Melodramatic absolutely owning Lebron

[jordoo]

OK I ran the numbers but I did not aggregate them (EDIT, I did figure out how to aggregate them). So here they are broken out by years. Here is the criteria used for it: FG% with less than 24sec on the shot clock in the 4th qtr or OT (in the first data set for this season I limited the attempts to more than 7 because there are a lot of guys who have hit 1 for 1 which skews the data for the guys who have taken more shots.) This is regular season and playoffs combined.


EDIT: This formatting looks awful again. I could't get the link to work to find the table image so I tried to use the preformatted-text and that obviously didn't work.
2011-2012

Rk Player Season Tm G FG FGA FG% FGX 3P 3PA 3P% 3PX eFG% Astd %Astd​

1 Derrick Rose 2011-12 CHI 7 5 9 .556 4 1 1 1.000 0 .611 1 .200​

2 Carmelo Anthony 2011-12 NYK 7 5 9 .556 4 3 5 .600 2 .722 1 .200​

3 Al Jefferson 2011-12 UTA 7 4 8 .500 4 0 0 0 .500 1 .250​

4 Paul Millsap 2011-12 UTA 6 4 9 .444 5 1 2 .500 1 .500 1 .250​

5 Joe Johnson 2011-12 ATL 7 4 9 .444 5 3 5 .600 2 .611 1 .250​

6 Marcus Thornton 2011-12 SAC 5 3 7 .429 4 0 2 .000 2 .429 1 .333​

7 Chris Paul 2011-12 LAC 6 4 10 .400 6 0 3 .000 3 .400 0 .000​

8 Kevin Durant 2011-12 OKC 11 7 18 .389 11 3 9 .333 6 .472 4 .571​

9 Dirk Nowitzki 2011-12 DAL 5 3 8 .375 5 1 4 .250 3 .438 0 .000​

10 Kevin Love 2011-12 MIN 9 3 10 .300 7 2 7 .286 5 .400 2 .667​

11 Paul Pierce 2011-12 BOS 5 2 7 .286 5 1 3 .333 2 .357 2 1.000​

12 Jason Terry 2011-12 DAL 9 3 11 .273 8 1 4 .250 3 .318 0 .000​

13 Kobe Bryant 2011-12 LAL 11 3 13 .231 10 1 5 .200 4 .269 1 .333​

14 Louis Williams 2011-12 PHI 5 1 7 .143 6 0 4 .000 4 .143 0 .000​

2010-2011 (to account for the longer season, adjusted min attempts to 9)

Rk Player Season Tm G FG FGA FG% FGX 3P 3PA 3P% 3PX eFG% Astd %Astd​

1 Michael Beasley 2010-11 MIN 8 5 9 .556 4 0 3 .000 3 .556 1 .200​

2 Dirk Nowitzki 2010-11 DAL 9 5 9 .556 4 0 1 .000 1 .556 1 .200​

3 Carmelo Anthony 2010-11 TOT 8 6 11 .545 5 0 1 .000 1 .545 2 .333​

4 Manu Ginobili 2010-11 SAS 7 5 10 .500 5 0 3 .000 3 .500 2 .400​

5 Kobe Bryant 2010-11 LAL 7 4 9 .444 5 2 5 .400 3 .556 1 .250​

6 Rudy Gay 2010-11 MEM 9 4 10 .400 6 1 2 .500 1 .450 1 .250​

7 Derrick Rose 2010-11 CHI 9 4 11 .364 7 1 5 .200 4 .409 2 .500​

8 Deron Williams 2010-11 TOT 7 4 11 .364 7 0 1 .000 1 .364 1 .250​

9 Stephen Jackson 2010-11 CHA 8 3 9 .333 6 1 6 .167 5 .389 1 .333​

10 Hedo Turkoglu 2010-11 TOT 7 3 9 .333 6 3 7 .429 4 .500 2 .667​

11 Tyreke Evans 2010-11 SAC 9 3 11 .273 8 1 2 .500 1 .318 1 .333​

12 LeBron James 2010-11 MIA 8 2 10 .200 8 0 5 .000 5 .200 1 .500​

13 Russell Westbrook 2010-11 OKC 7 2 10 .200 8 0 3 .000 3 .200 0 .000​

14 Kevin Durant 2010-11 OKC 16 2 17 .118 15 2 8 .250 6 .176 1 .500​

15 Andre Iguodala 2010-11 PHI 9 1 11 .091 10 0 0 0 .091 0 .000​

2009-2010 (min attempts 9)

Rk Player Season Tm G FG FGA FG% FGX 3P 3PA 3P% 3PX eFG% Astd %Astd​

1 Kobe Bryant 2009-10 LAL 12 8 15 .533 7 3 6 .500 3 .633 3 .375​

2 Brandon Roy 2009-10 POR 7 4 9 .444 5 0 3 .000 3 .444 0 .000​

3 LeBron James 2009-10 CLE 8 6 15 .400 9 0 6 .000 6 .400 2 .333​

4 Carmelo Anthony 2009-10 DEN 7 4 10 .400 6 0 1 .000 1 .400 1 .250​

5 Brandon Jennings 2009-10 MIL 9 5 14 .357 9 1 6 .167 5 .393 0 .000​

6 O.J. Mayo 2009-10 MEM 7 3 9 .333 6 2 4 .500 2 .444 1 .333​

7 Joe Johnson 2009-10 ATL 8 3 11 .273 8 0 1 .000 1 .273 0 .000​

8 Dwyane Wade 2009-10 MIA 8 2 9 .222 7 1 4 .250 3 .278 0 .000​

9 Aaron Brooks 2009-10 HOU 8 2 9 .222 7 1 4 .250 3 .278 0 .000​

10 Andre Iguodala 2009-10 PHI 8 2 11 .182 9 2 6 .333 4 .273 2 1.000​

11 Derrick Rose 2009-10 CHI 11 2 13 .154 11 0 2 .000 2 .154 0 .000​

12 Kevin Durant 2009-10 OKC 12 2 15 .133 13 1 10 .100 9 .167 1 .500​

13 Russell Westbrook 2009-10 OKC 8 1 9 .111 8 0 6 .000 6 .111 0 .000​

2008-2009 (min attempts 9)

