Why Syracuse will be better than last year's Final Four team

[Cusefaninvirginia]

Here's the case. A lot of people are expecting Syracuse to drop off a little bit because we lost our best 3 pt shooter and our entire starting backcourt, including a lottery pick. But if you compare those losses to what we are bringing in and bringing back, there's good reason to think SU will be better - at least on paper.

Losing Southerland hurts, but in terms of overall talent, which would you rather have: a senior Southerland and freshman Jerami Grant, or a sophomore Grant and freshmen Tyler Roberson and BJ Johnson? There's a real chance that Grant's improvement might come close enough by itself to making up for the loss of Southerland, but when you add the depth that our 2 four star recruits bring in, I think we're clearly improved.

Triche was one of my favorites, but never thrived in the 2 guard spot. Replacing him with Mike Gbinije is a little bit of a crap shoot, but I think it's safe to say Gbinije will at least be able to come close to putting up Triche's numbers. Given that Triche's shooting numbers were down last year, the bar at least as an offensive scoring guard is not set too high. And I don't think we'll be losing too much defensively given that MG is a little taller and longer than Triche and has a reputation as a solid defender. Plus he's been practicing with the team all last year learning the system. So who would you rather have, a senior Triche and freshman Cooney or a sophomore Gbinije, a sophomore Cooney, and a freshman Patterson? I'm tempted to say this is a wash. We're losing Triche's big game experience, but the overall talent level favors next year's team.

MCW is obviously the big loss. But we do have a five star PG in Ennis coming in who is generally considered "college-ready" by most scouting folks. So who would you rather have, a sophomore MCW or a freshman Ennis? Obviously MCW, especially on defense. But as a pure PG, I don't think we're losing too much. MCW turned the ball over a little bit and once opposing teams picked up on Temple's strategy of playing off of MCW, close off passing lanes and force MCW to shoot the ball, MCW's efficiency went down quite a bit. And if nothing else Ennis should be the better scorer. So we'll be down at PG from last year, but not quite as much as a lot of people are assuming.

The last comparison to make is with the returning guys not yet mentioned, who'll all by definition be a year more experienced. This could be a very big factor - Fair, Christmas, Keita and DaJuan Coleman will all be a year better, which could be especially big for Coleman if he's able to make a big sophomore jump. And Fair has improved a little bit each year. No reason to expect anything different next year.

So where does that leave us? The shooting guard spot is close to a wash. We're down a bit at PG. But we're up at both Forward spots and at Center. Not to mention we are much, much deeper this year. On paper, I think this means that overall we project to be a little bit improved over last year's Final Four squad. The main concern this leaves me with is how much will the loss in intangibles (experience and leadership in the backcourt) hurt us. But if Ennis and at least one of our three SG's develop quickly and can play with a level head in tight game situations, we will be a better team and have a good chance to win the ACC and get to the championship game.

 

[OGBJ20]

Here's the case. A lot of people are expecting Syracuse to drop off a little bit because we lost our best 3 pt shooter and our entire starting backcourt, including a lottery pick. But if you compare those losses to what we are bringing in and bringing back, there's good reason to think SU will be better - at least on paper.

Losing Southerland hurts, but in terms of overall talent, which would you rather have: a senior Southerland and freshman Jerami Grant, or a sophomore Grant and freshmen Tyler Roberson and BJ Johnson? There's a real chance that Grant's improvement might come close enough by itself to making up for the loss of Southerland, but when you add the depth that our 2 four star recruits bring in, I think we're clearly improved.

Triche was one of my favorites, but never thrived in the 2 guard spot. Replacing him with Mike Gbinije is a little bit of a crap shoot, but I think it's safe to say Gbinije will at least be able to come close to putting up Triche's numbers. Given that Triche's shooting numbers were down last year, the bar at least as an offensive scoring guard is not set too high. And I don't think we'll be losing too much defensively given that MG is a little taller and longer than Triche and has a reputation as a solid defender. Plus he's been practicing with the team all last year learning the system. So who would you rather have, a senior Triche and freshman Cooney or a sophomore Gbinije, a sophomore Cooney, and a freshman Patterson? I'm tempted to say this is a wash. We're losing Triche's big game experience, but the overall talent level favors next year's team.

