NBA Thread 2022-23 Season

[Knicks411]

Big markets can tend to do that, because players want to go there and will overlook things.

Becomes a little trickier when you are a small or mid-market team, when your push to a suitor is that the organization is strong and has a good and loyal culture.

I will give you an example - in the summer of 2018 a big story amongst the US Media who almost always ignores the Raptors was how Masai Ujiri (Raptors GM) did Demar Derozan dirty. That cut-throat / unloyal narrative lingered for a while, even if it was inaccurate.

To be fair, when Anthony Davis was on the block Boston was getting some heat for the way the IT stuff was handled and AD's dad was saying he didnt want to go there. But in general, agree.

Btw - Minnesota has been out of the first round of the playoffs 1x in 33 years. You make that Gobert trade 10 out of 10 times and if it makes the rest of the league mad, so be it.

I heard this on the Lowe post, and it certainly makes sense when you think about it, but it floored me the first time I heard it.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

I agree on your Mitchell point. Which is why I mentioned above the Knicks have to keep at least half their young player / draft equity in this trade, and I am sure they are aware of that. In hindsight it justifies their splitting the 11th pick in this draft into later picks as it may have more use in the future for trades.

As for Gobert, I can't fully agree with the all in move on a 30 year old that may be declining and I'm not sure about the Gobert/Towns dynamic in the playoffs. I thought it might have made more sense to go after another good defensive big, and kept the draft capital for another move over the next year. Edwards was still growing, I thought the push in move may have been better made next year.

Of course you are betting against another opportunity coming again (and that star wanting to play in Minny) so that justifies the move. So it goes both ways.

I still think they gave up way too much and not sure who they were bidding against for Gobert. Leaving out one of the picks + Kesler takes out a few chips you had to round out the squad later on. That being said that player or picks may not be difference makers. So if Ainge is being hard-nosed, its a hard call.



Thought the Wolves could have waiting a little longer to make At the same time thought lets say the overpayment was Kessler + one unportected

Eh, there's nothing about Gobert that's actually declining yet. The dude's been super healthy in his career and busts his tail. Father time is undefeated but I think there's just as good a chance he's in his peak for a few more years.

 

[jncuse]

Eh, there's nothing about Gobert that's actually declining yet. The dude's been super healthy in his career and busts his tail. Father time is undefeated but I think there's just as good a chance he's in his peak for a few more years.

His defensive analytics apparently took a fair decline last year. I heard this on a few podcasts in the past few week. The analytics guys still love him (he is an analytics darling), but they did acknowledge there has been a fair decline in standard defensive analytics and other at the rim or coverage metrics.

HIs standard counting stats (Points, Rebunds) have held steady.

Don't ask me how DPBM or defensive win shares are measured, or any of the other defensive crap... and there may have been other factors at play (Mitchell). But they were down a fair bit apparently.

 

[shandeezy7]

 

[OttoinGrotto]

His defensive analytics apparently took a fair decline last year. I heard this on a few podcasts in the past few week. The analytics guys still love him (he is an analytics darling), but they did acknowledge there has been a fair decline in standard defensive analytics and other at the rim or coverage metrics.

HIs standard counting stats (Points, Rebunds) have held steady.

Don't ask me how DPBM or defensive win shares are measured, or any of the other defensive crap... and there may have been other factors at play (Mitchell). But they were down a fair bit apparently.

Yeah, I don't do imaginary stats like that.

 

[jordville]

The final Summer League records...

I guess they went by point differential to determine the final (Knicks vs Blazers)...

 

[jncuse]

Yeah, I don't do imaginary stats like that.

I guess that's better then seeing those stats in hell!

 

[jncuse]

The final Summer League records...
View attachment 218386

I guess they went by point differential to determine the final (Knicks vs Blazers)...
View attachment 218387

Not quite final, I know Toronto is playing Milwaukee right now.

In terms of the final it was point differential. Apparently Toronto had to win by 18 yesterday to make the final... I think they won by 10. They were up 23 at one point, but blew it.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

I guess that's better then seeing those stats in hell!

Oh I'll see the folks that misapply them there.

 

[samspann1]

 

[Fireball Jr.]