Rk Player Season Tm G FG FGA FG% FGX 3P 3PA 3P% 3PX eFG% Astd %Astd​

1 Ray Allen 2008-09 BOS 8 7 10 .700 3 6 8 .750 2 1.000 6 .857​

2 Danny Granger 2008-09 IND 11 8 12 .667 4 4 5 .800 1 .833 5 .625​

3 Deron Williams 2008-09 UTA 9 6 11 .545 5 0 1 .000 1 .545 1 .167​

4 Brandon Roy 2008-09 POR 8 5 10 .500 5 1 3 .333 2 .550 1 .200​

5 Rashard Lewis 2008-09 ORL 9 4 9 .444 5 3 7 .429 4 .611 4 1.000​

6 Ben Gordon 2008-09 CHI 12 7 16 .438 9 2 5 .400 3 .500 2 .286​

7 Vince Carter 2008-09 NJN 10 5 13 .385 8 3 7 .429 4 .500 3 .600​

8 Paul Pierce 2008-09 BOS 12 6 16 .375 10 1 3 .333 2 .406 2 .333​

9 Kevin Durant 2008-09 OKC 10 4 11 .364 7 2 5 .400 3 .455 3 .750​

10 Devin Harris 2008-09 NJN 9 4 11 .364 7 2 4 .500 2 .455 0 .000​

11 Andre Iguodala 2008-09 PHI 9 4 11 .364 7 1 4 .250 3 .409 0 .000​

12 Tony Parker 2008-09 SAS 7 3 11 .273 8 0 2 .000 2 .273 1 .333​

13 Kobe Bryant 2008-09 LAL 10 3 11 .273 8 1 4 .250 3 .318 0 .000​

14 Raymond Felton 2008-09 CHA 11 3 13 .231 10 0 2 .000 2 .231 0 .000​

15 Kevin Martin 2008-09 SAC 9 2 15 .133 13 1 6 .167 5 .167 0 .000​

2007-2008 (min attempts 9)

Rk Player Season Tm G FG FGA FG% FGX 3P 3PA 3P% 3PX eFG% Astd %Astd​

1 LeBron James 2007-08 CLE 16 9 19 .474 10 1 3 .333 2 .500 1 .111​

2 Ray Allen 2007-08 BOS 10 5 11 .455 6 4 7 .571 3 .636 3 .600​

3 Kevin Durant 2007-08 SEA 8 4 10 .400 6 3 5 .600 2 .550 4 1.000​

4 Rudy Gay 2007-08 MEM 9 4 11 .364 7 3 7 .429 4 .500 1 .250​

5 Deron Williams 2007-08 UTA 7 3 10 .300 7 2 6 .333 4 .400 1 .333​

6 Hedo Turkoglu 2007-08 ORL 9 3 10 .300 7 1 2 .500 1 .350 0 .000​

7 Jason Terry 2007-08 DAL 7 3 11 .273 8 0 4 .000 4 .273 0 .000​

8 Michael Redd 2007-08 MIL 7 2 9 .222 7 2 8 .250 6 .333 1 .500​

9 Dirk Nowitzki 2007-08 DAL 8 2 9 .222 7 2 6 .333 4 .333 2 1.000​

10 Dwyane Wade 2007-08 MIA 10 1 11 .091 10 0 4 .000 4 .091 0 .000​

11 Joe Johnson 2007-08 ATL 8 1 12 .083 11 0 4 .000 4 .083 0 .000​

Ok, so I was able to parse out the data and aggregate it. So the above is interesting (primarily so you can see that it varies wildly year to year...see Kobe in 09-10 vs 08-09 or 11-12, but this analysis here should be more interesting. For the data below I did the following:

1. Same filter criteria as above ( 24sec or less on shot clock, down 3 to tied, 4th qtr or OT, playoffs and reg season)
2. Min attempts in 2011-2012=7
3. Min attempts in all other seasons (2003-2011)=9
4. If there were more than 15, I took the top 15 by FG% (I think there were only 2 seasons where there were more than 15 and several seasons where there less)

65 players return as a part of this data run. I then removed anyone who only appeared in the data set for one season. That leaves 25 players with more than one season in the Top 15 of this data set. I don't know what the right cutoff should be, but I am going to go with 3 or more (ie: appears 30% of the time from 2003-current). 16 players are left and here is that data:

1. Carmelo Anthony: .518
2. Brandon Roy: .466
3. Ray Allen: .437
4. Deron Williams: .393
5. Dirk Nowitzki: .385
6. Derrick Rose: .358
7. LeBron James: .355
8. Vince Carter: .349
9. Kobe Bryant: .345
10. Michael Redd: .333
11. Paul Pierce: .331
12. Jason Terry: .282
13. Kevin Durant: .281
14. Joe Johnson: .275
15. Dwyane Wade: .226
16. Andre Iguodala: .212

Some interesting items here. First, Jordoo...you're right. And you're even more right in the sense that he is by far the best. Good call. Second, the popular belief that Kobe is this cold-blooded assassin may in fact be true in that he is willing to take the shot, but he is far from the most effective at making it. Three, the popular belief that LeBron isn't good in the clutch probably is a bit over exaggerated.

