Tracking Syracuse vs Other Teams: Mar 1 - Mar 7 | Syracusefan.com

Tracking Syracuse vs Other Teams: Mar 1 - Mar 7

jncuse

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1551502201024.png
 

jncuse

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Note - the above seedings will not match directly to the Matrix. I base it only on the 54 new brackets that came out today so that the rankings are the most relevant and complete.


Decision Saturday

A win tomorrow against Wake could pretty much lock it up, if certain things take place.

I call tomorrow "Decision Saturday" because of the significant amount of Q1 games played by the teams closest to the line (last 10 in, first 2 out). Of the 11 games those teams play, 9 are Q1 games.

St. Mary's who has now entered the fray, can jump up quickly with a win over Gonzaga.
Utah St could possibly lock up a bid with a win over Nevada.
The same could be said for UCF by beating Houston.

Of course the opposite could happen and most of the 9 teams playing in these key Q1 games crap the bed. It's not that those games would be bad losses, but teams need do to something big to catch us if we knock off Wake. And if that does not happen, I would say we are locked if we win tomorrow.

Changes Since Last Week

Despite going 0-2 we maintained our spot on the bracket matrix, although our average seed did fall from 8.56 to 8.83. The Q1 teams you lose to do matter... Texas was about equal with us last week, they went 0-2 against 2 poorer Q1 teams, and fell to 9.90 and even were dropped off the bracket by 11% of those on the matrix.

Florida made the biggest rise ... 7th last in to 13th last in. When I started this 2 weeks ago, they were 3rd last out. But going 4-0, with a Q1 win, and 3 Q2 wins has jumped them up fairly quickly. But not all teams will do that.

New Teams


As the teams just on the outside were terrible last week, a new batch of Mid-Majors rolls on, although they are at 6%-17% support.

St. Mary's
Murray St
Toledo
Furman
UNC Greensboro.

Butler, Davidson, Georgetown and San Francisco are out.

Bubble Busters

While there is a lack of P5 conference teams that are making a run at the tourney, the bubble buster scenario is getting interesting.

Teams or conferences that are a concern, especially if the NET is relied upon.

Buffalo
Wofford
VCU
Belmont
MWC (if Nevada does not win)
Pac-12
 

UnderHisOwnPower

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Note - the above seedings will not match directly to the Matrix. I base it only on the 54 new brackets that came out today so that the rankings are the most relevant and complete.


Decision Saturday

A win tomorrow against Wake could pretty much lock it up, if certain things take place.

I call tomorrow "Decision Saturday" because of the significant amount of Q1 games played by the teams closest to the line (last 10 in, first 2 out). Of the 11 games those teams play, 9 are Q1 games.

St. Mary's who has now entered the fray, can jump up quickly with a win over Gonzaga.
Utah St could possibly lock up a bid with a win over Nevada.
The same could be said for UCF by beating Houston.

Of course the opposite could happen and most of the 9 teams playing in these key Q1 games crap the bed. It's not that those games would be bad losses, but teams need do to something big to catch us if we knock off Wake. And if that does not happen, I would say we are locked if we win tomorrow.

Changes Since Last Week

Despite going 0-2 we maintained our spot on the bracket matrix, although our average seed did fall from 8.56 to 8.83. The Q1 teams you lose to do matter... Texas was about equal with us last week, they went 0-2 against 2 poorer Q1 teams, and fell to 9.90 and even were dropped off the bracket by 11% of those on the matrix.

Florida made the biggest rise ... 7th last in to 13th last in. When I started this 2 weeks ago, they were 3rd last out. But going 4-0, with a Q1 win, and 3 Q2 wins has jumped them up fairly quickly. But not all teams will do that.

New Teams

As the teams just on the outside were terrible last week, a new batch of Mid-Majors rolls on, although they are at 6%-17% support.

St. Mary's
Murray St
Toledo
Furman
UNC Greensboro.

Butler, Davidson, Georgetown and San Francisco are out.

Bubble Busters

While there is a lack of P5 conference teams that are making a run at the tourney, the bubble buster scenario is getting interesting.

Teams or conferences that are a concern, especially if the NET is relied upon.

Buffalo
Wofford
VCU
Belmont
MWC (if Nevada does not win)
Pac-12
It’s 721 AM, and the NIT still looks good on Georgetown
 

jncuse

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I'm not quite ready to call it a clinch with the win over Wake given the huge number of Q1 games this weekend for the teams below us. If the group wins an abnormal amount of those then it could cause pressure. But I may make the call before the end of the day if those teams don't do well. Its not that any of these games would kill those teams if they lose. But it would be an opportunity loss to catch us.

So far today:
NC St lost 76-73 to Florida St
Alabama lost 74-69 to LSU

Indiana, who is now 15-14, sneaks back into the bubble picture with a win over Michigan St... but the only way they get in is by catching teams below us. They will not catch us.
 

