HtownOrange
Living Legend
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In the emotionalmoment, it may be in FSU’s and Clemson’s interest. However, the SEC and B1G are not making $50MM more than the ACC and won’t do so for a long time, using the old projections.
Right now, FSU and Clemson agree that their buyouts would cost roughly $50MM/year left on the deal To get out of the ACC. Assuming that they immediately get picked up by the SEC or B1G, they will immediately start losing money because the new payout will not cover the buyout and the lost ACC share. Carry it through to 2036 and each team will lose a lot. Then add in the look-ins for ACC share increases.
if you prefer, the SEC is Payton out $51MM for 2023. The ACC is paying out $43MM, a difference of $8MM. If FSU had left, they would lose the ACC share of $43MM and payout the $50MM buyout, totaling $93MM to make $51MM, a net loss of $42MM.
Yes, the SEC is projected to increase more than the ACC, but the cost of getting out will not be at a break even until decades out, assuming a steady star, which we all know CFB is not in a steady state. All bloggers, blowhards, and internet mouthpieces use favorable SEC and B1G projections against outdated ACC guarantees, the premise is false to begin with. Nor is ESPN as apt to facilitate FSU to the SEC without significant payout to the ACC so they can avoid a tortious interference claim. Basically, FSU to the SEC is a losing proposition for ESPN as they already own FSU until 2036, there is no incentive for ESPN to move FSU.
To be sure, if Alford could have gotten FSU out for $100MM, it probably would have been a good deal. The ACC has been clear, FSU is not leaving for $100MM.
Further, FSU must have a landing, neither the SEC nor the B1G are accepting applications right now. To add to FSU’s dilemma, ESPN is not likely to agree to a buyout for less than they guarantee the ACC if FSU jumps to the B1G/Fox. Why would ESPN give up a profitable property to a competitor for nothing in return?
Alford is an ambulance chaser with no real business experience, no television experience, and no understanding of the complex relationships involved in major college sports. He is acting like a toddler throwing a tantrum because he wants the shiny toy $$£€¥$$ that the SEC and B1G have. He cannot see that if he waits, he can get what he wants for a lot less than what it will cost him now at a major loss.
Let’s also not forget that he is not likely to remain the AD for 10 more years so any actions and debts/losses he creates likely will not fall to his “legacy”. The egos of Nuevo riche verify their naivety.
I think some accounting/finance/business types at FSU will rise up against Alford as this decision is clearly not in FSU’s financial interest. The FSU BoT has a fiduciary responsibility to run the university on sound financial principles. Affords dream is not even close to the BoT’s level of responsibility. It amazes me that this has gone this far.
