Thursday Bubble Schedule and Game Discussion

[orangenirvana]

Didn't see one for Thursday so thought I'd make it. We're not out of this thing quite yet. If there was one created that I missed, please merge.

Games today - first team is the one we want to win.

12:00 ESPN - Virginia vs. Louisville
12:00 FS1 - Xavier vs. Saint John's
12:00 espn3 - Buffalo vs. Central Michigan
12:30 ESPN2 - TCU vs. Kansas State
1:00 SECN - Texas A&M vs. Alabama
2:30 ESPN - Clemson vs. Boston College
3:00 ESPN2 - Kansas vs. Oklahoma State
2:30 FS1 - Creighton vs. Providence
3:00 CBSN - Nevada vs. UNLV
3:30 SECN - Georgia vs. Missouri
5:30 PAC12N - Stanford vs. UCLA
6:30 espn3 - Toledo vs. Miami University
7:00 ESPN - Duke vs. Notre Dame
7:00 ESPN2 - Texas Tech vs. Texas
7:00 FS1 - Villanova vs. Marquette
7:00 --- - Middle Tennessee vs. Southern Miss
9:00 PAC12N - Oregon State vs. USC
9:30 ESPN - Miami vs. UNC
9:30 ESPN2 - West Virginia vs. Baylor
9:30 CBSN - Utah State vs. Boise State
11:30 PAC12N - Oregon vs. Utah

These are what I consider to be the 28 bubble teams. Approximately 15 spots up for grabs. I averaged all six metrics: Sagarin, KenPom, BPI, SOR, KPI, and RPI. Also included is the team's record vs. Quadrant 1 (wins vs. Q2, wins vs. Q3, wins vs. Q4).

1. Seton Hall - 25/27/26/23/29/28 = 26.33...4-7 (4,6,7)
2. Nevada - 35/21/28/33/23/14 = 25.67...2-2 (5,14,5)
3. Arkansas - 33/36/36/28/24/30 = 31.17...5-8 (4,7,5)
4. Virginia Tech - 37/34/30/32/38/62 = 38.85...5-7 (4,4,8)
5. Oklahoma - 36/48/43/38/31/47 = 40.52...6-8 (3,3,6)
6. Missouri - 40/38/46/45/30/33 = 38.65...6-7 (5,6,2)
7. Texas - 30/39/41/30/39/46 = 37.52...5-10 (2,7,5)
8. Florida State - 34/37/38/36/51/51 = 41.15...6-7 (1,4,9)
9. Middle Tennessee - 57/43/42/39/46/29 = 42.65...2-3 (3,7,11)
10. Louisville - 22/32/31/40/52/39 = 35.98...3-10 (2,8,7)
11. NC State - 47/41/48/37/44/63 = 46.65...5-7 (3,5,8)
12. Baylor - 29/33/35/43/54/59 = 42.15...4-10 (3,3,7)
13. Kansas State - 39/42/44/24/40/61 = 41.68...3-7 (5,7,6)
14. Saint Mary's - 43/29/29/49/58/43 = 41.85...2-1 (2,9,15)
15. USC - 44/46/49/61/33/35 = 44.65...4-5 (5,5,7*)

16. St. Bonaventure - 54/63/54/31/32/22 = 42.67...3-2 (4,7,10*)
17. Alabama - 52/53/53/64/26/56 = 50.68...5-6 (5,5,2)
18. Marquette - 46/50/45/41/48/55 = 47.50...4-7 (4,4,7)
19. Notre Dame - 24/28/32/52/60/64 = 43.33...2-8 (5,6,6)
20. Syracuse - 50/55/52/50/49/44 = 49.98...3-8 (3,9,5)
21. UCLA - 42/49/55/56/35/36 = 45.50...2-6 (4,8,5)
22. Arizona State - 48/44/47/69/37/65 = 51.65...3-4 (4,8,5)
23. Oklahoma State - 45/51/58/44/47/85 = 54.98...5-10 (4,2,8)
24. Penn State - 38/30/27/57/69/79 = 50.02...3-8 (2,6,10*)
25. Boise State - 56/52/57/55/59/38 = 52.83...2-2 (4,6,10)
26. Providence - 59/73/74/6/36/42 = 55.00...4-8 (5,5,5**)
27. LSU - 67/59/63/66/50/89 = 65.67...6-6 (3,2,6)
28. Mississippi State - 70/64/69/53/61/72 = 64.85...3-7 (3,6,8)

* loss to Quadrant 4 team
** two losses to Quadrant 4 teams

 

[jncuse]

I had no time for this yesterday or today. Thanks

It's crucial that at least 3 of the 5 bolded teams lose today,,,and I think we may need 4. Our current spot at 4th out is not good, but the only teams like to put upward pressure is Notre Dame.. so now we hope teams fall to our level, and we are chosen in the cluster.

