More shots for Lydon, less for Cooney

[Dave85]

http://www.sports-reference.com/cbb/schools/syracuse/2016.html

Field goal attempts per 40 minutes through 6 games:
Cooney 13.6
Gbinije 13.2
Richardson 11.6
Roberson 9.5
Lydon 8.6
Joseph 8.6
Coleman 7.2

Nothing to see here.

I think you should concentrate on the last 4 games. The first 2 games the offense looked hurried trying to get used to the new 30 second shot clock. I don't think the first 2 games are a good representation.

I think the Cooney shooting percentage bashing has to stop. Anytime late in a tight game Cooney and G are going to get the ball. He's going to be the guy along with G. JB is going to go to his seniors.

 

[Brooky03]

Less than 36% from the field ain't good

FG% does little in the way of determining if a player is taking good shots.

 

[AlaskaSU]

This is an optimality problem. If my rusty calculus is right; and if we assume that the shooters with the lower percentages would increase their percentage if they were more selective, then the shots should be distributed so that all shooters have the same percentage. This also means that those with the highest percentage should shoot more until their percentage decreases enough to equal the team average. Maximum aggregate productivity occurs when each players marginal rate of productivity is equal, ie Pareto Optimality when each players MRP has the same derivative. Any mathematicians out there?

 

[Orangezoo]

For goddssakes. This is reaching. A simple pass would have better odds.

Cooley is a chucker with passionate defenders. I'm happy to see he is doing more this season so far, but he's still a chucker.

Reaching? Ok well given the fact Bilas knows a bit about basketball ( shocker) and brought it up in the telecast clearly he must be reaching because he is a die hard Cooney fan.

Cooney would be far from the first outside shooter to base whether he puts a shot up on whether he has guys under the hoop fighting for the board. The odds that he has a better outcome with a simple pass is the same in any situation. We could go back a decade to arguments over shots Gerry should or shouldn't take. It is the same thing.. a smart basketball player that sees the court well knows his teammates and makes a decision. Sure Cooney at times takes more shots than he should.. I wasn't arguing that one bit. However there are certainly times he is making that decision based upon having support under the hoop to grab the board or at least fight for it to prevent a run out off a missed shot.

Let me also add in that the nature of this team on offense is to find the open man and be aggressive. Cooney epitomizes that strategy and it has helped us get to 6-0. He definitely did a better job attacking the rim in the Bahamas and it would be nice to see him do more of that if he can take his man off the dribble again as part of the aggressive approach. Lydon's availability to get shots vs Cooney's are not apples to apples. They get them in different situations within the offense. Despite opinions Cooney shoots too much, opponents are still hounding him to keep a hand in his face. That attention comes from his aggressiveness. Lydon's open shots are also part of Cooney's aggressive approach. You dial him back and feature Lydon more and the defense will try harder to take him away which will likely bring that percentage down.

Too many variables are involved to simply just say Cooney should stop taking dumb shots.. or that taking them with coverage under the hoop is not part of his decision process. After 5 years in the program, anyone who has played organized hoops can tell you the game slows and those decisions are in front of you to make. Bilas is on point as usual.. Cooney has his flaws like every other player. LGO.

 

[Orangezoo]

This is an optimality problem. If my rusty calculus is right; and if we assume that the shooters with the lower percentages would increase their percentage if they were more selective, then the shots should be distributed so that all shooters have the same percentage. This also means that those with the highest percentage should shoot more until their percentage decreases enough to equal the team average. Maximum aggregate productivity occurs when each players marginal rate of productivity is equal, ie Pareto Optimality when each players MRP has the same derivative. Any mathematicians out there?

Not really calculus here just simple statistics. Cooney is a SG, Lydon a stretch 4. Their opportunities are created differently as are their responsibilities. As Cooney shoots less and Lydon shoots more, the quality of Lydon's looks will regress as will the number of opportunities. Given the probability of an opportunity is higher for Cooney to get a shot, then any reduction in rate of opportunity for Lydon is going to off-set the intended balance that the OP is implying should occur.