Meanwhile, in western Monroe County, big brother was rockin’ the ‘stache & playing for pops Bill Van Gundy at SUNY Brockport.

 

[Fireball Jr.]

I love Joel Embiid.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

Thought this had some good info.

 

[jncuse]

Thought this had some good info.

I would say teams trading stars getting a massive bounty, especially draft bounty, is more of a post 2010 thing, that was even set off more by the Paul George trade in 2019.

Some of the costs to obtain stars prior to 2010 were not always that high - Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen, Pau Gasol, Vince Carter ... and if we go way back - Charles Barkley. The packages that Boston had to give up for Garnett and Allen pales in comparison to some of the mega-bounties we see today. Celtics received a lot of value from young players who put up numbers on a 23 win team -- they had to play somebody.


For Ray Allen - On draft night in 2007, the Celtics selected Jeff Green with that No. 5 pick, immediately moving the Georgetown star forward to the Seattle Supersonics along with Wally Szczerbiak, Delonte West and a 2008 second-round pick in exchange for sharpshooting guard Ray Allen and Glen Davis. So basically a 5th overall pick (in a not so strong draft), a second round pick, a B level prospect in Delonte West, and salary filler in Wally who was in serious decline at the age of 29.

For Kevin Garnett - On July 31, 2007, Boston sent Al Jefferson, Ryan Gomes, Gerald Green, Theo Ratliff, Sebastian Telfair and two 2009 first-round picks to the Minnesota Timberwolves for Kevin Garnett. The first things that stands out is only two 2009 first round picks...although one of them was a valuable Minny 2009 pick that Minny had given to the Celts in the first place a few years earlier with zero protection for Ricky Davis. Al Jefferson was a solid piece that was helped by being able to put up numbers on a bad team. The rest of the package was largely sluff.


Anyway, while I was looking up the return in the Kevin Garnett deal (Minny-Boston), and I came across this article from the Garnett-Pierce to Nets deal in the summer of 2013. At the time the author gave the Nets and A in the deal, and Boston a B. Oops.

Celtics-Nets Blockbuster Trade: Grading Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce to Brooklyn

The Boston Celtics are sending Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce to the Brooklyn Nets, but which side got the better of this star-studded trade? After a long day's worth of news ...

bleacherreport.com

 

[OttoinGrotto]

I would say teams trading stars getting a massive bounty, especially draft bounty, is more of a post 2010 thing, that was even set off more by the Paul George trade in 2019.

Some of the costs to obtain stars prior to 2010 were not always that high - Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen, Pau Gasol, Vince Carter ... and if we go way back - Charles Barkley. The packages that Boston had to give up for Garnett and Allen pales in comparison to some of the mega-bounties we see today. Celtics received a lot of value from young players who put up numbers on a 23 win team -- they had to play somebody.


For Ray Allen - On draft night in 2007, the Celtics selected Jeff Green with that No. 5 pick, immediately moving the Georgetown star forward to the Seattle Supersonics along with Wally Szczerbiak, Delonte West and a 2008 second-round pick in exchange for sharpshooting guard Ray Allen and Glen Davis. So basically a 5th overall pick (in a not so strong draft), a second round pick, a B level prospect in Delonte West, and salary filler in Wally who was in serious decline at the age of 29.

For Kevin Garnett - On July 31, 2007, Boston sent Al Jefferson, Ryan Gomes, Gerald Green, Theo Ratliff, Sebastian Telfair and two 2009 first-round picks to the Minnesota Timberwolves for Kevin Garnett. The first things that stands out is only two 2009 first round picks...although one of them was a valuable Minny 2009 pick that Minny had given to the Celts in the first place a few years earlier with zero protection for Ricky Davis. Al Jefferson was a solid piece that was helped by being able to put up numbers on a bad team. The rest of the package was largely sluff.


Anyway, while I was looking up the return in the Kevin Garnett deal (Minny-Boston), and I came across this article from the Garnett-Pierce to Nets deal in the summer of 2013. At the time the author gave the Nets and A in the deal, and Boston a B. Oops.