NineOneSeven

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I'm not quite ready to call it a clinch with the win over Wake given the huge number of Q1 games this weekend for the teams below us. If the group wins an abnormal amount of those then it could cause pressure. But I may make the call before the end of the day if those teams don't do well. Its not that any of these games would kill those teams if they lose. But it would be an opportunity loss to catch us.

So far today:
NC St lost 76-73 to Florida St
Alabama lost 74-69 to LSU

Indiana, who is now 15-14, sneaks back into the bubble picture with a win over Michigan St... but the only way they get in is by catching teams below us. They will not catch us.
Great work as always, sir.
 

Maxsumm

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How is Texas that far up: they are 15-13 and under .500 in conference I know ppl are so focused on the metrics and big 12 is a good conf, but that record stinks.
 

djorange1989

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I'm not quite ready to call it a clinch with the win over Wake given the huge number of Q1 games this weekend for the teams below us. If the group wins an abnormal amount of those then it could cause pressure. But I may make the call before the end of the day if those teams don't do well. Its not that any of these games would kill those teams if they lose. But it would be an opportunity loss to catch us.

So far today:
NC St lost 76-73 to Florida St
Alabama lost 74-69 to LSU

Indiana, who is now 15-14, sneaks back into the bubble picture with a win over Michigan St... but the only way they get in is by catching teams below us. They will not catch us.

Yeah IU won’t pass us but with 2 wins over MSU and wins over Marquette, Louisville and Wisconsin (and two lame teams to pad their record this week) they are a legit contender for a bid now
 

jncuse

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How is Texas that far up: they are 15-13 and under .500 in conference I know ppl are so focused on the metrics and big 12 is a good conf, but that record stinks.

And Oklahoma as well. Oklahoma could tightly get in with a 6-12 regular season. (they are currently 6-10)
 

Knicks411

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Yeah IU won’t pass us but with 2 wins over MSU and wins over Marquette, Louisville and Wisconsin (and two lame teams to pad their record this week) they are a legit contender for a bid now

Thing is, they're probably going to be a pick em at Illinois. No lock to win that

What an unbelievable resume. They have lost 12 of their last 15, with their 3 wins being a sweep of Michigan State and a win at home against Wisconsin.
 

jncuse

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Summary of the Q1 games so far today. So far so good, tracking at 1-5 for the games that have ended or started.

Ohio St was destroyed at Purdue (L)
TCU is getting crushed by Texas Tech at home by 22 in the first half (L - Calling it Early)
Texas won easily over Iowa St (W)
NC St lost at Florida ST (L)
UCF down 8 in the first half at Houston (L?)
Alabama loss a close one vs LSU (L)

They were tough games individually, but as a group they need to do well to cause some fear in Syracuse.

Let's see what happens with the upcoming 4 games later today

Seton Hall at Georgetown
Clemson at UNC
St Mary's vs Gonzaga
Utah St vs Nevada
 

Sherman20

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How is Texas that far up: they are 15-13 and under .500 in conference I know ppl are so focused on the metrics and big 12 is a good conf, but that record stinks.
THE Big 12 plays a home and home round robin schedule so if all the teams in a conference are decent, you can pick up that high amount of losses. Texas is pretty good team with decent efficiency numbers, despite their 13 losses.
 

jncuse

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THE Big 12 plays a home and home round robin schedule so if all the teams in a conference are decent, you can pick up that high amount of losses. Texas is pretty good team with decent efficiency numbers, despite their 13 losses.

Its basically impossible to get a bad loss in that conference, as long as you take care of West Virginia and Oklahoma St at home. With the new quadrants you can even lose at those sub 100 schools on the road (as long as they are top 130) and its not considered a bad loss.
 

NineOneSeven

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Its basically impossible to get a bad loss in that conference, as long as you take care of West Virginia and Oklahoma St at home. With the new quadrants you can even lose at those sub 100 schools on the road (as long as they are top 130) and its not considered a bad loss.
I want to know why cincinnati isn’t in the big 12
 

jncuse

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Recall Coming.

UCF has come back and is up with 10 minutes to go at #8 Houston. That quality of road win, would lock a bid for UCF.
 

CuseBBall

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Clemson winning could actually help us get another Q1 win. Right now Clemson is 41 in the NET.
If the win this game they will likely move up to around 35/36. Then if they beat ND they might move up to 33ish.
Then they play us. If we beat them we get a Q1 road win since they are top 75.
If the beat us they would prob move up to around 30 and turn our home game win vs them into a Q1 win.
 

jncuse

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Clemson winning could actually help us get another Q1 win. Right now Clemson is 41 in the NET.
If the win this game they will likely move up to around 35/36. Then if they beat ND they might move up to 33ish.
Then they play us. If we beat them we get a Q1 road win since they are top 75.
If the beat us they would prob move up to around 30 and turn our home game win vs them into a Q1 win.

It could help... but it would us less then a win would help them. I'll take the UNC win if they can pull it out.
 

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