Well this certainly changes things

[pearl31]

Did they drop the last 10 games criteria?

Yes, I believe they did.

 

[OrlandoCuse]

you don't go from a borderline 3-4 seed to a 1 seed by winning at home against a team you were favored over. Committee takes entire season into account when seeding

You act like the seedings actually shift every week based on Lunardi. "Bracketology" has distorted everyone's perception of how the bracket actually gets selected. There are no seeded teams right now, there are only media projections. If UVA wins out they will be 29-5, winners of 20 of their last 21, ACC regular season champs and ACC tourney champs. I don't know how that's not the resume of a 1 seed.

I base this on how they are playing right now. Looked like the best team in the country to me today. They could easily win 4 more games to fulfill that scenario.

 

[jncuse]

No they are not. If they keep winning maybe

Top 25
Wisconsin 5-2
Duke 4-4

Wisconsin Wins - Florida, Virginia, Michigan, Michigan St, St Louis
Duke Wins - Syracuse, Virginia, Michigan, UCLA

Advantage - Wisconsin
Duke Wins - Syracuse, Virginia,



Top 50
Wisconsin 8-3
Duke 5-4

Advantage - Wisconsin

So-So Losses (Sub 50)
Wisconsin (Indiana, Northwestern)
Duke (Clemson, Notre Dame)

Adv to Duke

SOS - Wisconsin 2, Duke 7... so great for both schools (no advantage)

Overall, due to the Top 50 Record, Wisconsin in my view is ahead. They are also ahead of Duke on the Bracket Matrix as well.

 

[Chris02M]

As of the current standings they would only get a matchup vs Cuse/UNC/Duke in the title game. If they beat us twice it will definitely be interesting.



That's absolutely ridiculous.

Wonder how much they would consider Grant's injury since they factor that into the criteria? Too bad the 20 point loss made it worse then it really was.

there lined up to play unc in semis

 

[llandz]

Let's not forget the other things the selection committee will look at. Such as injuries but where a player returns and can play in the tournament, but the team lost during said injury. Also I think this plays into JBs tantrum last week for the Duke game. It could be perceived by the committee that we lost that game because our coach blew his cool, and that the loss to Duke not count as much against us. Or because our coach lost his cool for the first time in 38 years that maybe there was some questionable officiating in that game. There are definitely some intangibles that enter into the equation when 2 teams are close. We may have some of those weigh in our favor.
Most important though, whether one or two is the Buffalo and MSG. Home court advantage and very little travel and fatigue from travel. If we need to be a two to be there then that is still preferable.
AND even more important is we need a healthy Jerami and a little more offensive production going forward.

 

[Madbiker]

he must think Oklahoma state is better than Virginia even though in the long run it would make no difference being 1 or 2 as long as we are in the east

Highly unlikely SU will be in MSG as a #2. If UVa or Duke wins the ACCT they will be in the East. UVa as a #2, Duke as a #1... and Cuse will be shipped out.

 

[jncuse]

I can see UVA getting a #1 seed if they win out.

I think they will have a hard time having enough happen to allow them to get a #1.

But they are definitely a threat to #2 at MSG if they win out.

 

[Chris02M]

duke should be below Wisconsin based on BOW

 

[OrlandoCuse]

I think they will have a hard time having enough happen to allow them to get a #1.

But they are definitely a threat to #2 at MSG if they win out.

Why? If UVA can't get a 1 seed by winning out then how can we?

 

[Chris02M]

Highly unlikely SU will be in MSG as a #2. If UVa or Duke wins the ACCT they will be in the East. UVa as a #2, Duke as a #1... and Cuse will be shipped out.

I still think duke is more the threat for NYC as I see Virginia in south if they are a 2

 

[jncuse]

my up to second updated top 12 on my list.

Florida
Arizona
Wichita St
Syracuse
Kansas
Wisconsin
Villanova
Virginia
Duke
Creighton
Michigan
San Diego St

Sounds about right. I would probably put Arizona as the overall #1 due to extra OOC wins. (3 on that list). Neither can really accomplish much in conference.

BTW, I noted in another one of your posts, that you said Wichita St was a definitive #1, so I will add my comments here.

I still have no clue what committee will do with Wichita St. We can all make guesses but we have no precedent to make any conclusive judgment. They fail the metrics that are traditionally used. but that 0 will be hard to overlook.

On one hand, some on committee may argue that Kansas could get the #1 seed if they win out with 7 losses based on their tremendous schedule and sheer number of top 50 wins... but if they want to argue that Kansas is #1 because of that, they then have to ignore that when they discuss Wichita.

There are certain things I defend on Wichita. Some people think they are awful, or that 15 teams could be undefeated with that schedule. I think we can use data to prove that is false. So I will defend that position vigorously

But, based on traditional measures, you simply can't defend Wichita St as a #1. I can try to defend they are as good other, but I can't defend the resume.

At this point, I predict the committee to give them a #1, but I have started to veer from 100% expectation to something much less definitive. I would not be stunned to see a #2 come out on SS.

 

[Chris02M]

ok googled it Charlottesville Virginia to NYC= 341 miles, Charlottesville Virginia to Memphis =367 miles so it makes no difference

 

[llandz]

I think Duke gets shipped before we do as a #2. But we all still have regular season games to play, and the ACC tournament. So we can speculated all we want, but a week from now things may look different. I don't always think conference tournaments change things a lot, but lets see what happens this week.

