were better with howard in

[Ghost]

All I can find is Box Plus Minus. Not easy to find this stat. And to the people that think I'm pushing some agenda, I'm not. Every statistic you can possibly pull shows him to be a below average player at this point, and the worst out of the 7 guys we play. He's actually a better defensive player than offensive player at this point. He's a point guard and turns the ball over 34% of the time he tries to make a play in ACC play. Gbinije is at 17% comparatively.

The stats are difficult to analyze (for me) when comparing a starter to a player utilized the way Howard is (I would guess - but I may be missing something...).

Let's take G, Mal, Cooney and every time they make a mistake each half, pull their stats for the rest of the half. And then see what their respective numbers show.

For example, last game, second half begins, Howard comes in, has 1.5 possessions, he loses possession of the ball and fouls. His stats go to hell. Someone else does the same thing - they play 18 more minutes. Howard's numbers are almost always going to be shot because of the utilization.

You can argue that maybe Howard's stats would actually get worse (fair), or better (equally fair), but that's the eye test. Otherwise, he's almost always outside the ebb and flow. I get that his 100 possessions are equal to everyone's elses 100 possessions by true numbers, but I think they're harder to evaluate because of how he's utilized. He's essentially starting each half/game coming off a damaging stat (turnover, missed shot, etc...) for the purposes they're being used to judge him here.

It's like using a pinch hitters batting average and saying that's what he would hit for the season. Sure everyone's average is based off the same formula, but pinch hitting ain't quite the same as stepping into the box 4 times a game.

 

[rrlbees]

I'll try to study harder next time. We weren't great defensively all around last night. Luckily they missed a lot of open shots.

It's been noted a couple times even on the broadcast that we packed it in even more. You didn't see any guard extend to far. We got what we wanted and it worked like it usually does.

 

[patcuse]

The stats are difficult to analyze (for me) when comparing a starter to a player utilized the way Howard is (I would guess - but I may be missing something...).

Let's take G, Mal, Cooney and every time they make a mistake each half, pull their stats for the rest of the half. And then see what their respective numbers show.

For example, last game, second half begins, Howard comes in, has 1.5 possessions, he loses possession of the ball and fouls. His stats go to hell. Someone else does the same thing - they play 18 more minutes. Howard's numbers are almost always going to be shot because of the utilization.

You can argue that maybe Howard's stats would actually get worse (fair), or better (equally fair), but that's the eye test. Otherwise, he's almost always outside the ebb and flow. I get that his 100 possessions are equal to everyone's elses 100 possessions by true numbers, but I think they're harder to evaluate because of how he's utilized. He's essentially starting each half/game coming off a damaging stat (turnover, missed shot, etc...) for the purposes they're being used to judge him here.

It's like using a pinch hitters batting average and saying that's what he would hit for the season. Sure everyone's average is based off the same formula, but pinch hitting ain't quite the same as stepping into the box 4 times a game.[/QUOTE. A+ answer. Well said.

 

[Cusefan0307]

The stats are difficult to analyze (for me) when comparing a starter to a player utilized the way Howard is (I would guess - but I may be missing something...).

Let's take G, Mal, Cooney and every time they make a mistake each half, pull their stats for the rest of the half. And then see what their respective numbers show.

For example, last game, second half begins, Howard comes in, has 1.5 possessions, he loses possession of the ball and fouls. His stats go to hell. Someone else does the same thing - they play 18 more minutes. Howard's numbers are almost always going to be shot because of the utilization.

You can argue that maybe Howard's stats would actually get worse (fair), or better (equally fair), but that's the eye test. Otherwise, he's almost always outside the ebb and flow. I get that his 100 possessions are equal to everyone's elses 100 possessions by true numbers, but I think they're harder to evaluate because of how he's utilized. He's essentially starting each half/game coming off a damaging stat (turnover, missed shot, etc...) for the purposes they're being used to judge him here.

