Marrone

[JeremyCuse]

Whoever the Bills hire as a coach his first move should be to get Orton on the line and talk him into playing another year. With the lack of FA at the QB position and no 1st round pick the Bills are goin to need another stop gap year and we could do a lot worse then Orton.

 

[orangenirvana]

That stuff is such BS. You know how many teams punted less than Buffalo from the 40 in last year.

I'll save you the trouble, two, Green Bay and Washington. They had zero punts from the opponent 40 in last year.

You know how many had more, 24 teams, with two or more.

It's funny how the most strident are the most ignorant.

There were only four occurrences in 2014 where a team punted on 4th and 1 trailing by a TD or less with less than 10 minutes to go. The Bills did it twice.

I also know that at some point in the second half of this season Marrone was #1 in the NFL in 4th and 1 punts in the 4th quarter past their own 40, nearly 4 times more than the league average.

I'm not a big 4th down guy and I think there were bigger issues this season (the offense) but I think you're giving Marrone too much credit here.

 

[xc84]

That's what I was inferring? Really?

Ugh, follow along slowly...

You: "Having one with a rating of 88 ain't going to get you 12-13 wins. The Colts are a great example of why a good QB is critical."

Me: I would have settled for 10 or 11 wins. BTW, what was Luck's passer rating last season?

I thought it was funny that you're using Luck as an example for why QB play is important while at the same time using passer rating as a measurement.

But then after realizing Luck's passer rating last season was lower than 88, it's "whoops! never mind - passer rating doesn't mean anything, look at this guy inferring Orton is as good as Luck haha!".

You're right in that having a QB with a rating of 88 is not likely going to get you 12-13 wins. That's even tough to pull off with a Top 2 defense like the Bills had.

But it should get you better than the 27th best offense.

Glad I could amuse you. The main point is that a fair to middling qb (as Orton was) is not going to get you to the playoffs like an average team with a very good qb. Indy with Orton ain't a 10 win team. Maybe 6.

 

[GoSU96]

Right, who can forget all the 4th down attempts in opponent's territory this year [crickets].
Buffalo was the #1 whipping boy of the NYT 4th down bot...
The 40 stat is attributable to the small sample of a single season & the lack of opportunity...I guess most of the dumb punts were from the 42; sorry for rounding down..
Not that the point was ever that other teams are good at that stuff anyways..

You mean like how Buffalo had 11th lowest percentage of punts on 4th and short from inside the 50 last year.

All fourth downs between the 40 and 50, yeah Buffalo punted 22 out of 24 times.

Here's what some other teams did in the same situation.

NE 12/12
Seattle 14/15
Indy 13/14
Arizona 11/12
Dallas 8/9
SD 15/17
Philly 20/23
Pitt 13/15
Denver 12/14

All teams with better QB's and no better defenses did the same thing a defense oriented team did, and Marrone is dummy.

You people really are idiots.

 

[SUFan44]

You mean like how Buffalo had 11th lowest percentage of punts on 4th and short from inside the 50 last year.

All fourth downs between the 40 and 50, yeah Buffalo punted 22 out of 24 times.

Here's what some other teams did in the same situation.

NE 12/12
Seattle 14/15
Indy 13/14
Arizona 11/12
Dallas 8/9
SD 15/17
Philly 20/23
Pitt 13/15
Denver 12/14

All teams with better QB's and no better defenses did the same thing a defense oriented team did, and Marrone is dummy.

You people really are idiots.

Way to name call bud. Nice work.

 

[Millhouse]

You mean like how Buffalo had 11th lowest percentage of punts on 4th and short from inside the 50 last year.

All fourth downs between the 40 and 50, yeah Buffalo punted 22 out of 24 times.

Here's what some other teams did in the same situation.

NE 12/12
Seattle 14/15
Indy 13/14
Arizona 11/12
Dallas 8/9
SD 15/17
Philly 20/23
Pitt 13/15
Denver 12/14

All teams with better QB's and no better defenses did the same thing a defense oriented team did, and Marrone is dummy.

You people really are idiots.

that punt against the dolphins at the Miami 47 down 10 in the 4th quarter was real smart. most of those teams are winning in that spot but hey lets call it the same

good post! really smart!

