Tyler Lydon - NBA Prospect

[Fly Rodder]

That's just a platitude. Better idea is to be as prepared and skilled as possible. You sound like a charter school with these experiments (cross threads).

There is absolutely zero evidence that staying four years makes any prospect a better professional player. There are a handful of guys who stayed and played themselves into a higher draft position - and of those some are due to injuries. There are a lot more that eventually play themselves for whatever reason - including injuries. The best players in the NBA are those with the talent already. Basketball is not baseball. Almost zero MLB players could go from HS (or even college) to the show without at least a season in the minors.

 

[Bayside44]

There is absolutely zero evidence that staying four years makes any prospect a better professional player. There are a handful of guys who stayed and played themselves into a higher draft position - and of those some are due to injuries. There are a lot more that eventually play themselves for whatever reason - including injuries. The best players in the NBA are those with the talent already. Basketball is not baseball. Almost zero MLB players could go from HS (or even college) to the show without at least a season in the minors.

There is massive evidence of guys unprepared getting discarded. Hoops has a small rotation, might as well be ready.That UVa kid from last season (Brogdon) graduated a smart and mature player at guard and putting up minutes with the Bucks, seems to be in a better spot than Mali.

 

[Fly Rodder]

There is massive evidence of guys unprepared getting discarded. Hoops has a small rotation, might as well be ready.That UVa kid from last season (Brogdon) graduated a smart and mature player at guard and putting up minutes with the Bucks, seems to be in a better spot than Mali.

That's not what I'm saying and that's certainly not the argument. 99% of those guys never had it to begin with. In baseball, good prospects in the minors rarely have mind-blowing numbers at any particular level, yet they get promoted because teams want to A) push their development and B)avoid wasting cheap productive years in the minors. If a guy is outperforming his peers, then generally he's been at that level too long.

Basketball isn't a sport where training and training and training makes someone into a good professional player. There are exceptions, sure maybe like Brogdan, but the guy hasn't even played a full season yet - so don't go anointing him the next MVP just yet. Buddy Hield stayed and played himself into a lotto pick and Brogdan is outplaying him, too. Denzel Valentine stayed four years and was a steady mature player with a lot of the same attributes as Brogdan. A high IQ play maker lacking in elite physical skills. He was drafted 14th and is struggling to get minutes.

Outside of the top-5 or so picks, the draft is all about getting the best value for the draft position and gambling on upside. So why would a team who thinks Lydon, for example, could be a top-10 talent with another year of seasoning not pick him with the 20th pick this year?

 

[Knicks411]

I'm not sure I can find the study now, but kevin Pelton did one a few years ago, i forget all the details, but the idea was it seemed like guys improved more in the nba than in college. Will try and find

Pelton: NBA develops players better

story is for insiders only. Hopefully it's cool if I post this excerpt

Although we can't run an experiment on how things would be different with a higher age limit, there is a group of relevant prospects we can use as a point of comparison: players who chose to return to school for their sophomore seasons. Specifically, I looked at players from the past five drafts who were in Chad Ford's top 30 the summer before their sophomore year and ultimately were drafted in the first round. Not all of these players would have been first-round picks had they turned pro as freshmen, but many of them -- notably Jared Sullinger, Harrison Barnes and Cody Zeller -- passed up the chance to go in the lottery.

As a control group, I used players who actually were one-and-done from the equivalent recruiting classes, covering the 2008-12 drafts. This group is somewhat more talented -- it includes four of the five No. 1 picks -- but the sophomores are strong in their own right. Of the 14 sophomores who qualify, 12 went in the lottery, and James Harden and Paul George are now All-NBA contributors.

We're not interested in the overall performance of these groups anyway. Instead, we want to focus on how they developed year to year. That's where my NCAA-to-NBA translations come in handy. They allow us to put college and NBA performance on the same scale (using player win percentage, the per-minute component of my WARP rating that is equivalent to PER).

That shows something remarkable. On average, the sophomores who returned performed only marginally better than they did as freshmen.

Sophomore development (player win pct.)
Amazingly, of the 14 sophomores who qualify (which requires playing at least 500 minutes all three seasons, a criterion that knocks out Blake Griffin, among others), nine rated worse as sophomores than freshmen. That includes basically all the high-profile freshmen who passed on the draft and saw their stock fall.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

There is massive evidence of guys unprepared getting discarded. Hoops has a small rotation, might as well be ready.That UVa kid from last season (Brogdon) graduated a smart and mature player at guard and putting up minutes with the Bucks, seems to be in a better spot than Mali.