Really if you think about why a stretch 4 is so valuable it is because of efficiency. They often get better looks when they do get them and a quality player in that role converts at a higher rate. That role should not be as a volume shooter. Once it becomes a volume role then other areas are impacted like offensive rebounding, transition defense and overall efficiency.

 

[orangefan13]

Cooney and Lydon are fine where they are.
The last thing then need to be thinking is how many more shots can I take. This offense plays off each other.

Roberson is the guy who gets others doubled, when hes 25 feet from the basket they double the guys he can pass to and don't cover him at all. And he made uconn pay on a few plays for it and pressured Brimah out of the game.

imo
This is one of those things if it aint broke don't fix it and its going to take at least 4 losses to say its broke. And if that happens it won't be our shot selection that caused it. That doesn't mean you stop observing it though.

 

[cuseattle]

How soon people forget the difference between Jr CJ Fair taking shots as the third option than Sr. CJ Fair being the center of the offense.

Let Lydon grow into the role, let the team keep doing what they're doing. If it's broken down the road, fix it. The last think we need is a freshman doing more than he's supposed to and forcing him into a role nobody is sure he can handle. There's a reason to his success, and part of it is the other 4 guys on the court with him.

Agreed 100%! (And maybe your best post ever) Every great team needs a Soph/Junior CJ type guy.

 

[STEVEHOLT]

Cooney is a chucker. It's in his nature. It's not going to change. I do wish he had better shot selection but as a senior it would be hard for him to defer to a frosh, no matter the merits of the proposition.

What I do have a problem with is the number of stupid multi-screen plays we run for him as sets where he runs baseline and then cuts out to the perimeter.

That play not only rarely gets him open (because they know its coming from before the ball is even handed to the in-bounder) but is also detrimental on other levels

-it really forces him to exert a crap ton of energy just to catch the ball 22 feet away from the basket, as he basically sprints in a long arc under defensive pressure. The dude already never gets to rest on the bench, not a great idea to burn him out running these types of plays.

-Once he's completed his "route" It seems as though players just pass him the ball no matter if he's open or not, since the play calls for it. A not insignificant amount of the time the ball is deflected or goes out of bounds.

-It sets up jail break turnovers.

I just don't feel the risk / reward on that play result in a good ratio. He can pretty much get the ball in as good a shooting position in normal flow of the offense without premeditating it as much.

And he's not such a huge talent that we must do whatever it takes to get the ball in his hands. No sleight on him, there just aren't that many of those types of players period.

 

[STEVEHOLT]

"when hes 25 feet from the basket they double the guys he can pass to and don't cover him at all."

25? try 10. One of the posters calls his offense game robotic. That roboticism is a direct result of him getting the ball and expecting defensive pressure when there is none. They are literally standing under the basket and basically saying "what are you going to do about it".

I think he's better off just being assertive, catch, one dribble, shoot. EXPECT to be open and the shot becomes that much easier as you are already in rhythm.

Dont be fooled, all these guys can drill 15 footer after 15 footer when not pressured, if they are set and in the flow. Right now he's not quite expecting to be open when he catches the ball that close. The only solution is for him to either start hitting the shot at least at a 50 percent rate, or just stand under the basket and play 21 tip.

 

[orangefan13]

Cooney is not a chucker he was the isolation pull up game guy last year, this year hes the roll around tight release spot up guy. He will shoot maybe 1-2 jumpshots pe game off a moving dribble this year not counting end of shot clock heaves(due to him being our best free throw shooter and a solid ball handler).

He is like sophmore cooney spot up take your time when you have it and knock it down.

I give him a A to A- transitioning back to spot up roll around screen shooter. It would be A+ if he shot alittle better percentage. Anyone calling him a chucker is giving him a F by comparison and it couldn't possibly be any further from the truth. On top of that I give his overall game a A from B- to C+ for what he has added to his his driving, Passing, defense and hustle. He enjoys his roles and anyone that is not enjoying him is missing out.