It's like using a pinch hitters batting average and saying that's what he would hit for the season. Sure everyone's average is based off the same formula, but pinch hitting ain't quite the same as stepping into the box 4 times a game.

Fair enough, but DC doesn't exactly see the lions share of minutes either and his stats aren't that much different from the other 5 guys.

 

[Ghost]

Fair enough, but DC doesn't exactly see the lions share of minutes either and his stats aren't that much different from the other 5 guys.

Yeah, I understand. I don't think DC is being pulled based on individual errors though. At least not in the way Frank is. Which is fine, JB has decided what his role is - I just don't know that the stat is a 100% accurate indicator of production (and again, feel free to argue his production would dip...anything could happen with extended run).

Although I will say, I don't think for one second that teams will stop guarding him as some have said if he plays a few more minutes per game. I mean, how often do you see that in college? Unless you're an ELITE level, NBA lottery-pick type penetrator that can't shoot AT ALL - they're guarding you. They just are.

 

[Ghost]

It's not nearly as big as you indicate. And regarding giving up open 3s, Cooney does that with regularity. He gave up a ton last night, UNC just missed them.

Cooney seems a tad like Derek Jeter. The positioning is good, but he's slow afoot.

 

[Cusefan0307]

Yeah, I understand. I don't think DC is being pulled based on individual errors though. At least not in the way Frank is. Which is fine, JB has decided what his role is - I just don't know that the stat is a 100% accurate indicator of production (and again, feel free to argue his production would dip...anything could happen with extended run).

Although I will say, I don't think for one second that teams will stop guarding him as some have said if he plays a few more minutes per game. I mean, how often do you see that in college? Unless you're an ELITE level, NBA lottery-pick type penetrator that can't shoot AT ALL - they're guarding you. They just are.

I'm not trying to argue that Howard isn't going to be a good player, because he will be in my opinion, but this isn't like 2012 when we had MCW as productive fourth guard in limited minutes. Howard is not as good as MCW was as a reserve that year.

Howard has played 10 less minutes than MCW did that year and MCW out produced him in every metric possible. FWIW MCW produced 114 points per 100 possessions that year in ten less minutes, and he got pulled after every error as well. The difference was. Triche/Dion/Scoop produced more per minute than Malachi or Cooney does this year. Our overall guards were better that year. This year they aren't.

I agree that he has great passing ability, but right now his errors are outweigh what he is bringing to the team.

 

[Ghost]

I'm not trying to argue that Howard isn't going to be a good player, because he will be in my opinion, but this isn't like 2012 when we had MCW as productive fourth guard in limited minutes. Howard is not as good as MCW was as a reserve that year.

Howard has played 10 less minutes than MCW did that year and MCW out produced him in every metric possible. FWIW MCW produced 114 points per 100 possessions that year in ten less minutes, and he got pulled after every error as well. The difference was. Triche/Dion/Scoop produced more per minute than Malachi or Cooney does this year. Our overall guards were better that year. This year they aren't.

I agree that he has great passing ability, but right now his errors are outweigh what he is bringing to the team.

Yeah, I'm not trying to argue he's MCW - just that I'm not sure that metric can properly evaluate a player utilized the way Howard is by JB.

FWIW, MCW got plenty of run against very bad teams (most of big minutes were accumulated versus cupcakes), very little run against good teams. For Howard it's been sort of the opposite.

 

[Madbiker]

Howard needs to show major improvement in his outside shot and his FT shooting You just can't have a PG play major minutes who is no threat to score, doesn't have to be guarded, and can't have the ball in his hands late in a close game because he's a 50% free throw shooter.

 

[Cheriehoop]

It's not nearly as big as you indicate. And regarding giving up open 3s, Cooney does that with regularity. He gave up a ton last night, UNC just missed them.

JB was shutting down the inside game, playing the odds on UNC's historically poor stats from the 3. Our defense was doing what they were told and which players to concentrate on. They did an excellent job in the 1st half stopping penetration and not allowing UNC to exploit their big inside advantage. UNC uncharacteristically hit some threes making 6 of 17 (only 35%) but we were only down 4 regardless.

