FANTASTIC article on ESPN

[OttoinGrotto]

Here's the money quote:

While Berry hasn't bought into Kelley's philosophy completely -- the Warhawks punted several times on fourth-and-short against the Razorbacks -- his teams have been among the most aggressive in the country in fourth-down attempts.


"I've studied a lot of the statistical data," Berry said. "I went and talked to [Kelley]. Ever since I've been a head coach, we've gone for it on fourth down quite a bit. I think there's a lot of risk and reward to it. It's not a big deal for our players because they're used to it and expect it."

http://espn.go.com/ncf/notebook/_/page/football-120910Schlabach/week-3

 

[Millhouse]

Here's the money quote:

While Berry hasn't bought into Kelley's philosophy completely -- the Warhawks punted several times on fourth-and-short against the Razorbacks -- his teams have been among the most aggressive in the country in fourth-down attempts.


"I've studied a lot of the statistical data," Berry said. "I went and talked to [Kelley]. Ever since I've been a head coach, we've gone for it on fourth down quite a bit. I think there's a lot of risk and reward to it. It's not a big deal for our players because they're used to it and expect it."

http://espn.go.com/ncf/notebook/_/page/football-120910Schlabach/week-3

part of the problem is that the big stupid meatheads who coach football have never punted and think that it's way easier than it actually is. they've all run blocked and tackled at some level. but there aren't any punters turned head coaches.

so you end up with knuckleheads who flip out that punters don't hit everything 42 yards with 5 seconds of hang time or when punters screw up a coffin corner.

i think of all the giants fan meatheads who flip out that their punter doesn't have perfect aim when he drops a pointed ball and kicks

 

[OttoinGrotto]

part of the problem is that the big stupid meatheads who coach football have never punted and think that it's way easier than it actually is. they've all run blocked and tackled at some level. but there aren't any punters turned head coaches.

so you end up with knuckleheads who flip out that punters don't hit everything 42 yards with 5 seconds of hang time or when punters screw up a coffin corner.

i think of all the giants fan meatheads who flip out that their punter doesn't have perfect aim when he drops a pointed ball and kicks

That's a pretty good point.

 

[KaiserUEO]

i think of all the giants fan meatheads who flip out that their punter doesn't have perfect aim when he drops a pointed ball and kicks

hey, we're not meatheads we're drunks.

actually, i dare anyone to find a fan base who pretty much has loved the punter for the better part of almost 40years.

of course this bleeds into contempt when you expect certain things.

Dave Jennings
Sean Landeta
Jeff Feagles
Steve 'Im going to the SuperBowl' Weatherford

theyve had more great punters than great QBs.

yet 4 Lombardi's, suckas!!!!!

 

[djcon57]

Here's the money quote:

While Berry hasn't bought into Kelley's philosophy completely -- the Warhawks punted several times on fourth-and-short against the Razorbacks -- his teams have been among the most aggressive in the country in fourth-down attempts.


"I've studied a lot of the statistical data," Berry said. "I went and talked to [Kelley]. Ever since I've been a head coach, we've gone for it on fourth down quite a bit. I think there's a lot of risk and reward to it. It's not a big deal for our players because they're used to it and expect it."

http://espn.go.com/ncf/notebook/_/page/football-120910Schlabach/week-3

""Whether you're giving them the ball at the 20 or the 40, they're capable of throwing an 80-yard touchdown pass," Berry said. "Arkansas is a great team and has exceptional athletes. I didn't think field position was as critical in this game."


Wow. Amazing. Someone gets it.

 

[GoSU96]

""Whether you're giving them the ball at the 20 or the 40, they're capable of throwing an 80-yard touchdown pass," Berry said. "Arkansas is a great team and has exceptional athletes. I didn't think field position was as critical in this game."


Wow. Amazing. Someone gets it.

Except for the fact that field position was important in this game. SU had done well defending the long field to that point. They weren't getting beat deep and USC wasn't trying.

 

[djcon57]

Except for the fact that field position was important in this game. SU had done well defending the long field to that point. They weren't getting beat deep and USC wasn't trying.

How can you say field position was important in this game with a straight face when they had an 76 yard reverse on the 1st play from the 20 after the punt?

The point is USC offense = good. Doesn't matter where you give them ball. We needed possession not field position.

And this isn't hindsight. I was saying it at the time.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

Except that field position doesn't really matter when you're on the opponents 32, and except that field position doesn't matter when you're down two scores in the 4th to a superior opponent at mid field and only need two yards to sustain your own drive.

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[All4SU]

Except that field position doesn't really matter when you're on the opponents 32, and except that field position doesn't matter when you're down two scores in the 4th to a superior opponent at mid field and only need two yards to sustain your own drive.

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I thought it was on the 49.

