense at all. This year is not far off from our average. I think it's youth, honestly. And that they'll get better. This year.
Non-Football Considerations
I think this is not as important than w's, so let's get that out of the way. However, let's not just sweep it under the rug. Families are buying what Shafer and staff as authentic human beings and good people. Kids are doing pretty well in the classroom. Off field trouble has been down since his first year. Shafer seems like a high character guy. That counts for a lot with me. And I'd bet it resonates with Coyle.
Conclusion
I think given the info here and our recent history, Shafer gets another year no matter what. Could Coyle decide otherwise? Sure...
Good thing we have 6 more games vs good/great teams. Go Cuse!