Some other interesting things:
1. Top individual FG% of all 65 players in 1 season: Ray Allen in 08-09 when he was .700 (7 for 10)
2. In terms of attempts, the top 5 are Kobe (106), LeBron (81), Vince Carter (71), Kevin Durant (71), Joe Johnson (63)

Pretty much to be expected in terms of Kobe's willingness to take the last shot (same with KD). But also sheds some light on the premise that LeBron is not willing to take the last shot.

44cuse

​

Is this less than 24 sec left o the game clock in reg or OT?

 

[jordoo]

OK I ran the numbers but I did not aggregate them (EDIT, I did figure out how to aggregate them). So here they are broken out by years. Here is the criteria used for it: FG% with less than 24sec on the shot clock in the 4th qtr or OT (in the first data set for this season I limited the attempts to more than 7 because there are a lot of guys who have hit 1 for 1 which skews the data for the guys who have taken more shots.) This is regular season and playoffs combined.


EDIT: This formatting looks awful again. I could't get the link to work to find the table image so I tried to use the preformatted-text and that obviously didn't work.
2011-2012

Rk Player Season Tm G FG FGA FG% FGX 3P 3PA 3P% 3PX eFG% Astd %Astd​

1 Derrick Rose 2011-12 CHI 7 5 9 .556 4 1 1 1.000 0 .611 1 .200​

2 Carmelo Anthony 2011-12 NYK 7 5 9 .556 4 3 5 .600 2 .722 1 .200​

3 Al Jefferson 2011-12 UTA 7 4 8 .500 4 0 0 0 .500 1 .250​

4 Paul Millsap 2011-12 UTA 6 4 9 .444 5 1 2 .500 1 .500 1 .250​

5 Joe Johnson 2011-12 ATL 7 4 9 .444 5 3 5 .600 2 .611 1 .250​

6 Marcus Thornton 2011-12 SAC 5 3 7 .429 4 0 2 .000 2 .429 1 .333​

7 Chris Paul 2011-12 LAC 6 4 10 .400 6 0 3 .000 3 .400 0 .000​

8 Kevin Durant 2011-12 OKC 11 7 18 .389 11 3 9 .333 6 .472 4 .571​

9 Dirk Nowitzki 2011-12 DAL 5 3 8 .375 5 1 4 .250 3 .438 0 .000​

10 Kevin Love 2011-12 MIN 9 3 10 .300 7 2 7 .286 5 .400 2 .667​

11 Paul Pierce 2011-12 BOS 5 2 7 .286 5 1 3 .333 2 .357 2 1.000​

12 Jason Terry 2011-12 DAL 9 3 11 .273 8 1 4 .250 3 .318 0 .000​

13 Kobe Bryant 2011-12 LAL 11 3 13 .231 10 1 5 .200 4 .269 1 .333​

14 Louis Williams 2011-12 PHI 5 1 7 .143 6 0 4 .000 4 .143 0 .000​

2010-2011 (to account for the longer season, adjusted min attempts to 9)

Rk Player Season Tm G FG FGA FG% FGX 3P 3PA 3P% 3PX eFG% Astd %Astd​

1 Michael Beasley 2010-11 MIN 8 5 9 .556 4 0 3 .000 3 .556 1 .200​

2 Dirk Nowitzki 2010-11 DAL 9 5 9 .556 4 0 1 .000 1 .556 1 .200​

3 Carmelo Anthony 2010-11 TOT 8 6 11 .545 5 0 1 .000 1 .545 2 .333​

4 Manu Ginobili 2010-11 SAS 7 5 10 .500 5 0 3 .000 3 .500 2 .400​

5 Kobe Bryant 2010-11 LAL 7 4 9 .444 5 2 5 .400 3 .556 1 .250​

6 Rudy Gay 2010-11 MEM 9 4 10 .400 6 1 2 .500 1 .450 1 .250​

7 Derrick Rose 2010-11 CHI 9 4 11 .364 7 1 5 .200 4 .409 2 .500​

8 Deron Williams 2010-11 TOT 7 4 11 .364 7 0 1 .000 1 .364 1 .250​

9 Stephen Jackson 2010-11 CHA 8 3 9 .333 6 1 6 .167 5 .389 1 .333​

10 Hedo Turkoglu 2010-11 TOT 7 3 9 .333 6 3 7 .429 4 .500 2 .667​

11 Tyreke Evans 2010-11 SAC 9 3 11 .273 8 1 2 .500 1 .318 1 .333​

12 LeBron James 2010-11 MIA 8 2 10 .200 8 0 5 .000 5 .200 1 .500​

13 Russell Westbrook 2010-11 OKC 7 2 10 .200 8 0 3 .000 3 .200 0 .000​

14 Kevin Durant 2010-11 OKC 16 2 17 .118 15 2 8 .250 6 .176 1 .500​

15 Andre Iguodala 2010-11 PHI 9 1 11 .091 10 0 0 0 .091 0 .000​

2009-2010 (min attempts 9)