 

[GoSU96]

that punt against the dolphins at the Miami 47 down 10 in the 4th quarter was real smart. most of those teams are winning in that spot.

good post! really smart!

Okay, there's one call in a 16 game season.

There was only one guy, and literally one guy, who approached this stuff like you and Jeremy White and Mike Schoop want it done.

He's now on the unemployment line.

 

[Millhouse]

Okay, there's one call in a 16 game season.

There was only one guy, and literally one guy, who approached this stuff like you and Jeremy White and Mike Schoop want it done.

He's now on the unemployment line.

harbaugh and garrett were pretty good this weekend

and it's one call given your constraints.

there have been plenty of others.

you don't have much margin for error with this stuff. the playoffs might've been within reach if he were smarter. 10 wins might've been within reach in 2012 if he were smarter.

we both know you pick your position based whether you think marrone favored it. hahaha watkins scored Marrone 1 you 0 hahaha oh wait marrone didn't want watkins, eh i never cared about the draft anyhoo

 

[wfschrec]

that punt against the dolphins at the Miami 47 down 10 in the 4th quarter was real smart. most of those teams are winning in that spot but hey lets call it the same

good post! really smart!

It would be very interesting to see what the score and situation were in each context ... i.e. how many times did those teams punt when in the 4th quarter and trailing vs what Marrone did. I would not be shocked if he was around the league average.

 

[rrlbees]

You mean like how Buffalo had 11th lowest percentage of punts on 4th and short from inside the 50 last year. All fourth downs between the 40 and 50, yeah Buffalo punted 22 out of 24 times. Here's what some other teams did in the same situation. NE 12/12 Seattle 14/15 Indy 13/14 Arizona 11/12 Dallas 8/9 SD 15/17 Philly 20/23 Pitt 13/15 Denver 12/14 All teams with better QB's and no better defenses did the same thing a defense oriented team did, and Marrone is dummy. You people really are idiots.

Does situation matter? Ahead or behind. Time left in game. Those are all pretty good teams who I'd expect were ahead more often than behind. You'll be more risky if you're behind.

 

[Millhouse]

It would be very interesting to see what the score and situation were in each context ... i.e. how many times did those teams punt when in the 4th quarter and trailing vs what Marrone did. I would not be shocked if he was around the league average.

here's one example. pro football reference has a great query tool

From 2013 to 2014, any team vs. any team, in the regular season, play type is punt, in the fourth quarter, between Team 40 and Opp 1, on 4th down, 1 yards to go, scoring margin is between -99 and -1

aka, who punts on 4th and 1 in the fourth quarter past their 40 yard line when they're losing the last two years.

5 such punts. Marrone has three of them. 2 this year. lost both times this year, won last year

http://www.pro-football-reference.c...location=DL&pass_location=DM&pass_location=DR

 

[wfschrec]

here's one example. pro football reference has a great query tool

From 2013 to 2014, any team vs. any team, in the regular season, play type is punt, in the fourth quarter, between Team 40 and Opp 1, on 4th down, 1 yards to go, scoring margin is between -99 and -1

aka, who punts on 4th and 1 in the fourth quarter past their 40 yard line when they're losing the last two years.

5 such punts. Marrone has three of them

http://www.pro-football-reference.c...location=DL&pass_location=DM&pass_location=DR

So are you telling me that the rest of the NFL is stupid?

 

[SUFan44]

So are you telling me that the rest of the NFL is stupid?

This doesn't make any sense. There were 5 punts in the NFL as a whole where a team had the ball on their own 40 or better trailing in the 4th quarter. 3 of them were made by the Bills. And the Bills lost two of those games, which is the difference between 9-7 and 11-5 (PLAYOFFS).

That leads me to believe that the Bills are doing something different than the NFL average, not the other way around.

Also, if you dig a little deeper using that tool, there were 151 instances of a team going for it on 4th and 1. 106 were successful. 70% success rate. I'd say, taking into account the clock and everything else, going for it on 4th and 1 trailing in the 4th quarter should be a no brainer. For some it is not, obviously.

 

[CuseHulk]

He wanted to leave and coach in the NFL (When the NFL comes calling) That's fine.

But what is not fine. Is when he pillaged and raided the Coaching staff, and cost us recruits (like Zach Allen, Augustus Edwards, among others)

 

[wfschrec]

Does situation matter? Ahead or behind. Time left in game. Those are all pretty good teams who I'd expect were ahead more often than behind. You'll be more risky if you're behind.

