Marrone

[Alsacs]

I think
NYJ will get Doug Marrone
Atlanta is going Josh McDaniels because of the GM/Front office connection to NE
Chicago will get Todd Bowles
SF will get Mike Shanahan
Buffalo will get Frank Reich
Oakland no clue
Rex Ryan replaces Mike Ditka on ESPN Countdown.

 

[SUFan44]

jets might get pushed into going elsewhere, atlanta seems like a rex ryan fit. not sure about chicago or san fran

Why will Jets get pushed elsewhere? Just curious

 

[wfschrec]

I think
NYJ will get Doug Marrone
Atlanta is going Josh McDaniels because of the GM/Front office connection to NE
Chicago will get Todd Bowles
SF will get Mike Shanahan
Buffalo will get Frank Reich
Oakland no clue

I could live with that. I like Reich and I think he would do well in Buffalo. McDaniels to Atlanta would be a disaster IMHO.

 

[KaiserUEO]

jets might get pushed into going elsewhere, atlanta seems like a rex ryan fit. not sure about chicago or san fran

exactly.

i think the groundswell against doogie will be too much for woody.

he wants to win the back page by being loved, not hated by half of NY before his new guy coaches a game.

dont think atlanta will go in that direction, SF certainly wont. i could see him chicago, but doubt it.

 

[Millhouse]

Come on Milly, this post ridiculous. We already discussed this -- that 2012 SU offense was rated 18th by football outsiders advanced offensive metrics, something you would love. That offenses struggled to score because it lacked explosive playmakers and was even worse with regards to the return game in specials. We ranked 83rd in explosive drives and were near dead last in punt and kick returns. That data is probably more indicative that conclusion than your Syracuse football coaches are stupid thesis.

i see them at 21st in their rankings but close enough.

those rankings are using expected points, i think. i think we all agree that it's odd that they scored less than they did based on their output. nassib's three game stretch against Minn, Pitt and Rut threw it off.

 

[Millhouse]

Why will Jets get pushed elsewhere? Just curious

heat from the media

 

[Capt. Tuttle]

This doesn't make any sense. There were 5 punts in the NFL as a whole where a team had the ball on their own 40 or better trailing in the 4th quarter. 3 of them were made by the Bills. And the Bills lost two of those games, which is the difference between 9-7 and 11-5 (PLAYOFFS).

That leads me to believe that the Bills are doing something different than the NFL average, not the other way around.

Also, if you dig a little deeper using that tool, there were 151 instances of a team going for it on 4th and 1. 106 were successful. 70% success rate. I'd say, taking into account the clock and everything else, going for it on 4th and 1 trailing in the 4th quarter should be a no brainer. For some it is not, obviously.

How did they lose? Did they never get the ball back? What was the Bills' 4th down conversion rate? Would having Spiller make a difference in the calls?

 

[wfschrec]

heat from the media

Want something even more mind numbing? The Bills during 2014 had 26 occasions where it was 3 and 1 or less ... they converted 69% of the time! Orton had a 118 passer rating and other than a sack they were able to typically convert on 3rd and short via the pass on 5 of those occasions. To make matters worse they ran the ball 19 times converting on 13 of those attempts :bang:

 

[Millhouse]

Want something even more mind numbing? The Bills during 2014 had 26 occasions where it was 3 and 1 or less ... they converted 69% of the time! Orton had a 118 passer rating and other than a sack they were able to typically convert on 3rd and short via the pass on 5 of those occasions. To make matters worse they ran the ball 19 times converting on 13 of those attempts :bang:

fred jackson might be washed up but the guy can get a yard

 

[TBCuse11]

i know there are alot of Doug supporters in here, but the guy is classless. He changes his tune every year to fit his next goal.

And really, sending a group text to NFL players who you coach to tell them you are leaving? What a slug. See ya Dougie...

 

[Millhouse]

i know there are alot of Doug supporters in here, but the guy is classless. He changes his tune every year to fit his next goal.

And really, sending a group text to NFL players who you coach to tell them you are leaving? What a slug. See ya Dougie...

eh what's he supposed to do, santa claus all over the country? appear in their dreams?

