Jerry says we have the 15th best class

[Sherman20]

Why is the word narrative being used again when in fact both players were horribly disappointing last year. I won't say sucked because its not appropriate. Its like narrative is the new magic word on the board to just try to make peoples opinions which are certainly more in line with reality disappear.

Because whether accurate or not, these are the narratives that have developed around these players. Try to keep up.

 

[IthacaMatt]

How I see the roster shaking out as is.
Starters

Howard 10pts 8ast 4reb 2stl
Battle 18pts 3reb 2ast
Moyer 11pts 5reb
Thompson 18pts 6reb
Chukwu 4pts 7reb 3blk

Bench

Washington 3pts 2ast
Dolezaj 4pts 4reb
Brisset 5pts 4reb
Sidibe 6pts 3reb

Looks good to me. Just short another guard. Anything happens to any of our guards and we are super screwed at this point.

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8 assists a game for Frank would be sensational. I don't think SU has had more than a couple PGs hit that mark so far this century, so I think you're being too optimistic. Around 5 Assists per game would be my "over/under".

And while I like to think that Taurean Thompson could score 18 PPG, I think a number closer to 10 is likely. His defense is not good enough to play 35 minutes a game.

I think the 'surprise" player in this group is Brissett. I could see him winning the SF starting role over Moyer.

 

[Grbac]

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8 assists a game for Frank would be sensational. I don't think SU has had more than a couple PGs hit that mark so far this century, so I think you're being too optimistic. Around 5 Assists per game would be my "over/under".

And while I like to think that Taurean Thompson could score 18 PPG, I think a number closer to 10 is likely. His defense is not good enough to play 35 minutes a game.

I think the 'surprise" player in this group is Brissett. I could see him winning the SF starting role over Moyer.

All fair opinions.
I would for sure take the over on Franklin. It all depends on if we snag another PG or not. A guy like Geno would take minutes away from FH more than likely. While another Freshman PG probably would not.

I would put any amount of money on TT averaging around 18ppg give or take 2. Him and Battle are our offense through and through. They will take plenty of shots. And will need to.

I love Brissets game. I hope you are right I am very excited to see Moyer and Brisset.

 

[IthacaMatt]

Do they give out championships for having the highest rated class?? Seriously...why does it even matter how or why he got that number for our class? Classes overachieve and underachieve if you go off their rankings...I mean these rankings are still based partially off subjective scores by people who evaluate players. Let's just move on and see how they play, then we'll decide if they deserve the 15 or not!

Seriously, there is a lot of correlation between HS hoops ratings and actual on-court results. Much more accurate than football, because there are fewer players, and fewer dependencies on how other players play, and the extent to which that defines your individual success.

Honestly, most 5 star players (top 20, roughly) are immediate impact players in college, and half go one-and-done. Nearly all the rest are gone by year two.

Four star players (our bread-and-butter) are typically ranked from about 20-75, give or take. These kids range from just-missed-McDonald's AA (like Paul Harris or Dion Waiters) to kids ranked in the 40s or so (C.J. Fair type of players) to big guys who usually take a year or two to make an impact (50+), but have good measurables.

So, if you want to say that rankings are not science, yes I agree. But if you think rankings don't matter, then you just haven't been following recruiting long enough to see the trends.

 

[Oráiste]

That's the thing. We didn't have a 1 and done this year.

we had 2. From a roster maintenance perspective, grad xfers are functionally the same as 1&done frosh

 

[Cusefan0307]

we had 2. From a roster maintenance perspective, grad xfers are functionally the same as 1&done frosh

No different than replacing seniors...

 

[Funk Doc]

Seriously, there is a lot of correlation between HS hoops ratings and actual on-court results. Much more accurate than football, because there are fewer players, and fewer dependencies on how other players play, and the extent to which that defines your individual success.

Honestly, most 5 star players (top 20, roughly) are immediate impact players in college, and half go one-and-done. Nearly all the rest are gone by year two.

Four star players (our bread-and-butter) are typically ranked from about 20-75, give or take. These kids range from just-missed-McDonald's AA (like Paul Harris or Dion Waiters) to kids ranked in the 40s or so (C.J. Fair type of players) to big guys who usually take a year or two to make an impact (50+), but have good measurables.

So, if you want to say that rankings are not science, yes I agree. But if you think rankings don't matter, then you just haven't been following recruiting long enough to see the trends.

This is exactly why I could care less about rankings, especially what ours is. You are 100% right, that these guys have been our history, but you can find gems in this group(Lydon), and some players that just don't pan out(Sean Williams).

My basic argument though, is that having the top recruiting class, yes will make you competitive, because you will be loaded with talent, but by no means does it guarantee any team success.

If the players we grab, correctly fill holes in our roster, then I don't care if it's 10 or 50 in someones ranking.

