Buffalo Bills - Draft / Free Agency

[STEVEHOLT]

From ESPN...this one hurts

Buffalo Bills

The trade: Buffalo sent second- and fifth-round picks in 2004 and a first-round pick in 2005 to Dallas to select quarterback J.P. Losman at No. 22 overall in 2004.
The Bills had already selected wide receiver Lee Evans at No. 13 after missing out on quarterbacks Eli Manning, Philip Rivers and Ben Roethlisberger earlier in the draft. Then-Buffalo general manager Tom Donahoe, in search of his quarterback of the future to replace Drew Bledsoe, traded back into the first round for Losman. The Tulane product spent only one year (2006) as the full-time starter and failed to build on that 3,000-yard season. Had the Bills kept their first-round pick in 2005, they could have selected Aaron Rodgers. -- Mike Rodak

 

[Melancer46]

Metcalf is the wide receiver version of workout warrior Mike Mamula

Mamula was before my time, but if you're trying to say that Metcalf flew up draft boards after the NFL Combine, you'd be wrong. Metcalf has been viewed as arguably the #1 WR prospect all year and his draft stock has probably declined since the Combine if anything.

 

[chugg21]

Mamula was before my time, but if you're trying to say that Metcalf flew up draft boards after the NFL Combine, you'd be wrong. Metcalf has been viewed as arguably the #1 WR prospect all year and his draft stock has probably declined since the Combine if anything.

He might have got a bump from the media post-combine but he's always been a guy that was a likely late 1st rounder. It's the opposite of Oliver. He's always been a top 5 guy and the media started dropping him for some reason. Both are going to end up where they've always been.

 

[NateW]

What I want Buffalo to do?
1. Ed Oliver - I don't think he slides to #9, but if he does, he's the easy choice IMO
2. D.K. Metcalf - I have him rated around the #6 or #7 prospect in the draft. Despite the depth of the WR position in this draft, I think he's worth the pick.
3. Trade down
4. Montez Sweat - This relies on Buffalo's medical staff being okay with his supposed heart condition.
5. Christian Wilkins - Think there's a drop off between Metcalf and Sweat and then an even larger dropoff to Wilkins, but Wilkins is a good player and makes a ton of sense with McDermott IMO.

My guess as to who Buffalo ultimately picks would be one of these 4 guys: Christian Wilkins, Brian Burns, DK Metcalf, or Rashan Gary

What do you think of Gary?

I’m not a guy who watches film, but he really popped off the screen to me on highlight clips in comparison to other edges. Then I saw the production and was taken aback at the lack of numbers.

He intrigues me but the lack of production is concerning.

 

[samspann1]

What do you think of Gary?

I’m not a guy who watches film, but he really popped off the screen to me on highlight clips in comparison to other edges. Then I saw the production and was taken aback at the lack of numbers.

He intrigues me but the lack of production is concerning.

You talking about Gary or Metcalf?

 

[SgtCuse]

I'm all in on hoping TJ Hockenson is available at 9. After watching some video on him run blocking I was extremely impressed and sold on him.

 

[Melancer46]

What do you think of Gary?

I’m not a guy who watches film, but he really popped off the screen to me on highlight clips in comparison to other edges. Then I saw the production and was taken aback at the lack of numbers.

He intrigues me but the lack of production is concerning.

I think he makes sense as an upside play like Beane seems to go after, but yeah, the lack of production is definitely a bit concerning which is why I'd prefer Sweat between the two.

 

[chugg21]

Starting to see stuff about Sweat possibly falling out of Rd 1 because of the heart issue. Can't see it happen but also couldn't see Mo Hurst falling to rd 5 last year because of his either.

 

[Toga]

Any thoughts on packaging #9 with our extra picks to move up for Josh Allen 2.0?

 

[Melancer46]

Any thoughts on packaging #9 with our extra picks to move up for Josh Allen 2.0?

I personally would be unhappy with a trade-up. I just don't think trade-ups in general are worth it. The only player I would remotely consider moving up for is Quinnen Williams.