Rk Player Season Tm G FG FGA FG% FGX 3P 3PA 3P% 3PX eFG% Astd %Astd​

1 Kobe Bryant 2009-10 LAL 12 8 15 .533 7 3 6 .500 3 .633 3 .375​

2 Brandon Roy 2009-10 POR 7 4 9 .444 5 0 3 .000 3 .444 0 .000​

3 LeBron James 2009-10 CLE 8 6 15 .400 9 0 6 .000 6 .400 2 .333​

4 Carmelo Anthony 2009-10 DEN 7 4 10 .400 6 0 1 .000 1 .400 1 .250​

5 Brandon Jennings 2009-10 MIL 9 5 14 .357 9 1 6 .167 5 .393 0 .000​

6 O.J. Mayo 2009-10 MEM 7 3 9 .333 6 2 4 .500 2 .444 1 .333​

7 Joe Johnson 2009-10 ATL 8 3 11 .273 8 0 1 .000 1 .273 0 .000​

8 Dwyane Wade 2009-10 MIA 8 2 9 .222 7 1 4 .250 3 .278 0 .000​

9 Aaron Brooks 2009-10 HOU 8 2 9 .222 7 1 4 .250 3 .278 0 .000​

10 Andre Iguodala 2009-10 PHI 8 2 11 .182 9 2 6 .333 4 .273 2 1.000​

11 Derrick Rose 2009-10 CHI 11 2 13 .154 11 0 2 .000 2 .154 0 .000​

12 Kevin Durant 2009-10 OKC 12 2 15 .133 13 1 10 .100 9 .167 1 .500​

13 Russell Westbrook 2009-10 OKC 8 1 9 .111 8 0 6 .000 6 .111 0 .000​

2008-2009 (min attempts 9)

Rk Player Season Tm G FG FGA FG% FGX 3P 3PA 3P% 3PX eFG% Astd %Astd​

1 Ray Allen 2008-09 BOS 8 7 10 .700 3 6 8 .750 2 1.000 6 .857​

2 Danny Granger 2008-09 IND 11 8 12 .667 4 4 5 .800 1 .833 5 .625​

3 Deron Williams 2008-09 UTA 9 6 11 .545 5 0 1 .000 1 .545 1 .167​

4 Brandon Roy 2008-09 POR 8 5 10 .500 5 1 3 .333 2 .550 1 .200​

5 Rashard Lewis 2008-09 ORL 9 4 9 .444 5 3 7 .429 4 .611 4 1.000​

6 Ben Gordon 2008-09 CHI 12 7 16 .438 9 2 5 .400 3 .500 2 .286​

7 Vince Carter 2008-09 NJN 10 5 13 .385 8 3 7 .429 4 .500 3 .600​

8 Paul Pierce 2008-09 BOS 12 6 16 .375 10 1 3 .333 2 .406 2 .333​

9 Kevin Durant 2008-09 OKC 10 4 11 .364 7 2 5 .400 3 .455 3 .750​

10 Devin Harris 2008-09 NJN 9 4 11 .364 7 2 4 .500 2 .455 0 .000​

11 Andre Iguodala 2008-09 PHI 9 4 11 .364 7 1 4 .250 3 .409 0 .000​

12 Tony Parker 2008-09 SAS 7 3 11 .273 8 0 2 .000 2 .273 1 .333​

13 Kobe Bryant 2008-09 LAL 10 3 11 .273 8 1 4 .250 3 .318 0 .000​

14 Raymond Felton 2008-09 CHA 11 3 13 .231 10 0 2 .000 2 .231 0 .000​

15 Kevin Martin 2008-09 SAC 9 2 15 .133 13 1 6 .167 5 .167 0 .000​

2007-2008 (min attempts 9)

Rk Player Season Tm G FG FGA FG% FGX 3P 3PA 3P% 3PX eFG% Astd %Astd​

1 LeBron James 2007-08 CLE 16 9 19 .474 10 1 3 .333 2 .500 1 .111​

2 Ray Allen 2007-08 BOS 10 5 11 .455 6 4 7 .571 3 .636 3 .600​

3 Kevin Durant 2007-08 SEA 8 4 10 .400 6 3 5 .600 2 .550 4 1.000​

4 Rudy Gay 2007-08 MEM 9 4 11 .364 7 3 7 .429 4 .500 1 .250​

5 Deron Williams 2007-08 UTA 7 3 10 .300 7 2 6 .333 4 .400 1 .333​

6 Hedo Turkoglu 2007-08 ORL 9 3 10 .300 7 1 2 .500 1 .350 0 .000​

7 Jason Terry 2007-08 DAL 7 3 11 .273 8 0 4 .000 4 .273 0 .000​

8 Michael Redd 2007-08 MIL 7 2 9 .222 7 2 8 .250 6 .333 1 .500​

9 Dirk Nowitzki 2007-08 DAL 8 2 9 .222 7 2 6 .333 4 .333 2 1.000​

10 Dwyane Wade 2007-08 MIA 10 1 11 .091 10 0 4 .000 4 .091 0 .000​

11 Joe Johnson 2007-08 ATL 8 1 12 .083 11 0 4 .000 4 .083 0 .000​

Ok, so I was able to parse out the data and aggregate it. So the above is interesting (primarily so you can see that it varies wildly year to year...see Kobe in 09-10 vs 08-09 or 11-12, but this analysis here should be more interesting. For the data below I did the following:

1. Same filter criteria as above ( 24sec or less on shot clock, down 3 to tied, 4th qtr or OT, playoffs and reg season)
2. Min attempts in 2011-2012=7
3. Min attempts in all other seasons (2003-2011)=9
4. If there were more than 15, I took the top 15 by FG% (I think there were only 2 seasons where there were more than 15 and several seasons where there less)

65 players return as a part of this data run. I then removed anyone who only appeared in the data set for one season. That leaves 25 players with more than one season in the Top 15 of this data set. I don't know what the right cutoff should be, but I am going to go with 3 or more (ie: appears 30% of the time from 2003-current). 16 players are left and here is that data:

1. Carmelo Anthony: .518
2. Brandon Roy: .466
3. Ray Allen: .437
4. Deron Williams: .393
5. Dirk Nowitzki: .385
6. Derrick Rose: .358
7. LeBron James: .355
8. Vince Carter: .349
9. Kobe Bryant: .345
10. Michael Redd: .333
11. Paul Pierce: .331
12. Jason Terry: .282
13. Kevin Durant: .281
14. Joe Johnson: .275
15. Dwyane Wade: .226
16. Andre Iguodala: .212

Some interesting items here. First, Jordoo...you're right. And you're even more right in the sense that he is by far the best. Good call. Second, the popular belief that Kobe is this cold-blooded assassin may in fact be true in that he is willing to take the shot, but he is far from the most effective at making it. Three, the popular belief that LeBron isn't good in the clutch probably is a bit over exaggerated.

Some other interesting things:
1. Top individual FG% of all 65 players in 1 season: Ray Allen in 08-09 when he was .700 (7 for 10)
2. In terms of attempts, the top 5 are Kobe (106), LeBron (81), Vince Carter (71), Kevin Durant (71), Joe Johnson (63)

Pretty much to be expected in terms of Kobe's willingness to take the last shot (same with KD). But also sheds some light on the premise that LeBron is not willing to take the last shot.

44cuse

​

Great research! looks like a LOT of work. I'm glad that I was right but also shocked at how low the percentage for most of the top players are. It makes sense I guess that other teams know who is shooting so the percentages should be low. IMO the star player you want shooting to win or tie a game with less than 24sec left is Melo without a doubt. This is where he is clearly better than everyone in the NBA.

As far as Lebron I think he is fading and will continue to not only in attempts but also conversion rates since sometime mid season last year with the heat. He's a great player but Melo since he has been in the league is as clutch as they come.

 

[44cuse]

Aren't the Mavs heavily into advanced stats? They even hired the guy who started 82games.com!

They are arguably the most into it. Cuban spoke on the panel at the MIT Conference. That's just another funny element of this thread.

44cuse

 

[KingOtis]

OK based on this I have decided that it's impossible to discuss this with you.

Enjoy.

That's OK. Reminds me of 15 years ago, back when McGwire and Sosa were chasing Maris, and I would bring up steroids. Some people just couldn't help themselves from acting like condescending douchebags.

 

[KingOtis]

Aren't the Mavs heavily into advanced stats? They even hired the guy who started 82games.com!

So what?

 

[jordoo]

.518 is pretty damn tits when everyone knows you are shooting it @ the end of the game for the tie or win!

 

[44cuse]

.518 is pretty damn tits when everyone knows you are shooting it @ the end of the game for the tie or win!

Agreed. .518 is awfully damn impressive.

44cuse

 

[44cuse]

Ha, I couldn't remember the exact wording and no chance was I going back through this thread to get it right

On the fixing games, is the assumption only Lebron gets games fixed for him? What if Kobe did?

I mean hell, I guess Dwayne Wade is considered a clutch closer because he has a title, and if you want an example of a possibly fixed series, I'd start with the 06 finals over any of Lebron's playfof series.

Exactly. That's one of the best parts of this. Not only is the NBA fixed, it's fixed against one guy.

44cuse

 

[jordoo]

Agreed. .518 is awfully damn impressive.

44cuse

Yes and per 48 minutes Melo is obviously not the best player in the NBA. There are a handful at least that are obviously better . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . But when the horn sounds or is close to sounding and the ball is in the air that is when Melo is the best player in the NBA. And for my money dollars to donuts he is also the best pure scorer in the NBA no matter how you want to funagle the stats. As a forward he has the most diverse and dependable overall repatuiare in the world.

 

[Fireball Jr.]

As a forward he has the most diverse and dependable overall repatuiare in the world.

Love that rapatuiare.

 

[44cuse]

Yes and per 48 minutes Melo is obviously not the best player in the NBA. There are a handful at least that are obviously better . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . But when the horn sounds or is close to sounding and the ball is in the air that is when Melo is the best player in the NBA. And for my money dollars to donuts he is also the best pure scorer in the NBA no matter how you want to funagle the stats. As a forward he has the most diverse and dependable overall repatuiare in the world.

I would agree that at the end of the game I would want the ball in his hands. AND the numbers support that. I don't know who the best scorer in the league is. If I really had to pick one, it'd probably be Melo, but Monta Ellis is pretty damn good.

44cuse

 

[jordoo]

Love that rapatuiare.

LMAO! I can't spell in English let alone a french word when I'm drunk.

 

[jordoo]

I would agree that at the end of the game I would want the ball in his hands. AND the numbers support that. I don't know who the best scorer in the league is. If I really had to pick one, it'd probably be Melo, but Monta Ellis is pretty damn good.