 

[Chris02M]

Arizona would be number 1 on my s curve if they didn't lose a player for the season that was major contributor. I could see Wichita placed at 2 seed especially if both us and Kansas make conference final in conference tournament

 

[jncuse]

I'm still shocked people continue to downgrade UVA because of the way they played in Nov and Dec. It's like going 16-1 in the ACC doesn't matter at all. I really don't see 4 teams better than UVA right now. Totally deserving of a 1 seed. If they win out they will be a one seed without any doubt.

I don't think its downgrading

its what the committee has said for the past 5 years or so now, when they got rid of the last 10.. A game in Febuary/March is worth the same as a game in November.

But they keep moving up.

 

[OrlandoCuse]

I don't think its downgrading

its what the committee has said for the past 5 years or so now, when they got rid of the last 10.. A game in Febuary/March is worth the same as a game in November.

But they keep moving up.

They got rid of the "last ten" but they still try to identify how well a team is playing as of the start of the tourney. Playing great at the end of the year can offset (or almost eliminate) poor performances early in the year. Same goes for laying eggs late in the year. It's all about determining the best teams at on Selection Sunday and seeding them after all the cards are in. That's why you will see teams move up or down based upon their conference tourney results.

 

[jncuse]

Why? If UVA can't get a 1 seed by winning out then how can we?

Good question, I had to sit back and think of it a bit.

We are ahead of Virginia right now on body of work.

If we fall to the point where its a toss up between us it probably means we are on the 2 line.

I am expecting one of Kansas/Wisconsin to win out and possibly knock both off as well. We can compete resume wise with those schools if we win out, but I don't think Virginia can.

 

[HarrisonJBounel]

polls mean nothing in regards to seeding as seen by Louisville ranked in top 10 but are projected 5 seed

Meh. Louisville is an exception because they had a high preseason ranking (3rd - with 14 1st place votes), and have managed to keep winning for the most part after having lost Ware and Behanan. The bracketologists are looking more at the future expectations than the past results, so they punish Louisville.

If JG doesn't return effectively, we may be in a similar situation, with a better ranking than seeding.

In other words, barring extraordinary circumstances, polls mean a great deal as a predictor of seedings. The committee may not look at them, and shouldn't, but all else being equal, they are usually quite close.

 

[jncuse]

I think Duke gets shipped before we do as a #2. But we all still have regular season games to play, and the ACC tournament. So we can speculated all we want, but a week from now things may look different. I don't always think conference tournaments change things a lot, but lets see what happens this week.

We are ahead of Duke and Virginia now.

But I think its a toss up with them both if they win the ACC title, and we end up with 4 losses.

Personally I am cheering for two teams at the ACC Tourney - Syracuse and UNC. UNC can solve many of our problems by knocking those teams off in Greensboro.

 

[jncuse]

Arizona would be number 1 on my s curve if they didn't lose a player for the season that was major contributor. I could see Wichita placed at 2 seed especially if both us and Kansas make conference final in conference tournament

Fair point. But based on last 3 games, Arizona seems to have found themselves without Ashley. Won by 27 at Colorado, 28 vs Cal. I guess they have the rest of the season to prove yes or no.

 

[pearl31]

UNC can solve many of our problems by knocking those teams off in Greensboro.

And next Saturday night in Durham, too.

 

[jncuse]

They got rid of the "last ten" but they still try to identify how well a team is playing as of the start of the tourney. Playing great at the end of the year can offset (or almost eliminate) poor performances early in the year. Same goes for laying eggs late in the year. It's all about determining the best teams at on Selection Sunday and seeding them after all the cards are in. That's why you will see teams move up or down based upon their conference tourney results.

Teams move up and down based on conference tourney results because teams are adding quality wins to their resume -- not because they are giving extra emphasis to the conference tournament. The tournament may give 2 more top 25 or top 50 wins to the champ, while another team could get 0 such wins. Its not the title changing the seeds, its the 2 wins vs 0 wins.




And current committee should not say they are looking for the teams that are playing best as of now. That was the old model, and I don't remember them emphasizing that in recent years..

 

[domestu]

People are really fooling themselves with some of these seed projections for Virginia. The Cavaliers have the #1 BPI since January 1 and they may have passed us in the power index after Saturday game. If they finish with only one loss in league play and win the ACC Tournament, I think they are very likely to get a 1 seed for the Big Dance. I believe that would trump those early season losses in the minds of the Selection Committee.

It would definitely elevate their resume above Duke and Syracuse who would have at least 5 and 4 losses against ACC opponents after the league tourney.

It impossible to predict what is going to happen between now and Selection Sunday but a lot of people here are underestimating Virginia. Their strength of schedule ranked ahead of Syracuse's before today's game and they have been beating league opponents a lot more impressively than the Cuse has.

 

[OrlandoCuse]

People are really fooling themselves with some of these seed projections for Virginia. The Cavaliers have the #1 BPI since January 1 and they may have passed us in the power index after Saturday game. If they finish with only one loss in league play and win the ACC Tournament, I think they are very likely to get a 1 seed for the Big Dance. I believe that would trump those early season losses in the minds of the Selection Committee.

It would definitely elevate their resume above Duke and Syracuse who would have at least 5 and 4 losses against ACC opponents after the league tourney.

It impossible to predict what is going to happen between now and Selection Sunday but a lot of people here are underestimating Virginia. Their strength of schedule ranked ahead of Syracuse's before today's game and they have been beating league opponents a lot more impressively than the Cuse has.

But, but, but Lunardi had them as a 4 seed last week....(sarc)

 

[jvbj01]

Thank you oklahoma st

It sure would be nice to have beaten Duke in that game the meant nothing. : )