I just can't help myself.

There is massive evidence of guys that are prepared getting discarded. It's a churn.

Re: Brogdon vs Malachi, Malachi makes 500-600k more per year than Brogdon this season and each of the next two according to Hoops Hype. As for the situations, both guys were drafted into their situations. They didn't get to choose. Malachi staying wouldn't change that teams choose to pick him or not.

 

[Madbiker]

If you get drafted in the first round you take the guaranteed money. But if you fall to the 2nd round guys rarely make that money differential up. Example. Ennis this year is making $1.7M, Jerami Grant $980k. You don't leave early to be a 2nd rounder if you can be a 1st rounder the next year. So you better be damned sure you get taken in 1st round before you bolt.

 

[Oráiste]

Body of an NBA 3, skillset of a college 5: He's a marginal NBA player at best, but he might as well go because at his age his stock is more likely to slip than improve.

He'll get drafted, probably in the first round, but I doubt he'll get a 2nd contract. I have doubts he'll even get all the options on his first contract.

 

[realorange]

I believe JB feels if you are likely to be no more than 12-15 in the draft you should think about going.

 

[Cusefan0307]

Body of an NBA 3, skillset of a college 5: He's a marginal NBA player at best, but he might as well go because at his age his stock is more likely to slip than improve.

He'll get drafted, probably in the first round, but I doubt he'll get a 2nd contract. I have doubts he'll even get all the options on his first contract.

How many NBA 3's are 6'9-6'10''????

 

[Tom K.]

Frank Howard took more shots than Lydon against Pitt.
That's a problem.

I really dislike when Lydon gets the ball at the 3-point line with an open look and just pump fakes.
Dude shoots the 3 at 43%. Let it fly!
I know I'm not the one out there but he appears to have enough space to get it off. Plus he's able to shoot over a lot of defenders.

 

[two3zone]

There is massive evidence of guys unprepared getting discarded. Hoops has a small rotation, might as well be ready.That UVa kid from last season (Brogdon) graduated a smart and mature player at guard and putting up minutes with the Bucks, seems to be in a better spot than Mali.

And 3 less paychecks.

 

[721Comstock]

Frank Howard took more shots than Lydon against Pitt.
That's a problem.

I really dislike when Lydon gets the ball at the 3-point line with an open look and just pump fakes. :bang:
Dude shoots the 3 at 43%. Let it fly!
I know I'm not the one out there but he appears to have enough space to get it off. Plus he's able to shoot over ANY defenders.

FIFY. His completely unnecessary pump fakes take away his open look at a 3, and trade it for a drive and/or pull-up J, which he's still not nearly as good at as hitting stationary 3's.

And seriously - the kid is 6'10" with long arms - who exactly does he think is blocking one of his attempts from 3? The Greek Freak? :noidea:

Unless and until he actually gets a 3 blocked, he should shoot them like nobody is there.
All he does is give them more time to closeout on him.
Has anybody ever actually fallen for one of his fakes anyway?

 

[Oráiste]

How many NBA 3's are 6'9-6'10''????

Durant, Antetokounmpo, George, Parsons, Gallinari. It's a long list. College fans typically fail to realize the big step up in both size and skills between even power conference NCAA basketball and the NBA.

And Lydon is not 6-10.

 

[TinyManInside]

How many NBA 3's are 6'9-6'10''????

Average height of an NBA SF is 6'8".

Personally I think if he can get drafted in the first round he should go this year. I could see him in the NBA for awhile as a bench player specializing in 3 point shooting at the PF position, but I don't think he has the size/physical skills to be effective enough at PF to get starters minutes.

 

[TinyManInside]

Durant, Antetokounmpo, George, Parsons, Gallinari. It's a long list. College fans typically fail to realize the big step up in both size and skills between even power conference NCAA basketball and the NBA.

And Lydon is not 6-10.

exactly

 

[OrangeFoo]

Frank Howard took more shots than Lydon against Pitt.
That's a problem.

I really dislike when Lydon gets the ball at the 3-point line with an open look and just pump fakes.
Dude shoots the 3 at 43%. Let it fly!
I know I'm not the one out there but he appears to have enough space to get it off. Plus he's able to shoot over a lot of defenders.

I wonder if his shot is too slow and he thinks he's going to get blocked. He seems to only shoot it if he is WIDE open.