I changed the query to tighten the model .. here is what I see:

Since 1998 there have been 483 situations where a team was trailing by 10 or less with under 10 mins remaining with a 4th and 1-3 yards to go, ranging from their own 40 to the opponents endzone. Teams have punted only 48 times and that is in a two score ballgame! They converted their first downs in excess of 46% of the time. If you change that to 4th and 1 its 257 situations with only 23 punts and a conversion rate in excess of 52%. Buffalo themselves fell into that situation 6 times ... punted twice, threw once and ran three times. They converted 3 times and failed only once. Of those 6 only two happened on Marrone's watch .. both punts ...

 

[wfschrec]

This doesn't make any sense. There were 5 punts in the NFL as a whole where a team had the ball on their own 40 or better trailing in the 4th quarter. 3 of them were made by the Bills. And the Bills lost two of those games, which is the difference between 9-7 and 11-5 (PLAYOFFS).

That leads me to believe that the Bills are doing something different than the NFL average, not the other way around.

Also, if you dig a little deeper using that tool, there were 151 instances of a team going for it on 4th and 1. 106 were successful. 70% success rate. I'd say, taking into account the clock and everything else, going for it on 4th and 1 trailing in the 4th quarter should be a no brainer. For some it is not, obviously.

I was being sarcastic. If you look at my next post the case for punting is even worse LOL

 

[wfschrec]

Does situation matter? Ahead or behind. Time left in game. Those are all pretty good teams who I'd expect were ahead more often than behind. You'll be more risky if you're behind.

Apparently you can keep your punt inside the 40 percentage very low ... if you just don't even get there.

 

[Millhouse]

So are you telling me that the rest of the NFL is stupid?

ha yeah

last two years, trailing in the 4th quarter facing 4th and 1 past your own 40.

81 such plays.

Buffalo
3 punts, 2 runs/passes. 60% punt

The rest of the league
2 punts, 74 runs/passes. 2.7% punt

Marrone is more than 20x more likely to do be stupid in this spot as the rest of the NFL.

 

[SUFan44]

I was being sarcastic. If you look at my next post the case for punting is even worse LOL

Haha got it - sorry, sarcasm is tough to read sometimes!

 

[Full_Rebar]

He wanted to leave and coach in the NFL (When the NFL comes calling) That's fine.

But what is not fine. Is when he pillaged and raided the Coaching staff, and cost us recruits (like Zach Allen, Augustus Edwards, among others)

So he should have left those guys to be fired by Shafer then? None of those guys were captured and driven west on the Thruway- most received significant salary increases by making the 2-hr drive.

 

[KaiserUEO]

i dont think doogie will have a job this year.

at least not a real one.

 

[Millhouse]

I changed the query to tighten the model .. here is what I see:

Since 1998 there have been 483 situations where a team was trailing by 10 or less with under 10 mins remaining with a 4th and 1-3 yards to go, ranging from their own 40 to the opponents endzone. Teams have punted only 48 times and that is in a two score ballgame! They converted their first downs in excess of 46% of the time. If you change that to 4th and 1 its 257 situations with only 23 punts and a conversion rate in excess of 52%. Buffalo themselves fell into that situation 6 times ... punted twice, threw once and ran three times. They converted 3 times and failed only once. Of those 6 only two happened on Marrone's watch .. both punts ...

they were 5-3 and he decided to get really stupid the next two games putting them way behind the 8 ball against the AFC. get one of those games vs KC or Miami and things would've been much different

 

[wfschrec]

Here is the best part ... on the 15 opportunities in a 4th and 1 situation there were 3 punts under the conditions I described above. 2 were by Marrone the other was from Jax. In the other circumstances there were 12 plays run of which 7 were successful in converting a first down ... I like those odds ... a lot!

 

[Millhouse]

i dont think doogie will have a job this year.

at least not a real one.

jets might get pushed into going elsewhere, atlanta seems like a rex ryan fit. not sure about chicago or san fran

 

[wfschrec]

they were 5-3 and he decided to get really stupid the next two games putting them way behind the 8 ball against the AFC. get one of those games vs KC or Miami and things would've been much different

Oh what the hell do you know ... you're stupid remember?