MCW is obviously the big loss. But we do have a five star PG in Ennis coming in who is generally considered "college-ready" by most scouting folks. So who would you rather have, a sophomore MCW or a freshman Ennis? Obviously MCW, especially on defense. But as a pure PG, I don't think we're losing too much. MCW turned the ball over a little bit and once opposing teams picked up on Temple's strategy of playing off of MCW, close off passing lanes and force MCW to shoot the ball, MCW's efficiency went down quite a bit. And if nothing else Ennis should be the better scorer. So we'll be down at PG from last year, but not quite as much as a lot of people are assuming.

The last comparison to make is with the returning guys not yet mentioned, who'll all by definition be a year more experienced. This could be a very big factor - Fair, Christmas, Keita and DaJuan Coleman will all be a year better, which could be especially big for Coleman if he's able to make a big sophomore jump. And Fair has improved a little bit each year. No reason to expect anything different next year.

So where does that leave us? The shooting guard spot is close to a wash. We're down a bit at PG. But we're up at both Forward spots and at Center. Not to mention we are much, much deeper this year. On paper, I think this means that overall we project to be a little bit improved over last year's Final Four squad. The main concern this leaves me with is how much will the loss in intangibles (experience and leadership in the backcourt) hurt us. But if Ennis and at least one of our three SG's develop quickly and can play with a level head in tight game situations, we will be a better team and have a good chance to win the ACC and get to the championship game.

Don't forget that the coaches have BJ playing 2-3 and not strictly 3 with the ability to handle the ball in some cases.

 

[armory]

I think this year's team will be as good as Tyler Ennis handles the point as a frosh. We need him to do more than bring the ball up the court, he is going to have to orchestrate the team... as a freshman.

Plenty of talent, low on experience/confidence.

 

[jekelish]

I think at this point the only thing I'm not confident in with this team is depth at PG and three point shooting. Granted, those are two pretty big things, but if we can at least solve the shooting we should be very, very good next year. If we had landed Antonio Barton, I would have put us against anyone in the country to be quite honest.

 

[Lawrinson14]

I like the optimism. But I have my doubts.

We are going from a lottery pick to unproven freshman at PG.

Who is going to be a consistent scorer outside of CJ? Saying anyone at this point is sheer conjecture.

Defensively, the top of the zone will have a lot to live up to with the loss of 6-6 MCW and 6-4 Brandon Triche. I don't see Ennis and Cooney being as stout defensively. And sorry OGBJ, but I have my doubts about 6-7 BJ playing the top of the zone. I HOPE HE PROVES ME WRONG

 

[OttoMets]

I think this year's team will be as good as Tyler Ennis handles the point as a frosh. We need him to do more than bring the ball up the court, he is going to have to orchestrate the team... as a freshman.

Plenty of talent, low on experience/confidence.

Right. How good we are is simply a question of how well Ennis plays (and, of course, how healthy the team is). With lower highs and higher lows than his predecessor, we're going to be very good.

Though the three-point shooting is a concern for the fourth consecutive year. But that's bound to improve - it can't get any worse.

 

[jekelish]

I like the optimism. But I have my doubts.

We are going from a lottery pick to unproven freshman at PG.

Who is going to be a consistent scorer outside of CJ? Saying anyone at this point is sheer conjecture.

Defensively, the top of the zone will have a lot to live up to with the loss of 6-6 MCW and 6-4 Brandon Triche. I don't see Ennis and Cooney being as stout defensively. And sorry OGBJ, but I have my doubts about 6-7 BJ playing the top of the zone. I HOPE HE PROVES ME WRONG

You're forgetting silent G. If what I expect to happen happens, the top of our zone will feature a 6-3 Ennis and a 6-6/6-7 Gbinije, so we really aren't losing any size at the top. It's just a matter of whether they can be as disruptive defensively, and whether Gbinije can pick up the slack scoring.

I like Cooney and think he'll be a fine player, but I can't imagine we brought in a 6-6 2-guard transfer from Duke to sit on the bench.