 

[KaiserUEO]

eh what's he supposed to do, santa claus all over the country? appear in their dreams?

exactly.

who cares? everybody knows on garbage day that there is not a guarantee anyone of them makes it back. players, staff, execs...

i really wonder what job he will have next year...


hahahaha, no i dont.

 

[OrangePA]

I agree with all that. But it does create some pretty messed up incentives when you pay a guy to find another job. That coach is much more likely to have a short term focus. Maybe the Bills could've paid him in the event that he got fired within some timeframe following an ownership change instead of paying.

with a dying owner and 4 million dollars to walk away, they pretty much guaranteed themselves a short term stop gap coach. maybe they would've been better off hiring someone else who didn't demand that out. everyone loves continuity.

Some coaches might've played Manuel the last game. Judging by the national media who never watch buffalo, doing everything he can to win the last week was the right move for him.

It's all fascinating.

Marrone wasn't paid to find another job.

The Bills ownership could have eliminated the uncertainty created by Wilson's death by demonstrating a true commitment to Marrone and his staff.

It was pretty simple.

Give him an extension, pay his staff, maybe give him a bit more say in personnel and there would be no need for Marrone to opt out.

The Bills are the ones that prompted what occurred - from what I have read.

And for all NFL coaches winning is life - that's their life blood - the job is torture when the team loses - not matter when or under what circumstances. A coach's wife used to say to me all the time - "it's not fun if they lose."

That need to win I'm sure trumps all else in this situation.

 

[TBCuse11]

eh what's he supposed to do, santa claus all over the country? appear in their dreams?

interesting. I have had more than millionaires as my boss and none of them sent a group text to their reports when they left. Ever. In fact, all of them told us all in person.
You either have class or you dont. Doug does not.

 

[CousCuse]

exactly.

who cares? everybody knows on garbage day that there is not a guarantee anyone of them makes it back. players, staff, execs...

i really wonder what job he will have next year...


hahahaha, no i dont.

G-Men , eh Kaiser.

 

[Millhouse]

interesting. I have had more than millionaires as my boss and none of them sent a group text to their reports when they left. Ever. In fact, all of them told us all in person. You either have class or you dont. Doug does not.

So you think he should have flown all over the country

 

[GoSU96]

here's one example. pro football reference has a great query tool

From 2013 to 2014, any team vs. any team, in the regular season, play type is punt, in the fourth quarter, between Team 40 and Opp 1, on 4th down, 1 yards to go, scoring margin is between -99 and -1

aka, who punts on 4th and 1 in the fourth quarter past their 40 yard line when they're losing the last two years.

5 such punts. Marrone has three of them. 2 this year. lost both times this year, won last year

http://www.pro-football-reference.c...location=DL&pass_location=DM&pass_location=DR

Let's see.

Against the Chiefs the punt with 7:30 down 4 pts from the Buffalo 41 resulted in an expected point gain of 1.03, KC pinned at the 5, an increase of win percentage from 16.3 to 21.8 immediately. By the time the Chiefs went three and out and the resulting punt was returned to the 25 the win percentage went up to 57.9.

Against the Raiders between the punt, where they had a 39% win percentage to where they had the Raiders 3rd and 22 the win percentage went to 55%.

Both times they played to the strength of the team. And they both resulted in an increase in Buffalo's chance of winning, which is the objective of the decision.

They didn't lose either of those games because they punted on 4th and 1.

 

[Millhouse]

Marrone wasn't paid to find another job. The Bills ownership could have eliminated the uncertainty created by Wilson's death by demonstrating a true commitment to Marrone and his staff. It was pretty simple. Give him an extension, pay his staff, maybe give him a bit more say in personnel and there would be no need for Marrone to opt out. The Bills are the ones that prompted what occurred - from what I have read. And for all NFL coaches winning is life - that's their life blood - the job is torture when the team loses - not matter when or under what circumstances. A coach's wife used to say to me all the time - "it's not fun if they lose." That need to win I'm sure trumps all else in this situation.

His contract paid him an extra four million to leave. For him to get that extra four million to stay, he needed a new contract.

His contract paid him to make a lateral move.

 

[KaiserUEO]

G-Men , eh Kaiser.

this actually sets up a scenario where he could come to the Giants.