 

[chugg21]

I agree. I wouldn't do it for Allen and have 0 interest in giving up a rd 2 pick to get up to 4 or wherever would be necessary to get one of the 2 elite guys. If it only took a 4th to go up to #6 or 7 to secure Oliver then sign me up but that's about it. Have a lot more hope that the Redskins want to get in front of Denver to secure Lock or Haskins and we can drop back to 15 while picking up a 3 and 5 or something like that and then still secure whichever OL/DL we were targeting anyway.

 

[chugg21]

What I want Buffalo to do?
1. Ed Oliver - I don't think he slides to #9, but if he does, he's the easy choice IMO
2. D.K. Metcalf - I have him rated around the #6 or #7 prospect in the draft. Despite the depth of the WR position in this draft, I think he's worth the pick.
3. Trade down
4. Montez Sweat - This relies on Buffalo's medical staff being okay with his supposed heart condition.
5. Christian Wilkins - Think there's a drop off between Metcalf and Sweat and then an even larger dropoff to Wilkins, but Wilkins is a good player and makes a ton of sense with McDermott IMO.

My guess as to who Buffalo ultimately picks would be one of these 4 guys: Christian Wilkins, Brian Burns, DK Metcalf, or Rashan Gary

Just looking at everything again. How did you get to this point with Metcalf? I can't get past that he has some of the worst WR agility numbers in not just this year but in combine history. I don't see how you can turn into an elite WR if all you can do is run in a straight line and try to out-muscle people.

 

[Melancer46]

Just looking at everything again. How did you get to this point with Metcalf? I can't get past that he has some of the worst WR agility numbers in not just this year but in combine history. I don't see how you can turn into an elite WR if all you can do is run in a straight line and try to out-muscle people.

The main reasons:
1. He'll be a day 1 starter IMO
2. His size, speed, youth, hand-fighting, and work ethic make him an extremely high-ceiling guy IMO
3. His size, speed, and hand-fighting in particular will put an insane amount of pressure on the defense every play. With him beating press coverage every snap and Brown/Foster on the other side, defenses will have to either keep two safeties deep and give up the underneath stuff/run game or they'll have to just pray that Allen can't connect on the deep ball.

So to me, he's a combination of a pretty high floor (assuming his medicals check out which I simply have no idea whether or not they will) and an extremely high ceiling.

It also helps his case that we don't really have anyone to play the X WR right now and he can step in and do that from day 1. We have Brown/Foster as the Z and Beasley/maybe Zay as the slot guys, but we don't really have anyone that succeeds as the X and DK should be able to do that immediately.

 

[chugg21]

The main reasons:
1. He'll be a day 1 starter IMO
2. His size, speed, youth, hand-fighting, and work ethic make him an extremely high-ceiling guy IMO
3. His size, speed, and hand-fighting in particular will put an insane amount of pressure on the defense every play. With him beating press coverage every snap and Brown/Foster on the other side, defenses will have to either keep two safeties deep and give up the underneath stuff/run game or they'll have to just pray that Allen can't connect on the deep ball.

So to me, he's a combination of a pretty high floor (assuming his medicals check out which I simply have no idea whether or not they will) and an extremely high ceiling.

It also helps his case that we don't really have anyone to play the X WR right now and he can step in and do that from day 1. We have Brown/Foster as the Z and Beasley/maybe Zay as the slot guys, but we don't really have anyone that succeeds as the X and DK should be able to do that immediately.

I just don't see it. I know the speed is drastically different but I just keep coming back to a faster in a straight line version of Laquon Treadwell. I can agree that there is a definite high ceiling giving the size/speed combination and I could be completely wrong but just feel like the floor is way too low for him to go in the top half of rd 1. WR seems to have become just as difficult as QB to hit on high in the draft. All of the guys like Parker and Doctson that I thought were going to be really good have done nothing.