 

[KevMonstah]

I would like to hope this class is a top 20 class, cuz it probably has to provide at least two frontcourt starters, in some combo
of Moyer and Brissett/Sidibe to go with Thompson. At the very least, you're probably looking at JB rapidly swapping Chukwu,
Sidibe, and Brissett in any attempt to find some productivity. If you add Thorpe, you're up to three starters.

With some of the stat stuff in the thread ... Thompson is going certainly going to get the opportunity to shoot enough to get
18 ppg. There is no way that he doesn't play close to 40, along with Battle, every night; if he doesn't, you ought to get used
to games like that 47-45 game against GTech a few years ago, because it sure seems like they are going to struggle offensively.
Likewise, there's also no way Howard puts up 8 assists a game. The comparison between his per 40 conference stats and
MCW's is a bit deceptive: with MCW he did PLAY the 40 per; with Howard, you're projecting his stats from very limited
PT. For example, you could look at his games against Lville (home OT) and Pitt (away) and say, "he put up 8 pts in 19 mins,
and 12 pts in 25 mins, that averages out over forty mins well", but you'd also have to look at the other 16 ACC games (one
DNP), where he scored a TOTAL of 27 pts, and that's garbage. Can he improve? Sure, but if SU gets 8/3/2/1 out of him,
they should jump for joy. And I don't want another 3.6 assists per game "average", where he has 55 of his 120 total assists
in five games before Christmas. A little more focus on the conference play please.

I'm not privy to all the moving parts, but I don't see why they aren't looking a little harder at Waters. I'm sure it's hashed
out in that thread, but, yeah, you want a PG. You're looking at a grad transfer who may go home to play, a PG who can't
decide what year he wants to begin college, and you're leaving alone the #12 PG of the class according to Skowt. That's
weird. And too bad SU didn't get the #17 PG: Remy Martin would fit in just fine on name alone.

Kev

 

[Oráiste]

How I see the roster shaking out as is.
Starters

Howard 10pts 8ast 4reb 2stl

going back 20 years, it looks like the average numbers for a starting SU point are around 12ppg and 5apg.

seems to me that Howard's best skills are his vision & passing, so I could see him being better than average in the assists department, but well below average in the scoring department. I think if he earns the starting job & keeps it all year, averages of 7ppg and 6apg would be about what I'd expect

 

[RealMcNeil]

I would like to hope this class is a top 20 class, cuz it probably has to provide at least two frontcourt starters, in some combo
of Moyer and Brissett/Sidibe to go with Thompson. At the very least, you're probably looking at JB rapidly swapping Chukwu,
Sidibe, and Brissett in any attempt to find some productivity. If you add Thorpe, you're up to three starters.

With some of the stat stuff in the thread ... Thompson is going certainly going to get the opportunity to shoot enough to get
18 ppg. There is no way that he doesn't play close to 40, along with Battle, every night; if he doesn't, you ought to get used
to games like that 47-45 game against GTech a few years ago, because it sure seems like they are going to struggle offensively.
Likewise, there's also no way Howard puts up 8 assists a game. The comparison between his per 40 conference stats and
MCW's is a bit deceptive: with MCW he did PLAY the 40 per; with Howard, you're projecting his stats from very limited
PT. For example, you could look at his games against Lville (home OT) and Pitt (away) and say, "he put up 8 pts in 19 mins,
and 12 pts in 25 mins, that averages out over forty mins well", but you'd also have to look at the other 16 ACC games (one
DNP), where he scored a TOTAL of 27 pts, and that's garbage. Can he improve? Sure, but if SU gets 8/3/2/1 out of him,
they should jump for joy. And I don't want another 3.6 assists per game "average", where he has 55 of his 120 total assists
in five games before Christmas. A little more focus on the conference play please.

I'm not privy to all the moving parts, but I don't see why they aren't looking a little harder at Waters. I'm sure it's hashed
out in that thread, but, yeah, you want a PG. You're looking at a grad transfer who may go home to play, a PG who can't
decide what year he wants to begin college, and you're leaving alone the #12 PG of the class according to Skowt. That's
weird. And too bad SU didn't get the #17 PG: Remy Martin would fit in just fine on name alone.

Kev

Your view of the statistics are as misguided as the comparisons to MCW. If you continue to slice the overall data set into very narrow reference points, you can create or fit any narrative you want. Amplify the games he played poorly and/or insignificant minutes, and downplay the few games he got a solid run and played well.

 

[two3zone]

Shocked if he doubled his ACC output with an increased role from 10/11mpg?

If he plays 30 a game I'd be shocked if he has 4/5 apg.

 

[CJOJ]

I'd like to see the formula for this. I don't buy that number.