Love Frank Howard and am happy he isn't being thrown into the fray like Kaaleb Joseph was. That said, if you want to talk facts , he subbed in the first half at 9:56 score was 18-18; he subbed out at 3:34 with the score 26-33 UNC and the half-time score was 34-38 UNC. In the second half he entered at 14:36 score 39-50 UNC and was subbed out with the score 47-58 UNC. Final score 70-75. He did a good job, he gave the starters a rest, ran the offense , has JB's increasing confidence that he can spell players plus give him increasing valuable experience while not losing too much as a result,giving our offense a different look. Why people have the need to pit players in an imaginary war against other players is short sighted, unproductive - they are a "team" each with a defined role.

 

[Ghost]

Howard needs to show major improvement in his outside shot and his FT shooting You just can't have a PG play major minutes who is no threat to score, doesn't have to be guarded, and can't have the ball in his hands late in a close game because he's a 50% free throw shooter.

Who are all these players (guards) with poor shots that aren't being guarded? I watch a lot of basketball, I'm just not seeing all of these poor outside shooters in D1 that are running around unguarded in games.

He's shooting 50% from inside the arc in the last month, hopefully they start guarding him less - we have guys that aren't hitting near that from inside the arc.

 

[br801]

Who are all these players (guards) with poor shots that aren't being guarded? I watch a lot of basketball, I'm just not seeing all of these poor outside shooters in D1 that are running around unguarded in games.

He's shooting 50% from inside the arc in the last month, hopefully they start guarding him less - we have guys that aren't hitting near that from inside the arc.

Your post a little earlier about how it's difficult to get a read on Howard's metrics because of they way he is being used this season was excellent. But here you're cherry-picking a stat based on a very small sample (Howard's recent shooting percent inside the arc) to make a point. I think it's probably best to say that based on the way he is being used this season and the relatively small sample we have to go on, Howard is a very promising work-in-progress but what his overall game will look like next season is still uncertain. Personally, I think he will develop into a nice offensive threat.

 

[SU2NASA]

Cooney wasn't awful last night, but he wasn't great either.

3/11 isn't awful?

 

[Ghost]

Your post a little earlier about how it's difficult to get a read on Howard's metrics because of they way he is being used this season was excellent. But here you're cherry-picking a stat based on a very small sample (Howard's recent shooting percent inside the arc) to make a point. I think it's probably best to say that based on the way he is being used this season and the relatively small sample we have to go on, Howard is a very promising work-in-progress but what his overall game will look like next season is still uncertain. Personally, I think he will develop into a nice offensive threat.

100% right. Oh, I do know that - I just was trying to get around to saying/making it clear how premature it seems to draw anything about his offense, or to express concerns about whether teams will guard him. The stat was maybe an awkward throw-in.

He looks decent enough on drives that I wouldn't think going unguarded, even at this stage, is a huge concern. Obviously, to add to your point, he's pretty much only shooting at the rim (two runners that I recall, 1-2 on those), whereas most guys are throwing up some shots with far higher degrees of difficulty even within the arc.

 

[Madbiker]

Who are all these players (guards) with poor shots that aren't being guarded? I watch a lot of basketball, I'm just not seeing all of these poor outside shooters in D1 that are running around unguarded in games.

He's shooting 50% from inside the arc in the last month, hopefully they start guarding him less - we have guys that aren't hitting near that from inside the arc.

Come on all his FG's are lay ups. He's made like 1 shot beyond 3 feet.

 

[Ghost]

Come on all his FG's are lay ups. He's made like 1 shot beyond 3 feet.

Uh, good point I guess... I already conceded that one post above. I also think we're pretty far from being able to project much about his shot as a frosh playing limited minutes.
Did people stop guarding Edelin? I'm still struggling to come up with players that teams stop guarding...

 

[patcuse]

Uh, good point I guess... I already conceded that one post above. I also think we're pretty far from being able to project much about his shot as a frosh playing limited minutes.
Did people stop guarding Edelin? I'm still struggling to come up with players that teams stop guarding...