1. doogie out of football for 2015.

2. Giants win it all in 2015.

3. Coughlin retires.

4. McAdoo promoted to HC.

5. Marrone in as OC without playcalling responsibilitys.

will never happen.

#5 is a unicorn (yes? no? keep it hoops?)

 

[Millhouse]

i would call this ironic if i knew what ironic actually meant (I'm convinced no one does, which might be ironic too, if i knew what ironic was)

With all the dream job stuff, I doubt anyone at Syracuse expected him to leave in 4 years when they hired him. Part of the reason Marrone left Buffalo was because he didn't like the media.

What if the much harsher media in NY put so much heat on the Jets that they opt out of what Marrone might've thought was a sure thing?

 

[Statesman1]

interesting. I have had more than millionaires as my boss and none of them sent a group text to their reports when they left. Ever. In fact, all of them told us all in person.
You either have class or you dont. Doug does not.

. Interesting story but there was a slight geography problem. Plus the Bulls put it out on Twitter practically instantly. Of all the things to get on St. Doug this is the weakest

 

[KaiserUEO]

i would call this ironic if i knew what ironic actually meant (I'm convinced no one does, which might be ironic too, if i knew what ironic was)

With all the dream job stuff, I doubt anyone at Syracuse expected him to leave in 4 years when they hired him. Part of the reason Marrone left Buffalo was because he didn't like the media.

What if the much harsher media in NY put so much heat on the Jets that they opt out of what Marrone might've thought was a sure thing?

this is absolutely happening.

and theres much more iron in your irony.

i could see wolf and casserly telling woody that the top candidate is marrone (hes not, humor me), but you will get killed in the media for it, so door #2 is someone from seattle...who wouldve been izdik's hire.

whats the word for double irony??? cause dis is it.

 

[Millhouse]

Let's see.

Against the Chiefs the punt with 7:30 down 4 pts from the Buffalo 41 resulted in an expected point gain of 1.03, KC pinned at the 5, an increase of win percentage from 16.3 to 21.8 immediately. By the time the Chiefs went three and out and the resulting punt was returned to the 25 the win percentage went up to 57.9.

Against the Raiders between the punt, where they had a 39% win percentage to where they had the Raiders 3rd and 22 the win percentage went to 55%.

Both times they played to the strength of the team. And they both resulted in an increase in Buffalo's chance of winning, which is the objective of the decision.

They didn't lose either of those games because they punted on 4th and 1.

they lost the raiders game because his offensive line is terrible

you left out the miami game too.

if the strength of your team is to stop people from scoring and the other team has scored enough, you probably should play to the weakness of your team.

punters always think about what going for it says to the defense but never think about what punting says to the offense.

that wasn't the only bad decision against the chiefs either. don't punt at their 41, maybe it doesn't come down to any of that.

 

[Millhouse]

this is absolutely happening.

and theres much more iron in your irony.

i could see wolf and casserly telling woody that the top candidate is marrone (hes not, humor me), but you will get killed in the media for it, so door #2 is someone from seattle...who wouldve been izdik's hire.

whats the word for double irony??? cause dis is it.

football is the only business where anyone actually listens to consultants. every other business, it's just a way to do something unpopular you wanted to do anyway without taking the blame.

 

[GoSU96]

they lost the raiders game because his offensive line is terrible

you left out the miami game too.

if the strength of your team is to stop people from scoring and the other team has scored enough, you probably should play to the weakness of your team.

punters always think about what going for it says to the defense but never think about what it says to the offense.

that wasn't the only bad decision against the chiefs either. don't punt at their 41, maybe it doesn't come down to any of that.

Based on the facts, how was either a bad decision? Both resulted in significantly tilting the win percentage back in their favor based on your advanced stats model.

You can't have it both ways. I pointed out that in wider data set Marrone was right in line, if not less conservative, than the rest of the NFL.

You want then you want to indict the guy based on a very narrow scenario and data set and when the facts and your methodology show that he made the right decision, which was playing the game in front of him instead of getting out the slide rule, you ignore it and bring up a single play that doesn't have anything to do with the scenario you are railing about.

Tresman approached this stuff the way you and the WGR geeks want to happen and it was a disaster.