Celtics-Nets Blockbuster Trade: Grading Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce to Brooklyn

The Boston Celtics are sending Kevin Garnett and Paul Pierce to the Brooklyn Nets, but which side got the better of this star-studded trade? After a long day's worth of news ...

bleacherreport.com

I feel like the vetoed Chris Paul trade also changed what's valued in these trades too.

 

[jncuse]

Oh I'll see the folks that misapply them there.

I think there are some good defensive analytics out there, especially those related to coverage (how one handles the PnR, how one defends at the basket) But the key is to understand context in how they are calculated in the first place (which may or may not be dependent on others around them performing or not performing), which could have well been a factor for Gobert's decline in numbers this year.

I'm not going to say I am good at interpreting defensive analytics or even the best ones. I really have no clue in that area - I just assume some teams are making good use of the shared or their internal analyiss -- teams that likely use them well for scouting, matchup and development purposes. But any good analytics dept they probably are not just rhyming off numbers -- they understand context as well.

Can't say I watch Gobert enough to know if he declined or not. I do know that 30 or so year old bigs do tend to decline fairly quickly once the decline phase starts...I'll trust your judgment as a viewer that the decline phase has not started.

 

[Knicks411]

I saw that Twitter thread as well, the only (very minor) quibble I had was you need to point out that the Paul George trade was basically also a trade for Kawhi. The return makes a lot more sense in that context I think.

Lowe had a story last week about the shift and how teams are much more willing to toss around first rounders than they used to be. I do remember a time where giving up more than 2 picks was seemingly unheard of.

 

[Day2]

Skip is just the worst. If he was sitting next to me at a bar and tried to engage me in sports conversation, I’d get up and move to the other end.

Would you at least fart in his general direction first?

 

[Day2]

I saw that Twitter thread as well, the only (very minor) quibble I had was you need to point out that the Paul George trade was basically also a trade for Kawhi. The return makes a lot more sense in that context I think.

Lowe had a story last week about the shift and how teams are much more willing to toss around first rounders than they used to be. I do remember a time where giving up more than 2 picks was seemingly unheard of.

Agreed. FWIW, so far those first rounders were used to draft Tre Mann and Jalen Williams (who, oddly enough, was on the Clippers radar as a player to trade up for). Along with SGA, we’re talking about three players who the Clippers still have a need for (unless Wall is the answer).

Given that SGA can’t stay healthy, it’s easier to move on from him. Jury is still out on Mann and Williams, although I’m happy with Brandon Boston and Terance Mann.

Clippers had to make the deal and I can’t imagine anyone in the FO having any regrets.

 

[jordville]

This is pretty hilarious...

 

[MikeSU02]

I saw that Twitter thread as well, the only (very minor) quibble I had was you need to point out that the Paul George trade was basically also a trade for Kawhi. The return makes a lot more sense in that context I think.

Lowe had a story last week about the shift and how teams are much more willing to toss around first rounders than they used to be. I do remember a time where giving up more than 2 picks was seemingly unheard of.

Yeah, a few issues with that thread:
- As you noted, the PG trade was to get Kawhi and PG. You do that every time. Kawhi was a top three player coming off that title, if not #1, in the league.
- Harden may be a malcontent and may not be his former self, but two things with that: his ceiling was way higher than Donovan's, the dude is infuriating, but he can straight up be an offensive system himself. Second, the Nets were giving KD and Kyrie whatever they wanted and they wanted Harden. So, like my first point, you're doing it for the full star package to keep them happy.
- AD, even if his nickname is street clothes, is much more impactful than Donovan. You're also doing it to make Bron happy and have him stay.
- As he notes, DJM isn't on the level of those other guys, so it is less than what they got... Obviously.
- Gobert is probably an overpay in a vacuum but there are a lot of FOs that LOVE him and measure him as a very important player and Minny has been out of the first round 1x in 33 years. Put a pin in this for a minute.
- Jrue Holiday, two things: Jrue holiday traded to the Bucks Nov 2020. Giannis signs max contract Dec 2020. YOU THINK THIS MAY HAVE HAD MORE VALUE BECAUSE IT KEPT GIANNIS IN MILWAUKEE? Also, Jrue Holiday would be like an 8x all star if he played in NY or LA.