 

[Melancer46]

I just don't see it. I know the speed is drastically different but I just keep coming back to a faster in a straight line version of Laquon Treadwell. I can agree that there is a definite high ceiling giving the size/speed combination and I could be completely wrong but just feel like the floor is way too low for him to go in the top half of rd 1. WR seems to have become just as difficult as QB to hit on high in the draft. All of the guys like Parker and Doctson that I thought were going to be really good have done nothing.

I just don't think his floor is low at all to be honest. If he stays healthy, he should be at minimum an outstanding decoy that helps to free up the other WRs due to the attention he demands. His deep-ball ability is enough for him to be a decent starter right away IMO. His only path to being a bust IMO is to have a QB that can't throw deep or for him to simply get hurt.

Treadwell was a dead man walking; while he was a fairly big guy, he was slow, couldn't really jump, and struggled both beating press coverage and getting separation when he wasn't pressed. I don't really know how anyone expected him to beat his man in the NFL. If there's a Treadwell comp in this year's draft class, it might be JJ Arcega-Whiteside, who I'm rooting for but still unsure about. And even he is at least significantly more athletic than Treadwell was and doesn't really rely on outjumping people anyways.

 

[MSOrange]

Top draft prospect Rashan Gary reportedly has 'flagged' shoulder; will likely need to be managed in 2019

 

[NateW]

I have a source telling me

Taylor, Oliver, Wilkins, or Gary

Depending on who remains

Take it for what it’s worth but source has been dead on the past few years

 

[JarHeadJim]

I have a source telling me

Taylor, Oliver, Wilkins, or Gary

Depending on who remains

Take it for what it’s worth but source has been dead on the past few years

I hope it's Oliver!

 

[Melancer46]

I have a source telling me

Taylor, Oliver, Wilkins, or Gary

Depending on who remains

Take it for what it’s worth but source has been dead on the past few years

Does your source by chance know if they quietly brought Wilkins in for an official visit? Wilkins has long been the guy that I would have expected McDermott to want in his defense but Beane has never drafted someone in the first round that didn't come in for an official visit, and at least based on public knowledge, Wilkins has not (but I also think public knowledge only knows about 1 or 2 official visits that Wilkins has been on which probably means his agent just isn't telling people).

 

[NateW]

Does your source by chance know if they quietly brought Wilkins in for an official visit? Wilkins has long been the guy that I would have expected McDermott to want in his defense but Beane has never drafted someone in the first round that didn't come in for an official visit, and at least based on public knowledge, Wilkins has not (but I also think public knowledge only knows about 1 or 2 official visits that Wilkins has been on which probably means his agent just isn't telling people).

Don’t have any info on that - unfortunately its a 3rd hand source. Guy I work with knows the source and then he relays the info to me so I don’t get the chance to talk to the guy directly.

Maybe they have been smoke and mirrors with Wilkins figuring the other three probably won’t be there at 9 so they want to keep their intentions hidden with him - although Gary might be available now with the injury issue.

 

[chugg21]

Only shot at Oliver seems to be if at least 2 QBs go in the top 6 and the Jets/Raiders prefer Williams and Allen over him. Taylor seems like a 50/50 shot, just depends on what the Jags do at 7.

 

[Alsacs]

Down here in Charlotte the reports are the Panthers want Sweat from Mississippi State.
If that’s true I think the Bills may want him as well.

 

[chugg21]

Kiper and McShay final mocks up. Kiper going with Jonah Williams at 9, McShay with Taylor. Interestingly McShay has 0 WRs in the 1st rd and Kiper only has Hollywood.

 

[chugg21]

Down here in Charlotte the reports are the Panthers want Sweat from Mississippi State.
If that’s true I think the Bills may want him as well.

Maybe if they traded down to 15 for the Skins to come up for a QB. They are pretty risk adverse and wouldn't think they'd have any interest in him at 9 with red flags.

 

[samspann1]

Gary scares the hell out of me.

IMO, the bum shoulder and lack of production don't outweigh the measureables.