 

[Chip]

Except for the fact that field position was important in this game. SU had done well defending the long field to that point. They weren't getting beat deep and USC wasn't trying.

That's certainly true, our coverage was designed to prevent it as Rahme pointed out. But I also think you're playing with fire when you keep giving those guys chances. Lee's long TD to start the season was on a short pass. Those guys don't need a deep ball to make a big play. If you truly want to win that game, you have to figure out a way to outscore them, and I don't think field position football at that point of the game when down 12 is the way to do it.

 

[Chip]

I thought it was on the 49.

You didn't read his whole post. And by post I mean run on sentence. But he references midfield, the scene of the 2nd of 2 questioned punts.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

You didn't read his whole post. And by post I mean run on sentence. But he references midfield, the scene of the 2nd of 2 questioned punts.

Thank you, Chip.

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[Millhouse]

That's certainly true, our coverage was designed to prevent it as Rahme pointed out. But I also think you're playing with fire when you keep giving those guys chances. Lee's long TD to start the season was on a short pass. Those guys don't need a deep ball to make a big play. If you truly want to win that game, you have to figure out a way to outscore them, and I don't think field position football at that point of the game when down 12 is the way to do it.

Odds of forcing three and out and odds of picking up 4th down cant be the same because you get more time keeping the ball. What odds are implied by Marrone? Three and outs cant be expected more than 33% against usc. Since that has a time cost it implies Martone thinks we have a 20-30% chance to get two yds? He is crazy if he thinks that way. He doesn't think though, he just follows a stupid dusty textbook

PS Edit the auto spell on my phone and kindle are completely nuts and I always forget to look it over. I feel like cali. implies became simplistic up above

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[tep624]

""Whether you're giving them the ball at the 20 or the 40, they're capable of throwing an 80-yard touchdown pass," Berry said. "Arkansas is a great team and has exceptional athletes. I didn't think field position was as critical in this game."


Wow. Amazing. Someone gets it.

A guy with a 38-74 career record as a head coach gets it. Sweet!

 

[Chip]

Odds of forcing three and out and odds of picking up 4th down cant be the same because you get more time keeping the ball. What odds are implied by Marrone? Three and outs cant be expected more than 33% against usc. Since that has a time cost it simplistic Martone thinks we have a 20-30% chance to get two yds? He is crazy if he thinks that way. He doesn't think though, he just follows a stupid dusty textbook

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Marrone talks a pretty good game about statistical analysis of these situations. It would be comforting that he brings this stuff up if I had an ounce of belief that he really uses it. He makes his punt decisions in about 5 seconds, and they seemed to be from the "what a football coach is supposed to do" list. The odds of getting 2 yards in 1 play when you control what play we run just has to be better than the odds of USC (and their future NFL offense) getting 10 yards in 3 plays when they control the play calls. No one can convince me otherwise. That's not even factoring in that whole pointy shaped ball bouncing in a predictable manner thing.

Marrone is just one of those coaches (there are plenty of them) that are terrified of 4th down. All it takes is one failed conversion to get a coach into that shell.

Some coaches (Kiffin, Paul Johnson, Mike Leach) just look at it as another down. Although Kiffin's fullback trap early on was out of the coaches 'safe things you should run on 4th and 1' list.

I know some see Marrone coming out of that shell as he starts to trust this much improved offense. I'll believe it (pleasantly) when I see it.

 

[bevosu]

When he decided to punt on 4th and 2, I didn't give much thought to statistical analysis, although I thought we had some offensive momentum and figured we had a pretty good chance of making it.

My thought at the time was about the negative emotional impact it would have on the team in general and the offense in particular. A bad message to send given the game situation.

I was listening to the game on WAER while watching it on TV. The WAER announcers mentioned that Nassib looked unhappy when that decision was made. Body language and some verbal questioning of the decision. I didn't see it, so I can't confirm that.

I thought it was a terrible decision...and I like Marrone.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

The odds of getting 2 yards in 1 play when you control what play we run just has to be better than the odds of USC (and their future NFL offense) getting 10 yards in 3 plays when they control the play calls. No one can convince me otherwise. That's not even factoring in that whole pointy shaped ball bouncing in a predictable manner thing.

You don't even need to make it through that whole thought process. If you can just think "I can get 2 yards whenever I decide the play" and keep the offense out there, you've made a good call.

And really, if you don't believe you can get 2 yards on every play, you certainly can't get 10 yards in 3 dowsn, so why even bother playing the game at all?