44cuse

Ellis is also a great scorer but if your picking Melo or Ellis Melo is just bigger and can score in more ways even though Ellis is much quicker and better on the perimeter. Durant is a better jump shooter than Melo but Melo is a better scorer IMO and his ability to be physical and put the ball on the floor are his advantages over Durant as a scorer.

 

[44cuse]

Ellis is also a great scorer but if your picking Melo or Ellis Melo is just bigger and can score in more ways even though Ellis is much quicker and better on the perimeter. Durant is a better jump shooter than Melo but Melo is a better scorer IMO and his ability to be physical and put the ball on the floor are his advantages over Durant as a scorer.

Yeah I agree with all of that. I have seen more of Monta Ellis than any player in the NBA over the last 6-7 seasons, so that's the only reason he is top of mind for me. I know in my heart of hearts that Melo is the best pure scorer (and have defended it here), but having watched what Monta can do is incredible. But agreed, Melo can just score in so many ways from the block.

44cuse

 

[44cuse]

Is this less than 24 sec left o the game clock in reg or OT?

It's both combined.

44cuse

 

[jordoo]

It's both combined.

44cuse

Nice, just making sure, Again great research! Thanks. I try to let my brain just kind of smoush the stats of all that I have seen. No real thinking just more overall impression.

I'll admit I watched way more NBA the previous 5 years than this season. I'm a bit behind the 8 ball this season other than the Knicks. Still its fairly obvious to me that whenever he wants to be Melo is the absolute best bball scorer in the world. I just wish he would want to be all the tima and also want to play D like he has been the last few weeks.

 

[44cuse]

Nice, just making sure, Again great research! Thanks. I try to let my brain just kind of smoush the stats of all that I have seen. No real thinking just more overall impression.

I'll admit I watched way more NBA the previous 5 years than this season. I'm a bit behind the 8 ball this season other than the Knicks. Still its fairly obvious to me that whenever he wants to be Melo is the absolute best bball scorer in the world. I just wish he would want to be all the tima and also want to play D like he has been the last few weeks.

No worries on the research. I've been wanting/meaning to do it for awhile and just needed the source data. The ridiculous discussion of this thread got me inspired to find it. I've always said the same about Melo. He is literally incredible when he wants to be.

44cuse

 

[KingOtis]

Exactly. That's one of the best parts of this. Not only is the NBA fixed, it's fixed against one guy.

I never said that.

 

[KingOtis]

Ha, I couldn't remember the exact wording and no chance was I going back through this thread to get it right

On the fixing games, is the assumption only Lebron gets games fixed for him? What if Kobe did?

I mean hell, I guess Dwayne Wade is considered a clutch closer because he has a title, and if you want an example of a possibly fixed series, I'd start with the 06 finals over any of Lebron's playfof series.

Of course Kobe did. Game 6 between the Kings and Lakers was the most blatant example in the history of the league. The Lakers' opening round series the next year against Minnesota was almost as bad. The calls got to be so awful, that on one play Wally Szczerbiak held his arms out, making it clear that he wasn't close to touching anyone, and they still called the foul on him.

Fix was definitely in for the 2006 Finals. Cuban's conduct said it all.

 

[NineOneSeven]

OK I ran the numbers but I did not aggregate them (EDIT, I did figure out how to aggregate them). So here they are broken out by years. Here is the criteria used for it: FG% with less than 24sec on the shot clock in the 4th qtr or OT (in the first data set for this season I limited the attempts to more than 7 because there are a lot of guys who have hit 1 for 1 which skews the data for the guys who have taken more shots.) This is regular season and playoffs combined.


EDIT: This formatting looks awful again. I could't get the link to work to find the table image so I tried to use the preformatted-text and that obviously didn't work.
2011-2012

Rk Player Season Tm G FG FGA FG% FGX 3P 3PA 3P% 3PX eFG% Astd %Astd​

1 Derrick Rose 2011-12 CHI 7 5 9 .556 4 1 1 1.000 0 .611 1 .200​

2 Carmelo Anthony 2011-12 NYK 7 5 9 .556 4 3 5 .600 2 .722 1 .200​

3 Al Jefferson 2011-12 UTA 7 4 8 .500 4 0 0 0 .500 1 .250​

4 Paul Millsap 2011-12 UTA 6 4 9 .444 5 1 2 .500 1 .500 1 .250​

5 Joe Johnson 2011-12 ATL 7 4 9 .444 5 3 5 .600 2 .611 1 .250​

6 Marcus Thornton 2011-12 SAC 5 3 7 .429 4 0 2 .000 2 .429 1 .333​

7 Chris Paul 2011-12 LAC 6 4 10 .400 6 0 3 .000 3 .400 0 .000​

8 Kevin Durant 2011-12 OKC 11 7 18 .389 11 3 9 .333 6 .472 4 .571​

9 Dirk Nowitzki 2011-12 DAL 5 3 8 .375 5 1 4 .250 3 .438 0 .000​

10 Kevin Love 2011-12 MIN 9 3 10 .300 7 2 7 .286 5 .400 2 .667​

11 Paul Pierce 2011-12 BOS 5 2 7 .286 5 1 3 .333 2 .357 2 1.000​

12 Jason Terry 2011-12 DAL 9 3 11 .273 8 1 4 .250 3 .318 0 .000​

13 Kobe Bryant 2011-12 LAL 11 3 13 .231 10 1 5 .200 4 .269 1 .333​

14 Louis Williams 2011-12 PHI 5 1 7 .143 6 0 4 .000 4 .143 0 .000​

2010-2011 (to account for the longer season, adjusted min attempts to 9)