Current Matrix
UCLA 74
USC 70
Providence 67
St. Mary's 62
Louisville 54
Arizona St 53
Baylor 47
--------
Marquette 43
Alabama 34
Oklahoma St 28
Syracuse 18
Urah 6
Nebraska 4
Notre Dame 4
Boise St 3

 

[jncuse]

As I type this, Alabama is up 54-42. Not good.

 

[Briancuse]

As I type this, Alabama is up 54-42. Not good.

They really don't belong in.

 

[djorange1989]

They really don't belong in.

they don't and they are now up just 1 pt at the under 4 timeout. hope A&M takes them out

 

[Alsacs]

Bama up 63-62 3:30 left.
A&M has momentum.

 

[MickGoCuse5]

And now Bama has taken the Mo back and is up 3 with 2:02 left. UGHHH

 

[MickGoCuse5]

A&M Nails a 3 with 4 seconds left to take a 1 point lead!!

 

[SoBeCuse]

Sexton!!!!

 

[SUOrangeSU]

WOW!!!

 

[MickGoCuse5]

Sexton hits a buzzer beater...Bama wins by 1. Got to be kidding me.

 

[SoBeCuse]

Sexton is freaking sick.

 

[MickGoCuse5]

That one hurts.

 

[orangenirvana]

Kansas State and Alabama both winning really sucks.

 

[rocfan44]

s e xton hits a buzzer beater...Bama wins by 1. Got to be kidding me.

How does no one step up and stop that ball?

 

[MickGoCuse5]

How does no one step up and stop that ball?

Especially since the refs were allowing a lot of contact in the final 2-3 minutes. That was Tyus Ednyeque though and give a lot of credit to Sexton.

Looking like it's just not meant to be, but until Sunday evening around 6:15pm, we'll keep hoping!

 

[orangenirvana]

UNLV beating Nevada at halftime 39-31. That would be another dagger.

 

[Sherman20]

I had no time for this yesterday or today. Thanks

It's crucial that at least 3 of the 5 bolded teams lose today,,,and I think we may need 4. Our current spot at 4th out is not good, but the only teams like to put upward pressure is Notre Dame.. so now we hope teams fall to our level, and we are chosen in the cluster.

Current Matrix
UCLA 74
USC 70
Providence 67
St. Mary's 62
Louisville 54
Arizona St 53
Baylor 47
--------
Marquette 43
Alabama 34
Oklahoma St 28
Syracuse 18
Urah 6
Nebraska 4
Notre Dame 4
Boise St 3

Louisville is not getting in. St Mary’s, Arizona State and Baylor could all arguably be left out. Even Providence is no lock. I believe their best road win is at Marquette.

I think Okie State, Bama and Cuse could easily bump those last 3 on this cutline. I know the committee doesn’t look at how you close out the season, but there’s no way thhe committee members don’t see how ASU completely collapsed the last two months and haven’t beaten a tourney team since early January. They’re toast, imo. At least Bama had lost to good teams during their slide.

 

[longislandcuse]

Grayson Allen otherworldly right now

 

[rocfan44]

Grayson Allen otherworldly right now

Ugh and I have to like it.

 

[PauliePeppas]

Trying to eat dinner and realizing I have to root for Duke

 

[blust2i3d4]

Louisville is not getting in. St Mary’s, Arizona State and Baylor could all arguably be left out. Even Providence is no lock. I believe their best road win is at Marquette.

I think Okie State, Bama and Cuse could easily bump those last 3 on this cutline. I know the committee doesn’t look at how you close out the season, but there’s no way thhe committee members don’t see how ASU completely collapsed the last two months and haven’t beaten a tourney team since early January. They’re toast, imo. At least Bama had lost to good teams during their slide.

Oklahoma State has RPI at 80. After the loss, their RPI will be near 90 tomorrow. They are in the conversation, just because the 4 way tie with Oklahoma, Texas and Baylor.

 

[longislandcuse]

These refs seem to think Wendell Carter is Pascal Chukwu.

 

[orangenirvana]

Middle Tennessee hanging on to a 3 point lead at halftime over 15-17 Southern Miss. I'm starting to wonder if they get left out if they somehow lose tonight.

 

[Vorony]

Louisville is not getting in. St Mary’s, Arizona State and Baylor could all arguably be left out. Even Providence is no lock. I believe their best road win is at Marquette.

I think Okie State, Bama and Cuse could easily bump those last 3 on this cutline. I know the committee doesn’t look at how you close out the season, but there’s no way thhe committee members don’t see how ASU completely collapsed the last two months and haven’t beaten a tourney team since early January. They’re toast, imo. At least Bama had lost to good teams during their slide.

I said this in another thread yesterday, but I'm not understanding how Providence is safely in or even on the bubble, according to some. They have 3 quadrant 4 losses. That's what basically kept us out last year.