Ainge is not taking Miami's offer. It's not good enough. The Knicks are negotiating against themselves if they panic. Do not mortgage the future for a guy who is ,at best, a #2 and depreciates Brunson and probably exacerbates Randle's issues. Unless there is the next guy lined up and it is fully dependent on getting Donovan, there is no reason to sell the farm on this. Leon and Wes have shown no ability to attract the absolute elite guys. Also, Thibs cannot coach a team with Donovan and Brunson as the starting back court. It won't work.

If you just want to say the Knicks have been bad for so long outside of a couple of blips and it's time to just be competitive, so be it (see the Minny note above). But otherwise we better have the next star lined up that's coming and the next coach to coach them, otherwise this is 45 wins and a 1st round exit level talent. We aren't doing this to make an existing elite talent on the team happy.

 

[Knicks411]

The Knicks do have something going in their favor that they have all these protected ones they can throw in that make the headline sound better but don't really mean that much. They just traded the 11th pick in the draft for "3 firsts". If they end up trading 5 first rounders but 3 of them are the protected ones, you could argue in a lot of ways its like they traded 3 firsts. If they got a deal done with 3 protected ones and unprotected picks in 23/25 thats "5 firsts" on paper but in most cases none of those will be even in the top 10, let alone top 5. (granted, I would have my doubts about the 25 knicks first, but they should be at least decent next season with Mitchell)

Obviously, if i'm Utah, I want those unprotected picks starting in 25 or so.

 

[MikeSU02]

The Knicks do have something going in their favor that they have all these protected ones they can throw in that make the headline sound better but don't really mean that much. They just traded the 11th pick in the draft for "3 firsts". If they end up trading 5 first rounders but 3 of them are the protected ones, you could argue in a lot of ways its like they traded 3 firsts. If they got a deal done with 3 protected ones and unprotected picks in 23/25 thats "5 firsts" on paper but in most cases none of those will be even in the top 10, let alone top 5. (granted, I would have my doubts about the 25 knicks first, but they should be at least decent next season with Mitchell)

Obviously, if i'm Utah, I want those unprotected picks starting in 25 or so.

I agree with you, for sure.

The way I look at it is that there are four star level or higher players available:
KD
Kyrie (I know...)
Donovan
Beal (it has to be coming, but this may be a next year thing)
Note - I know Bron is coming up on his contract, I'm not counting him.

If KD and Kyrie just return to the Nets for this year and Beal puts in at least a year before asking out, then Danny is holding the golden goose (relatively).

I'm torn. I like Mitchell, but man it feels like there has to be a next step after that and I just don't know how we get that next player.

 

[OttoinGrotto]

I agree with you, for sure.

The way I look at it is that there are four star level or higher players available:
KD
Kyrie (I know...)
Donovan
Beal (it has to be coming, but this may be a next year thing)
Note - I know Bron is coming up on his contract, I'm not counting him.

If KD and Kyrie just return to the Nets for this year and Beal puts in at least a year before asking out, then Danny is holding the golden goose (relatively).

I'm torn. I like Mitchell, but man it feels like there has to be a next step after that and I just don't know how we get that next player.

Upshot is... I think you have a long time horizon to figure it out.

Mitchell has a lot of years on his contract, and he will definitely resign when it's up. There's time to figure it out with him as a big piece of the puzzle.

I think the bigger issue is Thibs. He's good to turn a team around, but not so much to build something. And he wears organizations down.

Knicks need a much better long-term solution as HC. One thing that could be positive or negative - once Donovan is in the fold, he's going to push behind the scenes with the CAA team for Bryant to be the head man.

 

[MikeSU02]

Upshot is... I think you have a long time horizon to figure it out.

Mitchell has a lot of years on his contract, and he will definitely resign when it's up. There's time to figure it out with him as a big piece of the puzzle.

I think the bigger issue is Thibs. He's good to turn a team around, but not so much to build something. And he wears organizations down.

Knicks need a much better long-term solution as HC. One thing that could be positive or negative - once Donovan is in the fold, he's going to push behind the scenes with the CAA team for Bryant to be the head man.

I'm fine with the coaching change. Thibs did what he was supposed to. I think an amicable parting is in the cards if we land Mitchell and that's the way it should be.