TheCusian
Living Legend
- Joined
- Sep 24, 2012
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I always think expectations are a dangerous thing. The tendency is to set it at a win level. The problem with that is that if you get better (perform better, play harder, score more, etc) but your schedule gets tougher - your W/L record may look the same or worse.
Shafer, 2014: 3-9 (SoS: 57th toughest schedule)
Shafer, 2015: 4-8 (SoS: 41st toughest schedule)
Babers, 2016: 4-8 (SoS: 39th toughest schedule)
Babers, 2017: 4-8 (SoS: 8th toughest schedule)
Throw in injuries (esp at QB) and other unforeseen things - and it's pretty dubious to set expectations just at some random W number.
I also think "getting to a bowl" is kind of crap too. Sometimes a 5 win teams get in. Lesser teams from weak conferences but with .500 records play in bowls. Teams we'd beat more often than not. Is 4-8 vs the number 8 SoS worth more than 6 wins in the AAC? No one actually asks these questions (though, I hope Wildhack thinks this way).
Whatever. I think this is reasonable vs this year's schedule:
- A realistic chance to win vs every team we play (Clemson is the obvious outlier, IMO - but last year)
- A more efficient, higher scoring offense
- A better red zone TD %
- Less INT from ED
- A better running game from RB
- More sacks and TFL
- More INT from our secondary
- Less pass yards given up
- Less of a cliff if ED goes out due to injury on both offense and defense (TD should provide more than Rex and Mahoney last year, the D should have more faith in TD, and we should still believe the season won't be lost)
Thoughts?
Shafer, 2014: 3-9 (SoS: 57th toughest schedule)
Shafer, 2015: 4-8 (SoS: 41st toughest schedule)
Babers, 2016: 4-8 (SoS: 39th toughest schedule)
Babers, 2017: 4-8 (SoS: 8th toughest schedule)
Throw in injuries (esp at QB) and other unforeseen things - and it's pretty dubious to set expectations just at some random W number.
I also think "getting to a bowl" is kind of crap too. Sometimes a 5 win teams get in. Lesser teams from weak conferences but with .500 records play in bowls. Teams we'd beat more often than not. Is 4-8 vs the number 8 SoS worth more than 6 wins in the AAC? No one actually asks these questions (though, I hope Wildhack thinks this way).
Whatever. I think this is reasonable vs this year's schedule:
- A realistic chance to win vs every team we play (Clemson is the obvious outlier, IMO - but last year)
- A more efficient, higher scoring offense
- A better red zone TD %
- Less INT from ED
- A better running game from RB
- More sacks and TFL
- More INT from our secondary
- Less pass yards given up
- Less of a cliff if ED goes out due to injury on both offense and defense (TD should provide more than Rex and Mahoney last year, the D should have more faith in TD, and we should still believe the season won't be lost)
Thoughts?