Why Connecticut Will Win | Syracusefan.com

Why Connecticut Will Win

SWC75

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- We are always assume we know more than the national experts and odds-makers. “They don’t know what we know… We’re closer to the team and know more about them.” But those experts favored Louisville by 16 and South Florida by 15. They were wrong- they both beat us by more than that. We look at this as one of those games we should win- and therefore must win, now that things are going badly. But those experts favor Connecticut by 3 points. Will they again be wrong- but in the other direction? Or could they know more than we do?

- “Connecticut stinks!” But they won 6 games last year and went to a bowl and are 2-1 this year. This is another rebuilding program that started earlier than we did and are farther along: Bob Diaco was 2-10 his first year. Like South Florida, they turned it around last year. We won 4 games last year and stayed home and are 1-2, (with blow-out losses to the only two FBS teams), so who is it again that stinks? We look down on Connecticut because of our glorious history – Joe Alexander, Vic Hanson, Wilmeth Sidat-Sigh, Jim Ringo, the 44’s, John Mackey, Larry Csonka, Art Monk, Joe Morris, Tim Green, Don McPherson, Marvin Graves, Donovan McNabb, Dwight Freeney. None of those guys every played the Huskies. The Huskies were playing small college football until 2000. Since we started playing them in 2004, they’ve beaten us 6 times in 9 games. Like South Florida, they are both a reality and a symbol of our program’s decline. They helped cause it by taking recruits against us and bronzed it by whipping our butts with regularity. We hate losing to these guys because each loss reminds us of that we aren’t what we used to be. And they could do it again.

- This will be a game of totally contrasting team, each trying to make it their type of game. We want to speed things up, get off an avalanche of plays that will enable us to gain lots of yards and score a lot even if we don’t have a large average gain. UConn wants to slow things down and eat up the clock. Their play-by-play man said in an interview this morning that they don’t try to rush the passer on defense- they want to limit you to short gains at best and force you to use a lot of plays to get down the field, assuming that you will make enough mistakes to beat yourself and won’t have an efficient 10-12 play drive to score. I remember when Randy Edsall beat Greg Robinson 30-7 by doing exactly that: we were able to get plays off more easily than we had all year but there were no big gains and we had a penalty, a bobble or a turnover to stop drive after drive. It’s also what happened last week when we gained 549 yards but were thwarted by 3 turnovers, 3 failed fourth down conversions and 10 penalties, virtually all of which occurred in the last three quarters when we were out-scored 3-45. As to pace, we’ve seen it for years in basketball. One team, (Syracuse) wants to get out and run but the other team wants to slow it down. Normally the team that slows the game down gets the kind of game they want.

- Our biggest problem has come in the running game: doing it and stopping it. Using my “winning plays” method of analyzing a game, we are 52-71 on offensive runs and 79-73 on passes. We are we are 39-61 on defensive running plays and, believe it or not, 63-35 on passing plays. Connecticut does very little passing, so our advantage there may be muted. They will want to grind us up with their running game. They may not run 50 yards untouched for scores but they will be satisfied to just keep getting first downs while we are helpless to stop them. WE are determined to establish the run and did pretty well in that first quarter against USF but have bene stuffed otherwise. And Connecticut is well equipped to stuff us again with 325 pound Mikal Myers, 310 pound Foley Fatukasi and 291 pound Sean Mariman waiting for us in the middle of the line. Passing the ball is fun but if you can’t run and can’t stop the run, you are unlikely to win.

- We were a painfully thin team in many key positons to begin with but the injuries that have piled up have made things even worse. Antwan Cordy and Juwan Dowels are out for the season. Wayne Morgan, Devon Clarke and George Morris are out indefinitely. Jamal Custis and Omari Palmer are questionable. Not mentioned in the injury report was Kayton Samuels, whom we all saw helped off the field vs. USF. Dino Babers, on his show, said “There are a lot of guys on the edge. Some guys with experience and can handle the pain will still play.”

- Houston, a team that runs a spread like we do, (or want to someday), has lost one game in their last 18: to Connecticut. Let’s have a look: Houston vs. Connecticut - Game Recap - November 21, 2015 - ESPN
Houston came in averaging 521 yards and 43.5 points and got 318 and 17 vs. Connecticut. They lost their quarterback during the game but so did Connecticut. Houston was 0-4 on turnovers and had 7 penalties. Sound familiar? Here is SI’s description of that game: “UCONN dealt Houston it’s only loss last year by playing smashmouth football. That’s the game plan to beat the Cougars. They didn’t have quarterback Greg Ward Jr. for most of the game, which didn’t help, but UCONN still limited their possessions and pushed them around.” If they can do it Houston, why can’t they do it to us.

- The Huskies can come back, despite their snail-like offense. Navy was up 21-0 and had to make a goal line stand to win 28-24, (with the help of a clock management blooper by Diaco). We could get off to a big lead and relax land lose focus like we did against USF and still have what would be a devastating loss.

- If it’s a close game you normally favor the home team, the team that has the better placekicker, (Cole Murphy is good but Bobby Puyol was 16 for 18 last year, and is 4-4 this year with two game winners0, and the team with the most experience in close games, (all of theirs, none of ours).

- I still remember 2005. Like so many SU fans, I’d drunk the Kool-aid that Greg Robinson, with his Super Bowl rings, was going to halt our decline and create a new era of success. We lost a close opener to a West Virginia team that would got 11-1 that year. , blew out Buffalo 31-0, Lost on a last play field goal to a 25th ranked Virginia team and lost on the road to Florida State 14-38, which is not a horrible result for a visiting team in Tallahassee. The next game was a trip to Connecticut, a D1A wannabe who we’d beaten 42-30 in our first confrontation the year before. I figured we’d win easily to but the breaks on any skid and take off from there. I flew out to Hawaii that weekend to visit my brother and mother who had moved there after my father’s death. I got in as the game was in the third quarter. it was on TV, (a Friday night game) and we down 0-19. It was raining in East Hartford. Dave had been watching and said “They don’t look very good. “ The Huskies soon scored again to make it 0-26. They had a shot of Robinson on the SU sideline, looking wet and glum. We scored in the fourth to make it 7-26. But that was it. The yardage gap wasn’t too bad: 273-342 but we were 0-3 in turnovers and just looked like the inferior team. It was the first time I began to wonder if Greg Robinson was the right guy. We wound up 1-10 with that Buffalo win the only one we had all year. Now we have a new coach we’re excited about. We beat Colgate to start the year, then got blown out by a powerful Louisville team and pretty darn good South Florida team. We are 1-2 but traveling to Connecticut. The coach just said that he doesn’t expect to be favored in any of the remaining games. Déjà vu?
 
The fact that your "why we will win" are so much shorter than "why we will lose" makes me sad. :(


Of course that could mean that I'm trying harder.

Actually there were 9 bullet points for Connecticut and 10 for Syracuse. The UConn ones are just more long-winded.
 
Yukon has a pretty athletic defense and a crap offense with a QB that can run. I think their defense could give us problems and our defense has been terrible. I have 0 confidence that this will be our first win in CT.
 
Yukon has a pretty athletic defense and a crap offense with a QB that can run. I think their defense could give us problems and our defense has been terrible. I have 0 confidence that this will be our first win in CT.

And you're an orange homer!
 
It would be great to see continued improvement throughout the year. That's my expectation. If that doesn't happen it is time for concern.

Beating UConn, while nice, really won't do much for the fan base. We still view them as an inferior opponent. Crazy. After the last ten years this might be the first year I see our program for where it really is at. Can't see a win or loss this weekend changing that.
 

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