 

[billsin01]

Marrone talks a pretty good game about statistical analysis of these situations. It would be comforting that he brings this stuff up if I had an ounce of belief that he really uses it. He makes his punt decisions in about 5 seconds, and they seemed to be from the "what a football coach is supposed to do" list. The odds of getting 2 yards in 1 play when you control what play we run just has to be better than the odds of USC (and their future NFL offense) getting 10 yards in 3 plays when they control the play calls. No one can convince me otherwise. That's not even factoring in that whole pointy shaped ball bouncing in a predictable manner thing.

Marrone is just one of those coaches (there are plenty of them) that are terrified of 4th down. All it takes is one failed conversion to get a coach into that shell.

Some coaches (Kiffin, Paul Johnson, Mike Leach) just look at it as another down. Although Kiffin's fullback trap early on was out of the coaches 'safe things you should run on 4th and 1' list.

I know some see Marrone coming out of that shell as he starts to trust this much improved offense. I'll believe it (pleasantly) when I see it.

This was a good post. A couple points:

-- I'd compare watching DM make fourth down decisions to watching "Speed" with Dennis Hopper and Keanau Reeves, except the very first time Hopper said, "Pop Quiz, hot shot!" Reeves started sweating profusely and invariably came up with the wrong answer. So when the bus can't go below 40, DM would have said, "Let's take it down to 25 here, it's a residential area and we've got a downhill turn to the left coming up." The movie would have only been about 25 minutes and we probably wouldn't have been treated to the sequel on the yacht. Anyway, this was a self-indulgent way of saying DM just doesn't seem to know what he wants to do when decisions are needed on the fly.

-- when comparing the odds of usc getting 10 yards in 3 plays, etc., it's worth also pointing out that our specials have not only not helped us win games in 3+ years, they general hinder our chances. So just another reason to go for it.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

-- I'd compare watching DM make fourth down decisions to watching "Speed" with Dennis Hopper and Keanau Reeves, except the very first time Hopper said, "Pop Quiz, hot shot!" Reeves started sweating profusely and invariably came up with the wrong answer. So when the bus can't go below 40, DM would have said, "Let's take it down to 25 here, it's a residential area and we've got a downhill turn to the left coming up." The movie would have only been about 25 minutes and we probably wouldn't have been treated to the sequel on the yacht. Anyway, this was a self-indulgent way of saying DM just doesn't seem to know what he wants to do when decisions are needed on the fly.

I'm going to go right ahead and nominate this for post of the year. I'm in tears. Seriously, my wife's giving me the look.

Not that look, the other look.

 

[mantonio]

You don't even need to make it through that whole thought process. If you can just think "I can get 2 yards whenever I decide the play" and keep the offense out there, you've made a good call.

And really, if you don't believe you can get 2 yards on every play, you certainly can't get 10 yards in 3 dowsn, so why even bother playing the game at all?

This is all dependent on the situation. You wouldn't have this thought process backed up inside your own 30.

That being said, in this situation, when you are down by double digits with not much time left, & sit at midfield, you GOTTA trust that you can get those 2 yards when you need them.

 

[Millhouse]

When he decided to punt on 4th and 2, I didn't give much thought to statistical analysis, although I thought we had some offensive momentum and figured we had a pretty good chance of making it.

My thought at the time was about the negative emotional impact it would have on the team in general and the offense in particular. A bad message to send given the game situation.

I was listening to the game on WAER while watching it on TV. The WAER announcers mentioned that Nassib looked unhappy when that decision was made. Body language and some verbal questioning of the decision. I didn't see it, so I can't confirm that.

I thought it was a terrible decision...and I like Marrone.

Good for Nassib. I hope the players respectfully talk to marrone about this stuff and hopefully get through to him

 

[OttoinGrotto]

This is all dependent on the situation. You wouldn't have this thought process backed up inside your own 30.

Eh, I might. And if Marrone was at his own 30 and went for a 4th and 2 and it failed and he said in the presser that he did it because he was certain he could get two yards, how can I argue with that?

 

[mantonio]

Eh, I might. And if Marrone was at his own 30 and went for a 4th and 2 and it failed and he said in the presser that he did it because he was certain he could get two yards, how can I argue with that?

You have to factor in mistakes. What if the ball carrier stumbles before reaching that goal? Ground effects are to be considered. Is it slippery from rain? It was raining that day.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

You have to factor in mistakes. What if the ball carrier stumbles before reaching that goal? Ground effects are to be considered. Is it slippery from rain? It was raining that day.

Well, I did factor in mistakes. That's why I'm dealing in probabilities. The probabilities account for mistakes. If on any given play I have a 75% chance of getting 2 yards, the other 25% is the gamble I take.

 

[Millhouse]

Well, I did factor in mistakes. That's why I'm dealing in probabilities. The probabilities account for mistakes. If on any given play I have a 75% chance of getting 2 yards, the other 25% is the gamble I take.

People will tell crazy stories to justify their kicking bias. Don't forget asteroids guys!

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