You can bump this if we lose and everyone blames cooney when we are outrebounded, have less FG attempts and miss a few to many ft's while having only a pretty good shooting game.

 

[cuseattle]

"when hes 25 feet from the basket they double the guys he can pass to and don't cover him at all."

25? try 10. One of the posters calls his offense game robotic. That roboticism is a direct result of him getting the ball and expecting defensive pressure when there is none. They are literally standing under the basket and basically saying "what are you going to do about it".

I think he's better off just being assertive, catch, one dribble, shoot. EXPECT to be open and the shot becomes that much easier as you are already in rhythm.

Dont be fooled, all these guys can drill 15 footer after 15 footer when not pressured, if they are set and in the flow. Right now he's not quite expecting to be open when he catches the ball that close. The only solution is for him to either start hitting the shot at least at a 50 percent rate, or just stand under the basket and play 21 tip.

When I watch Cooney, I just watch a guy who gives his body, heart, and passion to his team and teammates every moment on the floor. My belief is the coaches are pretty strong willed, and if they asked him to take a different approach to his game, Trevor would do it willingly.

 

[orangefan13]

2 well known rules for shooters: shoot 'til you make it.
Shoot 'til you miss.

I hate the term heatcheck. And when players make two and get bad form/hitch on the third. It irritates me as much as the worst turnovers in college ball.

imo with this team, you shoot a good look when you have shooters. Lydon, Cooney, Gbinije, Malachi could take 15 3's any night if they are getting the looks they are.
I don't believe in, and there is way, way, way to much emphasis on hot cold with this team it doesn't exist for those four. Its either good look or not. If Kjo gets his form right he has a chance to join those four with a couple of good games.

 

[jncuse]

I hate the term heatcheck. And when players make two and get bad form/hitch on the third. It irritates me as much as the worst turnovers in college ball.

Making a miss on a bad shot in heatcheck, is equivalent to a baserunner in baseball making a stupid baserunning mistake going for an extra base in the same play that he drove a guy in.

They are stupid, but somehow they are forgiven because that player did something good before that.

 

[igor]

this offense is the best since melo. they can shoot and share. robertson if he's timid, he ruins the flo. he has to shoot. not pass to someone else when the clock is at zero.

 

[Millhouse]

we have 3 good shooters and our leader in attempts isn't one of them and is shooting .310 (same as last year)

i'm happy with the team but they need to fix that in ACC play

 

[NYCorange]

To echo what's been said above. Cooney is our Kobe Bryant (pre-2015). His shooting percentage is always going to be lower because he's the guy that guys look for at the end of the shot clock because a Cooney fadeaway 3 is a whole lot better shot than a Roberson conested 18 footer. Now, does he take a few shots here and there that you wish you had back? Sure, just like Kobe, but most of his low fg% is a product of his role in the offense. That said, as the year progresses, and the team realizes that they have other late shot clock options (Richardson and G), Cooney may end up putting up less contested 3s.

 

[Hogtowncuse]

Roberson needs to gain confidence in his 10-15 footer so teams can't play off him and clog the lane. Richardson needs to cut down on his bad shot selections especially when he takes it to the hoop and is challenged by a big. He needs to find the open man in these situations. When both of these start to happen (by Feb/March), this team will be very difficult to defend and will be a difficult draw in the NCAAs.