Rk Player Season Tm G FG FGA FG% FGX 3P 3PA 3P% 3PX eFG% Astd %Astd​

1 Michael Beasley 2010-11 MIN 8 5 9 .556 4 0 3 .000 3 .556 1 .200​

2 Dirk Nowitzki 2010-11 DAL 9 5 9 .556 4 0 1 .000 1 .556 1 .200​

3 Carmelo Anthony 2010-11 TOT 8 6 11 .545 5 0 1 .000 1 .545 2 .333​

4 Manu Ginobili 2010-11 SAS 7 5 10 .500 5 0 3 .000 3 .500 2 .400​

5 Kobe Bryant 2010-11 LAL 7 4 9 .444 5 2 5 .400 3 .556 1 .250​

6 Rudy Gay 2010-11 MEM 9 4 10 .400 6 1 2 .500 1 .450 1 .250​

7 Derrick Rose 2010-11 CHI 9 4 11 .364 7 1 5 .200 4 .409 2 .500​

8 Deron Williams 2010-11 TOT 7 4 11 .364 7 0 1 .000 1 .364 1 .250​

9 Stephen Jackson 2010-11 CHA 8 3 9 .333 6 1 6 .167 5 .389 1 .333​

10 Hedo Turkoglu 2010-11 TOT 7 3 9 .333 6 3 7 .429 4 .500 2 .667​

11 Tyreke Evans 2010-11 SAC 9 3 11 .273 8 1 2 .500 1 .318 1 .333​

12 LeBron James 2010-11 MIA 8 2 10 .200 8 0 5 .000 5 .200 1 .500​

13 Russell Westbrook 2010-11 OKC 7 2 10 .200 8 0 3 .000 3 .200 0 .000​

14 Kevin Durant 2010-11 OKC 16 2 17 .118 15 2 8 .250 6 .176 1 .500​

15 Andre Iguodala 2010-11 PHI 9 1 11 .091 10 0 0 0 .091 0 .000​

2009-2010 (min attempts 9)

Rk Player Season Tm G FG FGA FG% FGX 3P 3PA 3P% 3PX eFG% Astd %Astd​

1 Kobe Bryant 2009-10 LAL 12 8 15 .533 7 3 6 .500 3 .633 3 .375​

2 Brandon Roy 2009-10 POR 7 4 9 .444 5 0 3 .000 3 .444 0 .000​

3 LeBron James 2009-10 CLE 8 6 15 .400 9 0 6 .000 6 .400 2 .333​

4 Carmelo Anthony 2009-10 DEN 7 4 10 .400 6 0 1 .000 1 .400 1 .250​

5 Brandon Jennings 2009-10 MIL 9 5 14 .357 9 1 6 .167 5 .393 0 .000​

6 O.J. Mayo 2009-10 MEM 7 3 9 .333 6 2 4 .500 2 .444 1 .333​

7 Joe Johnson 2009-10 ATL 8 3 11 .273 8 0 1 .000 1 .273 0 .000​

8 Dwyane Wade 2009-10 MIA 8 2 9 .222 7 1 4 .250 3 .278 0 .000​

9 Aaron Brooks 2009-10 HOU 8 2 9 .222 7 1 4 .250 3 .278 0 .000​

10 Andre Iguodala 2009-10 PHI 8 2 11 .182 9 2 6 .333 4 .273 2 1.000​

11 Derrick Rose 2009-10 CHI 11 2 13 .154 11 0 2 .000 2 .154 0 .000​

12 Kevin Durant 2009-10 OKC 12 2 15 .133 13 1 10 .100 9 .167 1 .500​

13 Russell Westbrook 2009-10 OKC 8 1 9 .111 8 0 6 .000 6 .111 0 .000​

2008-2009 (min attempts 9)

Rk Player Season Tm G FG FGA FG% FGX 3P 3PA 3P% 3PX eFG% Astd %Astd​

1 Ray Allen 2008-09 BOS 8 7 10 .700 3 6 8 .750 2 1.000 6 .857​

2 Danny Granger 2008-09 IND 11 8 12 .667 4 4 5 .800 1 .833 5 .625​

3 Deron Williams 2008-09 UTA 9 6 11 .545 5 0 1 .000 1 .545 1 .167​

4 Brandon Roy 2008-09 POR 8 5 10 .500 5 1 3 .333 2 .550 1 .200​

5 Rashard Lewis 2008-09 ORL 9 4 9 .444 5 3 7 .429 4 .611 4 1.000​

6 Ben Gordon 2008-09 CHI 12 7 16 .438 9 2 5 .400 3 .500 2 .286​

7 Vince Carter 2008-09 NJN 10 5 13 .385 8 3 7 .429 4 .500 3 .600​

8 Paul Pierce 2008-09 BOS 12 6 16 .375 10 1 3 .333 2 .406 2 .333​

9 Kevin Durant 2008-09 OKC 10 4 11 .364 7 2 5 .400 3 .455 3 .750​

10 Devin Harris 2008-09 NJN 9 4 11 .364 7 2 4 .500 2 .455 0 .000​

11 Andre Iguodala 2008-09 PHI 9 4 11 .364 7 1 4 .250 3 .409 0 .000​

12 Tony Parker 2008-09 SAS 7 3 11 .273 8 0 2 .000 2 .273 1 .333​

13 Kobe Bryant 2008-09 LAL 10 3 11 .273 8 1 4 .250 3 .318 0 .000​

14 Raymond Felton 2008-09 CHA 11 3 13 .231 10 0 2 .000 2 .231 0 .000​

15 Kevin Martin 2008-09 SAC 9 2 15 .133 13 1 6 .167 5 .167 0 .000​

2007-2008 (min attempts 9)