 

[Cusefaninvirginia]

I agree about the 3 point shooting. It's a concern, but it's not like it was a strength last year. It's not going to be any worse this year, and if anything, it could be a reason why next year's team could be a little improved.

 

[AirForceOrange]

I don't think there will be a team in the ACC, an maybe even in the country, that will be able to match us for overall depth. Yes, lack of depth at PG is a concern...but not a major one in my opinion. The bigger concern is potential lack of shooting from outside the arc...we have the shooters, just need them to be consistent and confident. Not worried about the defense, JB will have that part of the game locked down. I think the trip to Canada will help greatly and comes at a perfect time for Syracuse. I believe this team will contend for the ACC and will be in the NCAA Tourney. Lack of experience and leadership would have been concern for some young teams like this...but I don't think it will be an issue for this team. Sometimes lack of experience is good...

 

[Lawrinson14]

You're forgetting silent G. If what I expect to happen happens, the top of our zone will feature a 6-3 Ennis and a 6-6/6-7 Gbinije, so we really aren't losing any size at the top. It's just a matter of whether they can be as disruptive defensively, and whether Gbinije can pick up the slack scoring.

I like Cooney and think he'll be a fine player, but I can't imagine we brought in a 6-6 2-guard transfer from Duke to sit on the bench.

Guilty. Good call. I always forget about him.

 

[jekelish]

Regarding the lack of PG depth, one thing that people need to remember is that we won't be playing a Louisville type team this year that harasses you as aggressively for 94 feet as they do. We'll face pressure, sure, but nothing like that. Therefore I don't think point guard depth is AS essential. Remember, in 96 we really only had Z Sims, and the only time we were really exposed for our lack of depth at the PG spot was when we played Kentucky and Z got hurt and had to sit out for, I believe, seven possessions and we turned it over on six of those. Plus, this team has guys like Cooney, Silent G, and others who can handle the ball better than any of our alternatives on that year's team.

A solid backup PG would be fantastic, but it's not as make or break as people think unless Ennis gets hurt for an extended period.

 

[OGBJ20]

I like the optimism. But I have my doubts.

We are going from a lottery pick to unproven freshman at PG.

Who is going to be a consistent scorer outside of CJ? Saying anyone at this point is sheer conjecture.

Defensively, the top of the zone will have a lot to live up to with the loss of 6-6 MCW and 6-4 Brandon Triche. I don't see Ennis and Cooney being as stout defensively. And sorry OGBJ, but I have my doubts about 6-7 BJ playing the top of the zone. I HOPE HE PROVES ME WRONG

You must have not seen BJ play and the fact that he has the quickness and length to play out top and the wing as stated by the SU coaching staff. You must have forgotten that until JS got suspended he played at the top of the zone and BJ is much more quicker and athletic then JS. So doubt on.

 

[Lawrinson14]

You must have not seen BJ play and the fact that he has the quickness and length to play out top and the wing as stated by the SU coaching staff. You must have forgotten that until JS got suspended he played at the top of the zone and BJ is much more quicker and athletic then JS. So doubt on.

Trust me. I hope you're right. But it isn't everyday that you see a 6-7 SG in the collegiate game.

Holy hell. Could you image Gbinije at the point and BJ at the 2? 6-6 and 6-7 backcourt. That's just about as big as most teams forwards. Excuse me while i pick my jaw up off the floor.

 

[AirForceOrange]

You must have not seen BJ play and the fact that he has the quickness and length to play out top and the wing as stated by the SU coaching staff. You must have forgotten that until JS got suspended he played at the top of the zone and BJ is much more quicker and athletic then JS. So doubt on.

I agree with this for the most part...please don't take offense OG, typically in the past freshman have issues with the zone...not their fault, just typically not used to playing it, especially the way JB plays it...not saying BJ will fall in this category, I am talking generally, and not specifically about BJ, that there tends to be learning curve with the Syracuse zone...which is why you typically see much improvement from players defensively from fresh to soph...Also comes down to how much effort the player (again generally speaking) puts into practicing and playing defense...