Stop guarding means playing off them to defend the drive because they are not going to pull up and shoot a jumper.

 

[Ghost]

Stop guarding means playing off them to defend the drive because they are not going to pull up and shoot a jumper.

Right. I think people are vastly overestimating this tactic and it being rolled out. Teams are guarding him now and he has a literal red light. The coach has announced that multiple times publicly. I watch St Johns, M2M teams guard them, and none of those kids can shoot,etc,etc,etc..you might see the guard hedge more aggressively on post feeds, but that isn't much of our offense anyway.

 

[PhatOrange]

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/syracuse/2016.html

Howard is contributing 78 points per 100 possessions during ACC play. That's the worst of the 7 guys we play.

There are a lot of holes that can be poked in that metric like; who's on the court, how many shots were taken and missed, turnovers, score, momentum, flow, etc not to mention the old fashioned eye ball test.

Thanks though, I didn't know that Cooney had the highest points allowed metric over 100 possessions. I'm being brainwashed to believe he plays great defense. Guess not so much. His defensive metric is the WORST of the 7.

 

[Cusefan0307]

There are a lot of holes that can be poked in that metric like; who's on the court, how many shots were taken and missed, turnovers, etc not to mention the old fashioned eye ball test.

Thanks though, I didn't know that Cooney had the highest points allowed metric over 100 possessions. I'm being led to believe he plays GREAT defense. Guess not so much.

I really don't think there are a lot of holes. Go back and look at MCW's stats from 11-12. He was light years better than Howard.
People don't like to believe stats when it doesn't back up their opinion.

 

[jr4750]

There are a lot of holes that can be poked in that metric like; who's on the court, how many shots were taken and missed, turnovers, etc not to mention the old fashioned eye ball test.

Thanks though, I didn't know that Cooney had the highest points allowed metric over 100 possessions. I'm being led to believe he plays GREAT defense. Guess not so much.

Really hear this a lot. Very interesting to see it's not true. Not to mention the fact that TC looks slower out there again, after a full year of playing 37 mpg and getting beat up. Like clockwork he struggles later in the season as a result. Year 3 of this happening. JB insists he needs to be out there, but NO DOUBT it hurts us when he can no longer be as effective. Quite frustrating.

 

[PhatOrange]

I really don't think there are a lot of holes. Go back and look at MCW's stats from 11-12. He was light years better than Howard.
People don't like to believe stats when it doesn't back up their opinion.

If GBinje has 6 of his 7 turnovers with Howard on the court that counts against Howard. If Lydon or GBinje rain 3's when Cooney is on the court that counts against Howard. It's sort of a dumb metric.

In those same 100 possessions Cooney is shooting .323% (the 2nd worst) while jacking up 19.9 attempts (the 2nd most).

Cooney is also behind Howard in rebounds, assists, steels, blocks and remember defense. He only edges Howard in turnovers.

 

[realorange]

Gee. JB has been so wrong this year. It's obvious by these metrics that Frank should have been starting all year! Cooney shouldn't be getting more than 10 minutes per game.

 

[PhatOrange]

Gee. JB has been so wrong this year. It's obvious by these metrics that Frank should have been starting all year! Cooney shouldn't be getting more than 10 minutes per game.

A little dramatic. But the point of the thread (and my stance), is that right now the offense appears to run better with Howard on the court. It doesn't mean that Cooney has to be on the bench, it means that Howard should be on the court playing PG.

 

[Forloveoforange]

Really hear this a lot. Very interesting to see it's not true. Not to mention the fact that TC looks slower out there again, after a full year of playing 37 mpg and getting beat up. Like clockwork he struggles later in the season as a result. Year 3 of this happening. JB insists he needs to be out there, but NO DOUBT it hurts us when he can no longer be as effective. Quite frustrating.

Of course Cooney is also known to work the hardest off the court. So maybe he's overtraining off the court, too.