Rk Player Season Tm G FG FGA FG% FGX 3P 3PA 3P% 3PX eFG% Astd %Astd​

1 LeBron James 2007-08 CLE 16 9 19 .474 10 1 3 .333 2 .500 1 .111​

2 Ray Allen 2007-08 BOS 10 5 11 .455 6 4 7 .571 3 .636 3 .600​

3 Kevin Durant 2007-08 SEA 8 4 10 .400 6 3 5 .600 2 .550 4 1.000​

4 Rudy Gay 2007-08 MEM 9 4 11 .364 7 3 7 .429 4 .500 1 .250​

5 Deron Williams 2007-08 UTA 7 3 10 .300 7 2 6 .333 4 .400 1 .333​

6 Hedo Turkoglu 2007-08 ORL 9 3 10 .300 7 1 2 .500 1 .350 0 .000​

7 Jason Terry 2007-08 DAL 7 3 11 .273 8 0 4 .000 4 .273 0 .000​

8 Michael Redd 2007-08 MIL 7 2 9 .222 7 2 8 .250 6 .333 1 .500​

9 Dirk Nowitzki 2007-08 DAL 8 2 9 .222 7 2 6 .333 4 .333 2 1.000​

10 Dwyane Wade 2007-08 MIA 10 1 11 .091 10 0 4 .000 4 .091 0 .000​

11 Joe Johnson 2007-08 ATL 8 1 12 .083 11 0 4 .000 4 .083 0 .000​

Ok, so I was able to parse out the data and aggregate it. So the above is interesting (primarily so you can see that it varies wildly year to year...see Kobe in 09-10 vs 08-09 or 11-12, but this analysis here should be more interesting. For the data below I did the following:

1. Same filter criteria as above ( 24sec or less on shot clock, down 3 to tied, 4th qtr or OT, playoffs and reg season)
2. Min attempts in 2011-2012=7
3. Min attempts in all other seasons (2003-2011)=9
4. If there were more than 15, I took the top 15 by FG% (I think there were only 2 seasons where there were more than 15 and several seasons where there less)

65 players return as a part of this data run. I then removed anyone who only appeared in the data set for one season. That leaves 25 players with more than one season in the Top 15 of this data set. I don't know what the right cutoff should be, but I am going to go with 3 or more (ie: appears 30% of the time from 2003-current). 16 players are left and here is that data:

1. Carmelo Anthony: .518
2. Brandon Roy: .466
3. Ray Allen: .437
4. Deron Williams: .393
5. Dirk Nowitzki: .385
6. Derrick Rose: .358
7. LeBron James: .355
8. Vince Carter: .349
9. Kobe Bryant: .345
10. Michael Redd: .333
11. Paul Pierce: .331
12. Jason Terry: .282
13. Kevin Durant: .281
14. Joe Johnson: .275
15. Dwyane Wade: .226
16. Andre Iguodala: .212

Some interesting items here. First, Jordoo...you're right. And you're even more right in the sense that he is by far the best. Good call. Second, the popular belief that Kobe is this cold-blooded assassin may in fact be true in that he is willing to take the shot, but he is far from the most effective at making it. Three, the popular belief that LeBron isn't good in the clutch probably is a bit over exaggerated.

Some other interesting things:
1. Top individual FG% of all 65 players in 1 season: Ray Allen in 08-09 when he was .700 (7 for 10)
2. In terms of attempts, the top 5 are Kobe (106), LeBron (81), Vince Carter (71), Kevin Durant (71), Joe Johnson (63)

Pretty much to be expected in terms of Kobe's willingness to take the last shot (same with KD). But also sheds some light on the premise that LeBron is not willing to take the last shot.

44cuse

​

Awesome post my friend. Well done.

 

[44cuse]

Awesome post my friend. Well done.

Thanks D...much appreciated.

44cuse

 

[Knicks411]

So what?

You said Memphis was the only team into advanced stats and they hadn't gotten very far. Dallas is very into advanced stats and won the title last year.

 

[44cuse]

"There are players, coaches and owners who have suspected fixed outcomes - especially during the playoffs - over the years. This is nothing new. If you want me to provide examples, I would be happy to. But it's probably best reserved for another thread.

Donaghy outlined exactly what goes on. Go ahead and doubt him. But don't be surprised if and when he becomes the Jose Canseco of the NBA."

Those are your words. Sounds a lot like heresay and conjecture to me.

You dismissed advanced stats becasue they are not "universally recognized." Again, your words.

Help me out here. Or maybe we need to share our understanding of what a "strawman arguement" is.

Oh and great job RF.

No, you have it right.

44cuse

 

[44cuse]

Really great stuff 44. Also kind of funny that everyone calls Dwayne Mr Clutch late in games. The numbers would suggest otherwise.

Yes, but you have to remember: LeBron is second fiddle to Wade.

Better defender, better clutch shooter, better passer...

44cuse

 

[RF2044]

Oh and great job RF.

For what?