 

[AirForceOrange]

Regarding the lack of PG depth, one thing that people need to remember is that we won't be playing a Louisville type team this year that harasses you as aggressively for 94 feet as they do. We'll face pressure, sure, but nothing like that. Therefore I don't think point guard depth is AS essential. Remember, in 96 we really only had Z Sims, and the only time we were really exposed for our lack of depth at the PG spot was when we played Kentucky and Z got hurt and had to sit out for, I believe, seven possessions and we turned it over on six of those. Plus, this team has guys like Cooney, Silent G, and others who can handle the ball better than any of our alternatives on that year's team.

A solid backup PG would be fantastic, but it's not as make or break as people think unless Ennis gets hurt for an extended period.

Also, I think the new rule about defensive players putting arms on the offensive player/hand checking will have a big impact...

 

[jekelish]

Just curious, what has BJ gotten his weight up to?

At this point, I think the major hurdle for him to get playing time next year is obviously adding strength. He's a shooter, and shooting is an absolute premium in college basketball, so if he can handle the jump from high school to college in terms of physicality I don't see much reason for him not to get some minutes other than simply being stuck behind Gbinije, Cooney, and CJ (and possibly Jerami if he improves his skill set, and maybe Buss) for minutes at the 2/3 spots.

 

[newmexicuse]

You simply cannot say we will be better than a FF team unless you think we will win the NC. That is not to say that we will definitely be worse, but in order to be similiarly good we need the following questions all answered affirmatively:

1. Will DC2 take the big step to become a bona fida starter ?

2. Will Ennis be able to put up his 10 & 5, play solid D, and not make too many freshman mistakes ?

3. Will MikeG be able to replace Triche reasonably adequately on O and also give us MCW's length at the top of the Zone ?

4. Will Jerami improve as much as everybody here is expecting ?

5. Will we get significant contributions from at least one other frosh besides Ennis (lead candidate Roberson) ?

6. Will our D be as good ?

7. Will we find somebody who can give us some semblance of a backup PG (Patterson ?) ?

8. Will we get reasonable improvement from Trevor ?

9. Will we have no significant injuries or off the court issues ?

I think there is a better than 50 - 50 chance that each of the above questions is answered positively, but if we fall short in just a couple of those areas we will not be back to the FF. That is also not to mention that it takes some luck to get to the FF in terms of the team peaking at the right time, getting a decent seeding, and a decent draw.

 

[AirForceOrange]

As far as leadership...I don't think it will be much of an issue...with CJ and BMK. They may not be out in the open type leaders, more like locker room types...kind of like Derek Jeter.

 

[SBU72]

Here we go again. Last year at this time, there were countless posts on how the 2012-13 team was going to be better than than the year before. The reasons were DCII was going to be a stud in the middle, play 20-25 mins and avg a double double (or almost). Cooney was also going to splitting time evenly with the guards, being the designated shooter. The freshman to get the least time was to be Grant with many suggesting he red shirt! The returning guys were all going to step up led by MCW and Triche who with Cooney and Southerland going to have 3pt shooting never seen before at SU. Xmas was going to finally show his offense. Now how did that all work out? Yeah the team got to the FF but it wasn't based on offense, it was because of defense. DCII and Cooney had almost no effect and without Grant playing well those games Southerland was gone, SU would have been an middle seed at best, not a 4th. The best one should say is that hopefully SU will be strong again and be at or near the top of their league and in the TOP 20. To much is riding on freshman that have yet to even play with the team. (Summer sessions hasn't started yet has it?) With freshman, there can be too many surprises, either way. And one last point. 2 years ago the same retoric was being writen and much of it got turned around too.

 

[AirForceOrange]

Here we go again. Last year at this time, there were countless posts on how the 2012-13 team was going to be better than than the year before. The reasons were DCII was going to be a stud in the middle, play 20-25 mins and avg a double double (or almost). Cooney was also going to splitting time evenly with the guards, being the designated shooter. The freshman to get the least time was to be Grant with many suggesting he red shirt! The returning guys were all going to step up led by MCW and Triche who with Cooney and Southerland going to have 3pt shooting never seen before at SU. Xmas was going to finally show his offense. Now how did that all work out? Yeah the team got to the FF but it wasn't based on offense, it was because of defense. DCII and Cooney had almost no effect and without Grant playing well those games Southerland was gone, SU would have been an middle seed at best, not a 4th. The best one should say is that hopefully SU will be strong again and be at or near the top of their league and in the TOP 20. To much is riding on freshman that have yet to even play with the team. (Summer sessions hasn't started yet has it?) With freshman, there can be too many surprises, either way. And one last point. 2 years ago the same retoric was being writen and much of it got turned around too.