 

[Millhouse]

To echo what's been said above. Cooney is our Kobe Bryant (pre-2015). His shooting percentage is always going to be lower because he's the guy that guys look for at the end of the shot clock because a Cooney fadeaway 3 is a whole lot better shot than a Roberson conested 18 footer. Now, does he take a few shots here and there that you wish you had back? Sure, just like Kobe, but most of his low fg% is a product of his role in the offense. That said, as the year progresses, and the team realizes that they have other late shot clock options (Richardson and G), Cooney may end up putting up less contested 3s.

i just don't think that explains how low his shooting percentages are. explains part of it but not that much of it

 

[AlaskaSU]

Roberson needs to gain confidence in his 10-15 footer so teams can't play off him and clog the lane. Richardson needs to cut down on his bad shot selections especially when he takes it to the hoop and is challenged by a big. He needs to find the open man in these situations. When both of these start to happen (by Feb/March), this team will be very difficult to defend and will be a difficult draw in the NCAAs.

Drawing a foul on a drive is just as good and perhaps better than making the shot. Richardson's driving is a very valuable asset. My only criticism is that he makes too many unforced turnovers. I also note that his dribble is most unusual. He extends the ball far away from his body. So far, no one on defense has exploited this tendency.

 

[AlaskaSU]

Not really calculus here just simple statistics. Cooney is a SG, Lydon a stretch 4. Their opportunities are created differently as are their responsibilities. As Cooney shoots less and Lydon shoots more, the quality of Lydon's looks will regress as will the number of opportunities. Given the probability of an opportunity is higher for Cooney to get a shot, then any reduction in rate of opportunity for Lydon is going to off-set the intended balance that the OP is implying should occur.

Really if you think about why a stretch 4 is so valuable it is because of efficiency. They often get better looks when they do get them and a quality player in that role converts at a higher rate. That role should not be as a volume shooter. Once it becomes a volume role then other areas are impacted like offensive rebounding, transition defense and overall efficiency.

True, there would be other unintended consequences, but in terms of aggregate team shooting percentage, it would increase if Lydon and Silent G shot more and Cooney less. Mathematical models are just an abstraction, a bit of fun between games. (Statistics and calculus are compatible; a standard deviation is the first derivative. Different ways to skin the same cat.)

 

[orangepassion]

I didn't bring this up as a bash Cooney post. He's a good player and gives 100%. I just think he and the team would be better if we diversify a bit more and give more opportunities to Gbinije (who I believe is currently our best player) and Lydon and take some heat off Trevor. I don't know how you can ignore that Gbinije is shooting 53% from the field and 51% from 3, while Cooney is 36 % from the field and 31% from 3. There was also a big shooting % difference last year. It also helps conserve Cooney's energy a bit for the end of games.

There's never a good time to bring it up, because if you do it when you're winning, "hey, we're winning". If you do it when you're losing, "Where were you when we were winning"?

 

[CaliCuse]

I didn't bring this up as a bash Cooney post. He's a good player and gives 100%. I just think he and the team would be better if we diversify a bit more and give more opportunities to Gbinije (who I believe is currently our best player) and Lydon and take some heat off Trevor. I don't know how you can ignore that Gbinije is shooting 53% from the field and 51% from 3, while Cooney is 36 % from the field and 31% from 3. There was also a big shooting % difference last year. It also helps conserve Cooney's energy a bit for the end of games.

There's never a good time to bring it up, because if you do it when you're winning, "hey, we're winning". If you do it when you're losing, "Where were you when we were winning"?

I agree and like this post BHUT the key to to Gbinije and Lydon getting more shots is making themselves open enough to get their shots in the air. Its the same with Cooney. If Cooney has a clear shot and set to lauch, I don't want him to not take the shot.Spreading the ball around is good for the team snd if someone gets open they should take the shot. Throw Makachi in that group as well.

 

[CaliCuse]

this offense is the best since Roberson is slowly getting into the flow of the offense. He even took and made a short Jumper which up to that point was unheard of in his game. Taking it slow and easy is the right approach for this rebound machine.

 

[orangefan13]

Richardson has been awesome in the lane every time he drives, EVERY time.

 

[MikeSU02]

Would greatly help our FG %. Need to have Trevor be more selective to be really good. That is all.

LOL, good luck with this thread.

BTW, I agree with you (as part of a larger discussion of shot distribution).