I think Jerry is probably using his own sites rankings as opposed to the composite, which have all of our players about 30-100 spots better than their composite ranks.

Probably not perfectly apples to apples, but if you take the kids from the composite ranks at the same spot (i.e. 247 has brissett 48th, daejon Davis is 48 in composite) and drop them into the class calculator it comes up with a score that would put us 12th, just ahead of Florida state.

FWIW, the equivalent class in the composite would be Daejon Davis, Nojel Eastern, Thomas Allen, and Sasha Stefanovic if anyone cares haha

 

[GooseMutt]

X

I would like to hope this class is a top 20 class, cuz it probably has to provide at least two frontcourt starters, in some combo
of Moyer and Brissett/Sidibe to go with Thompson. At the very least, you're probably looking at JB rapidly swapping Chukwu,
Sidibe, and Brissett in any attempt to find some productivity. If you add Thorpe, you're up to three starters.

With some of the stat stuff in the thread ... Thompson is going certainly going to get the opportunity to shoot enough to get
18 ppg. There is no way that he doesn't play close to 40, along with Battle, every night; if he doesn't, you ought to get used
to games like that 47-45 game against GTech a few years ago, because it sure seems like they are going to struggle offensively.
Likewise, there's also no way Howard puts up 8 assists a game. The comparison between his per 40 conference stats and
MCW's is a bit deceptive: with MCW he did PLAY the 40 per; with Howard, you're projecting his stats from very limited
PT. For example, you could look at his games against Lville (home OT) and Pitt (away) and say, "he put up 8 pts in 19 mins,
and 12 pts in 25 mins, that averages out over forty mins well", but you'd also have to look at the other 16 ACC games (one
DNP), where he scored a TOTAL of 27 pts, and that's garbage. Can he improve? Sure, but if SU gets 8/3/2/1 out of him,
they should jump for joy. And I don't want another 3.6 assists per game "average", where he has 55 of his 120 total assists
in five games before Christmas. A little more focus on the conference play please.

I'm not privy to all the moving parts, but I don't see why they aren't looking a little harder at Waters. I'm sure it's hashed
out in that thread, but, yeah, you want a PG. You're looking at a grad transfer who may go home to play, a PG who can't
decide what year he wants to begin college, and you're leaving alone the #12 PG of the class according to Skowt. That's
weird. And too bad SU didn't get the #17 PG: Remy Martin would fit in just fine on name alone.

Kev

No one seems to be recruiting Waters hard. Where there's smoke there's fire

 

[IthacaMatt]

No different than replacing seniors...

Except for the complete lack of continuity as a member of the program.

 

[Cusefan0307]

Except for the complete lack of continuity as a member of the program.

Yeah that's what I was getting at.

We know those scholarships are unfilled for the next year. I'm sick of the grad transfer model after one year. I hope we build continuity in the program to avoid it.

 

[721Comstock]

Yeah that's what I was getting at.

We know those scholarships are unfilled for the next year. I'm sick of the grad transfer model after one year. I hope we build continuity in the program to avoid it.

But somehow the one-and-done model is OK? :noidea:

Everybody keeps missing the point on the Grad Transfers -
They are Plan D - "break glass in case of emergency" options.
When all other options have previously been exhausted.

You'd have preferred we roll last year WITHOUT AWIII and JG?
We didn't leave those slots open on purpose.

I THANK GOD that there's such a thing as Grad Transfers.
We woulda been completely screwed last year without them.
And may be this year, if we don't land Thorpe (or Ayala).

 

[Cusefan0307]

But somehow the one-and-done model is OK? :noidea:

Everybody keeps missing the point on the Grad Transfers -
They are Plan D - "break glass in case of emergency" options.
When all other options have previously been exhausted.

You'd have preferred we roll last year WITHOUT AWIII and JG?
We didn't leave those slots open on purpose.

I THANK GOD that there's such a thing as Grad Transfers.
We woulda been completely screwed last year without them.
And may be this year, if we don't land Thorpe (or Ayala).

No. You missed my point. I know they are plan D. We need to be better at signing high school prospects for continuity. White and Gillon were good, but didn't fit our system overall and we still missed the tournament.

 

[cuse10]

Regarding this class, I think they'll all be good to decent pieces down the line. While there are no immediate pros from this group, it is a good foundation going forward. I also add Moyer to this class because he hadn't played last year. Everyone wants immediate gratification, but I think a year or two with this core, plus Taurean Thompson and the transfer from ECU will have SU as one of the better teams in the nation.

 

[KevMonstah]

I think this class went from "depth and stars and SU rocks!" to "yikes, we need bodies, any bodies,
who have any skills and keep SU from becoming an also ran".

Which is too bad. The excitement of it would change immensely had it gone sidibe, brissett,
dolezaj, washington, [moyer], and one of those who ...


kev