It's called a message board...it's what people do on them, especially the off-season...analyzing, conjecture and hope...

 

[jekelish]

Here we go again. Last year at this time, there were countless posts on how the 2012-13 team was going to be better than than the year before. The reasons were DCII was going to be a stud in the middle, play 20-25 mins and avg a double double (or almost). Cooney was also going to splitting time evenly with the guards, being the designated shooter. The freshman to get the least time was to be Grant with many suggesting he red shirt! The returning guys were all going to step up led by MCW and Triche who with Cooney and Southerland going to have 3pt shooting never seen before at SU. Xmas was going to finally show his offense. Now how did that all work out? Yeah the team got to the FF but it wasn't based on offense, it was because of defense. DCII and Cooney had almost no effect and without Grant playing well those games Southerland was gone, SU would have been an middle seed at best, not a 4th. The best one should say is that hopefully SU will be strong again and be at or near the top of their league and in the TOP 20. To much is riding on freshman that have yet to even play with the team. (Summer sessions hasn't started yet has it?) With freshman, there can be too many surprises, either way. And one last point. 2 years ago the same retoric was being writen and much of it got turned around too.

 

[OGBJ20]

Trust me. I hope you're right. But it isn't everyday that you see a 6-7 SG in the collegiate game.

Holy hell. Could you image Gbinije at the point and BJ at the 2? 6-6 and 6-7 backcourt. That's just about as big as most teams forwards. Excuse me while i pick my jaw up off the floor.

BJ has always had guard skills and the ability to play multiple positions (1-4 on the HS/AAU level effectively) because of his skill set, size and quickness. It is possible that you could see that combination or something similar to that in some instances during the season. Remember running the offense only requires to be able to take care off the rock to run the play or put it on the floor to score. While continuing to put in the work in practice, I believe that these group of players(BJ, TC, RP, MG along with Ennis) have the ability to accomplish that task from time to time in the back court.

 

[jekelish]

BJ has always had guard skills and the ability to play multiple positions (1-4 on the HS/AAU level effectively) because of his skill set, size and quickness. It is possible that you could see that combination or something similar to that in some instances during the season. Remember running the offense only requires to be able to take care off the rock to run the play or put it on the floor to score. While continuing to put in the work in practice, I believe that these group of players(BJ, TC, RP, MG along with Ennis) have the ability to accomplish that task from time to time in the back court.

I agree with that, which is why I don't think a lack of depth in terms of natural PGs is as dire as everyone else seems to think. It's only when we face a really aggressive press that I'll be concerned. But even then, the best way to beat a press is by passing so as long as we have smart players who make good, decisive decisions with their passes we should be okay.

 

[SBU72]

It's called a message board...it's what people do on them, especially the off-season...analyzing, conjecture and hope...

Yeah. Fans showing spirit is a good thing but sometimes it gets carried away, way to far. Many carry it all the way up to conference play before the find that their fanaticism is dilusional then blame the players. I prefer honest clear assessment with hopefulness. Like knowing SU = NC 2014.

 

[OGBJ20]

I agree with this for the most part...please don't take offense OG, typically in the past freshman have issues with the zone...not their fault, just typically not used to playing it, especially the way JB plays it...not saying BJ will fall in this category, I am talking generally, and not specifically about BJ, that there tends to be learning curve with the Syracuse zone...which is why you typically see much improvement from players defensively from fresh to soph...Also comes down to how much effort the player (again generally speaking) puts into practicing and playing defense...

BJ's High School team played somewhat of a SU type 2-3 zone this past year and he was very effective on the wing and out top in which he was the verbal QB of the defense. So he is familiar with some of the movements and defensive assignments. He will just like anyone coming in have to make the adjustments while learning the system.