 

[two3zone]

FIFY. His completely unnecessary pump fakes take away his open look at a 3, and trade it for a drive and/or pull-up J, which he's still not nearly as good at as hitting stationary 3's.

This is as frustrating to me as it is when DC puts the ball on the floor.

 

[orangefog]

There is massive evidence of guys unprepared getting discarded. Hoops has a small rotation, might as well be ready.That UVa kid from last season (Brogdon) graduated a smart and mature player at guard and putting up minutes with the Bucks, seems to be in a better spot than Mali.

True, in his case it may have cost him draft position but he should be in the league a long time.

 

[Tom K.]

Has anybody ever actually fallen for one of his fakes anyway?

None come to mind.

As for Lydon going pro:
Over the years I've really changed my attitude on players going pro; re: ready or not.
For starters, there seems to be some assumption that a player WILL benefit from another year of college.
The only benefit is going to be a higher draft position and initial contract. Okay that's fine and all, but everyone knows it's contract #2 that gets you paid and another year of college won't help you get contract #2. NOT ONE BIT. I firmly believe this.
A player will develop faster playing in the NBA than playing in college. Denying this is ludicrous.
But here is the rub: some players have it, some players don't. Just like anything else. I'm confident in saying that if a player fizzles out in the NBA, more college wasn't going to help. Are they bad players? No, they are still terrific and as everyone knows, many end up overseas. But the NBA is for the ultra-elite. There is just so much talent in the world and at every level, the talent gets better. I myself got weeded out after elementary school .
Does anyone remember when Brian Scalabrine (noted NBA benchwarmer and punchline) challenged anyone to come and face him 1-on-1? People sent in audition tapes. 4 opponents were hand picked and he beat them by a combined score of 44-6. Fun fact: one of those opponents was Matt Tomaszewski.

Now I'm just rambling, that's enough.

 

[Fly Rodder]

... And Lydon is not 6-10.

I'm not going to get all riled up about it, but his measurements at the Nike Elite camp in 2014 when he was 18 were 6' 9.5" in shoes, USA basketball the same year he was 6' 8.75" without shoes. Everyone said that Malachi wasn't 6' 6" until he was measure at the NBA combine at 6' 6.25" with shoes. And in shoes is what they go by (I think without shoes is more accurate). I don't think that it is a stretch that Lydon gained a 1/2" from 18 to 20. And they all round up. So if you're comparing Lydon to a 6'11 Brice Johnson, know that he's really 6' 10.5" in shoes.

 

[Cusefan0307]

Durant, Antetokounmpo, George, Parsons, Gallinari. It's a long list. College fans typically fail to realize the big step up in both size and skills between even power conference NCAA basketball and the NBA.

And Lydon is not 6-10.

He was measured at 6'9.5" at NBA camp 2 summers ago. The average height of power forwards at the NBA Combine last year wasn't even 6'7''.

 

[Tom K.]

I'm not going to get all riled up about it, but his measurements at the Nike Elite camp in 2014 when he was 18 were 6' 9.5" in shoes, USA basketball the same year he was 6' 8.75" without shoes. Everyone said that Malachi wasn't 6' 6" until he was measure at the NBA combine at 6' 6.25" with shoes. And in shoes is what they go by (I think without shoes is more accurate). I don't think that it is a stretch that Lydon gained a 1/2" from 18 to 20. And they all round up. So if you're comparing Lydon to a 6'11 Brice Johnson, know that he's really 6' 10.5" in shoes.

I always wondered why they measure in shoes. Yeah obviously you play in shoes. But it's not like the soles of sneakers are standardized (are they????). One could presumably wear a thicker bottom sneaker lol.

 

[Fly Rodder]

In any event, wingspan and vert is more important than an inch or so of height in either direction, IMO.

 

[Melancer46]

Durant, Antetokounmpo, George, Parsons, Gallinari. It's a long list. College fans typically fail to realize the big step up in both size and skills between even power conference NCAA basketball and the NBA.

And Lydon is not 6-10.

He was measured at 6'10" in shoes like 4 years ago. I highly doubt he has shrunk since then.

At any rate, Lydon will be a PF in the NBA, and he won't be an undersized one either.

Edit: It would appear that had I continued reading the thread, this post was entirely unnecessary.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

He was measured at 6'10" in shoes like 4 years ago. I highly doubt he has shrunk since then.

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